Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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494 FXUS61 KBTV 191135 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 735 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move over the North Country today leading to widespread light rain and mountain snow. Higher elevation locations will see the potential for 3 to 6 inches of snow with a dusting to an inch possible in the valleys. Temps will remain below normal through the rest of the week before a warming trend begins over the weekend. Coming out of the weekend we should see near normal to slightly above normal temperatures along with dry conditions and plentiful sunshine. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 704 AM EDT Thursday...An upper level trough will swing through the North Country today with a surface low pressure tracking generally south of the area. By mid morning the upper level trough will move over the region and low level moisture will increase as the flow turns more northwest. This will lead to precip lifting north and becoming scattered across the North Country. The best chance for prolonged precip will be in the mountain areas but all sites should see measurable rain or snow. Snow levels during the day will be in the 1000-1500ft range during the day and then will fall to the valley floors during the evening hours Thursday. So a dusting to an inch of snow will be possible in elevations less than 1000 ft and in the high elevation sites above 2500 feet will have the potential for 3-6 inches of snow with the potential for the Mt Mansfield stake to get close to 100 inches by Friday afternoon. Because we`ll be dominated by the upper level trough through the rest of the week, we`ll continue to be well below normal with highs in the low to mid 40s. Temps overnight will be just below normal with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 352 AM EDT Thursday...A deep-layer trough will be departing to our north and east across the Canadian Maritimes/Newfoundland, with a prevailing NW low-mid level flow in place across the North Country. Should see lingering rain/higher elevation snow showers generally ending during the first half of Friday night (30-40% PoPs early) with decreasing moisture/cyclonic flow. Some partial clearing expected by daybreak Saturday with overnight lows generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The weekend generally looks seasonably cool and dry with high pressure across the Great Lakes gradually building eastward. Should see partly sunny conditions with highs in the mid-upr 40s on Saturday, followed by temperatures moderating into the upr 40s to lower 50s with mostly clear conditions and lighter NW winds on Sunday. Precipitation is not expected Saturday or Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 352 AM EDT Thursday...A deep-layer ridge will build across the northeastern CONUS early next week, finally setting up a warming trend for the region. Should see high temps in the mid-upr 50s for Monday, and into the low-mid 60s for valley locations on Tuesday (normal high for BTV is 57F). Next northern stream shortwave trough expected to arrive on Wednesday per 00Z GFS. Some indication of phasing with a srn stream system from the Carolinas, which would have implications for overall rainfall amts. The 00Z ECMWF has a similar synoptic pattern with possible phasing, though the evolution is about 18-24hrs slower. Too early to say, but a stronger, phased system with better influx of moisture would potentially have implications for moderate to heavy precipitation at the end of the period. We`ll be monitoring this potential. Anticipate high temperatures remaining near 60 degrees for highs on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...Generally VFR lowering to MVFR with periods of IFR possible in snow this afternoon and evening. Low ceilings currently are producing IFR at SLK but cloud cover should lift to low MVFR by mid morning before dropping again once snow moves this evening. Widespread light rain and snow will move across the North Country generally between 19-21z. Higher elevation TAF sites will see mostly snow with the lower elevation sites seeing a mix of rain and snow during the daylight hours transitioning to all snow and lowered visibilities during the overnight hours. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts through the period becoming west to northwest after 18z and perhaps becoming some what gusty at MSS with gusts up 15kts after 08z. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...Banacos AVIATION...Deal

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