Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 150531 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Occasional snow showers will continue overnight with the greatest snowfall over the northern Adirondacks and western slopes of the Green Mountains. Areas of difficult travel are expected overnight and into Thursday Morning. As temperatures warm into the 30s on Thursday, road conditions will quickly improve. Light upslope snow showers prevail mainly over the terrain on Thursday, before some drying develops Friday into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1036 PM EDT Wednesday...Only minor adjustments with the late evening update for temperature/snow shower trends. The Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 12Z Thursday. Will see additional light to moderate accumulations overnight, with snow again sticking to lower elevation paved surfaces/roadways as pavement temperatures drop. Should set up slow travel again for the Thursday morning commute, though impacts will be less severe than this morning. The highest snowfall overnight (3-5") will generally be along the western slopes of the Green Mtns and northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Continue to see snow of varying intensity across northern VT/NY as activity pivots cyclonically around vertically stacked low pressure neat the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Radar echoes and sfc observations suggest some convective aspects to the ongoing snowfall, but as low-levels stabilize overnight, expect more of an orographic character to redevelop across the nrn Adirondacks and along the wrn slopes of the Green Mtns. Expect activity overnight to become confined to the upslope regions of the northern dacks and western slopes of the greens...including the VT side of the Champlain Valley. Additional snowfall in these areas of 3 to 5 inches is expected with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches possible from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak. Water vapor shows deep cyclonic flow prevailing over the ne conus with plenty of mid level moisture. Our next piece of energy is just north of the international border per vapor trends and should be arriving across central/northern cwa btwn 02-04z. This energy combined with increasing northwest 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 30 knots will help to enhance upslope snow activity. Also...latest froude shows flow becoming blocked again this evening...supporting the snow shower activity back building into the eastern side of the cpv. As temperatures drop below freezing again overnight...expect snowfall to accumulate on roads and this will create areas of difficult travel again for the Thursday Morning commute. However...the areal coverage and intensity of the snowfall will be mainly confined to the mountains and eastern Champlain Valley. Temps mainly in the mid 20s to near 30f overnight with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. For Thursday...upslope snow showers will slowly decrease in areal coverage and intensity with some additional accumulation possible in the northern Dacks/Green Mountains. Thinking 1 to 3 inches is possible in the mountains...but impacts will be very limited, especially as temperatures warm above freezing. Highs mainly in the 30s, except 20s in the summits. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 353 PM EDT Wednesday...The large upper level trough will remain entrenched across the region on Friday and Saturday. A continuation of orographically enhanced snow showers will be seen along the northern Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Precipitable waters will be dropping through the period which hints at a decreasing amount of deep moisture. Several additional inches of snowfall will be seen across the mountains but valley locations will likely only see a dusting of snowfall at best. A modest northwesterly wind will blow on Friday and Saturday with a pretty impressive pressure gradient setting up across the region as high pressure builds across the region. Temperatures look to remain below normal as abundant cloud cover will limit insolation. Highs will be in the upper teens to lower 20s while lows will be in the single digits to mid teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 353 PM EDT Wednesday...Snow showers will taper off during the day on Saturday which will bring an end to the prolong snow event that has been observed so far this week. Temperatures will continue to range in the teens and 20s for highs and single digits to teens for lows through Monday before a change in the pattern begins to take place. Another area of low pressure will track across the central US over the weekend and will eventually push off into the eastern Atlantic on Tuesday. While models continue to struggle on the exact track of the low and the overall situation of the system, it`s beginning to look more likely the North Country may feel some impacts from the system. Just in the past 24 hours of model runs, models have shifted the low several hundred miles further north. This system is something to watch heading into next week but the system will move through much quicker than the past several as a stronger upper level jet should quickly push it out of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 06Z Friday...Mix of IFR/MVFR light snows through 12Z as moist west to northwest flow from 5-10 kts continues. After 12Z conditions gradually improve to a mix of MVFR/VFR as coverage of light snows/snow showers wane, holding on longest at KMPV/KSLK terminals. Winds remain west/northwesterly, though trend gusty from 15 to 22 kts during this period before abating after 00Z. Outlook... Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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VT...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002>006-008-009-011-016>019. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ001. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ029>031. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-034-035-087.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Banacos/Taber SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.