Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211119 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 719 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Clouds will increase through the day today as low pressure moves northeast off the East Coast. Some light snow will be possible for southeastern Vermont late today and tonight, but most of the impacts from this system will remain south of our region. Any snow accumulation will be an inch or less. Temperatures will trend closer to normal values for the second half of the week heading into the weekend as the coastal low helps to displace the high pressure that has been entrenched across the region over the past several days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 715 AM EDT Wednesday...No changes were needed with this morning`s update. High clouds are streaming northward ahead of the low moving up the East Coast, but precipitation will hold off until this evening as it will take a while for the column to saturate enough to allow any snow to reach the ground. Still expect any snowfall will remain limited to southeastern portions of our region, with little to no accumulation. The forecast has this all covered, so have made no changes with this update. Previous discussion...Still anticipating very little impact from nor`easter #4 with just some minor accumulations possible in far southeastern portions of our forecast area. Low pressure currently off the Carolina coast will push north and east today and tonight, moving very near the benchmark before being shunted eastward toward Nova Scotia on Thursday. Mid and high clouds from the low will spread across the North Country from south to north today while precipitation lifts northward into southern New England. Model guidance still differs a bit on exactly how much northwestward progress this precipitation will make, but the overall trend of keeping the bulk of any snowfall to our south and east seems reasonable given the dry airmass in place across our region. Light snow will approach our southern sections late this afternoon, with perhaps some flurries by early evening. Otherwise, expect just increasing clouds across the region with highs in the lower to mid 30s most areas. The steadiest snow will occur overnight tonight as moisture wraps around the low on northeast flow. However, the snow will remain light in nature since the best dynamics will remain off to the southeast, closer to the low center. Locations east of a Lyndonville to Rutland line have the best chances of seeing any accumulating snow, though even here most spots will only see a dusting, perhaps up to an inch in southeastern Windsor County. The snow will quickly skirt off to the east late tonight/early Thursday as the low moves southeast of the region and winds turn more to the north. Lows will be quite a bit warmer than previous nights owing to the thicker cloud cover, with most spots in the 15F to 25F range. Lingering snow showers will be possible on Thursday, mainly in the northern Greens and Northeast Kingdom owing to the better moisture feed and winds turning to the northwest. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. Otherwise, The mountains will remain on the cool side tomorrow, mainly in the lower to mid 30s, while the wider valleys, where some peaks of sun will be possible, will top out in the mid and upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 137 AM EDT Wednesday...No big changes for the short term time period. Low pressure system will be exiting to the East, and we will still be under cyclonic flow so maybe a few mountain snow showers around Thursday night. Upper level trough will also still be anchored over our region. Pretty quiet weather for Friday as well, and temperatures will be right around seasonal normals during this time period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 249 AM EDT Wednesday...Quiet weather continues from Friday night through the beginning of next week. Upper level trough will remain over the North country through the weekend, and ridge of surface high pressure builds from the North. Temperatures will slowly warm through the period, a couple degrees each day. Surface high will finally begin to slide eastward offshore Tuesday, and southwesterly return flow will help to raise temps above seasonal normals headed into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 12z Thursday...High pressure remains in control over our area and thus VFR conditions will exist through the period. Any clouds will generally be above 15,000 feet through 00Z Thursday. Then ceilings will drop to around 4000 ft as low pressure off the East Coast moves southeast of the region. Some local MVFR ceilings are possible at RUT and SLK after 00z as well, and perhaps some light snow at RUT overnight. Winds will generally be under 10 knots through about 18z...then mixing will result in gusts in the 10 to 15 knot range after 18z from the north and northeast. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.