Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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627 FXUS61 KBTV 182035 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 435 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass South of the North Country on Thursday with widespread light rain and mountain snow. A plowable wet snow accumulation is expected in the mountains Thursday into Friday. A slow warming and drying trend is expected by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 400 PM EDT Wednesday...Deep closed upper level low continues to lift Northeastward and away from Northern New England this afternoon. Snow and rain showers have mostly ended across our area as the low moves further away, but still some residual moisture across the Northern Greens. The next low pressure system is approaching from the Southern Great Lakes region, and will track South of our region on Thursday. Overnight, this low will approach and clouds and moisture will increase ahead of it. Light precipitation will spread northward during the day Thursday, and will be reaching our Southern zones by Thursday morning, have precipitation likely by 8am across Southern Vermont. Overnight minimum temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Any precipitation that falls overnight will be in the form of snow. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 PM EDT Wednesday...Low will be passing south of our area Thursday morning. Light snow will spread from South to North across the area. First round of precipitation will move east of the CWA mid morning, with a brief break before more scattered rain and snow develops Thursday afternoon and into Friday with improving forcing developing as upper level trough passes overhead. Surface flow will become northwesterly as low passes east of New England, with more light rain and snow shower activity developing. Still looks like best chance for accumulating snow will be above 2000 feet on Thursday with several inches expected. Snow level will lower overnight to about 1200 feet. With plenty of moisture mountain upslope snow continues through the overnight hours and into Friday. Precipitation will wind down later Friday into the early part of Friday night with decreasing moisture. Warmer and drier air will return following the departure of this upper level low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 237 PM EDT Wednesday...Our delivery of spring weather will finally arrive after a few weeks of being lost in the mail, as high pressure will continue to build into the North Country over the weekend. While Saturday will see decreasing clouds, northwesterly winds will keep temperatures still below normal as the high approaches. Sunday will see the warm air advection start to build in and temps warm to the 50s in some of the valleys. By Monday the area should be near normal with widespread 50s and mostly clear skies. Tuesday and Wednesday see the trend continue with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. The combination of high pressure, light winds, and warm temps will lead to several days with low afternoon relative humidities in the 25-30% range. Overall, a nice beginning to next week before another potential round of midweek showers. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Snow showers have ended at our TAF sites for today, but winds continue to gust out of the west northwest. VFR conditions at most locations now, save for SLK which still has MVFR ceilings. SLK will likely stay down overnight. Snow will spread south to north across the area early Thursday morning. Have VCSH mentioned at all TAF sites. Will fine tune timing of snow beginning as we get closer to 12z. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN, Likely RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely SN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Neiles

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