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509
FXUS61 KBTV 072339
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
739 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue into the afternoon with
heat indices in the low to mid 90s ahead of some showers and
thunderstorms. Some of these storms which may be strong or
severe this afternoon with periods of heavy rainfall and gusty
winds possible. The weather turns quieter later this week, with
slightly above average temperatures and occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 737 PM EDT Monday...We have ended the Heat Advisory today
as the hottest temperatures have already occurred today. We
expect temperatures and heat indices to continue falling
throughout this evening. Showers and thunderstorms this evening,
some of which may be strong or severe, could yield periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Localized flooding may be possible,
particularly in locations that receive several rounds of
precipitation. Please continue to stay weather aware tonight.

Previous discussion...Hot and humid conditions are ongoing east
of the Adirondacks ahead of a slow moving frontal system. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms have begun to develop across the St.
Lawrence Valley and portions of the northern Adirondacks dropping
temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s. Outside of the current
shower activity, temperatures are in the upper 80s to near 90 with
dewpoints near 70. As a result, a heat advisory for heat indices
in the mid 90s remains in effect until 8 PM for the Champlain
Valley. To stay safe in these conditions, be sure to stay
hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outdoors.

This environment will be ripe for thunderstorm development through
the afternoon and evening. Current surface CAPE values are near 1500
J/kg with Pwats around 1.5-2." Deep warm layer cloud depths with the
enhanced precipitable water will create favorable conditions
for torrential downpours and some localized flooding into the
evening, particularly across northern New York and northern
Vermont. With the orientation of the front and prevailing
synoptic flow, slower moving training storms are also
anticipated which could further the localized flooding threat.
In addition to the heavy rain potential, the nose of the LLJ
will be over the St. Lawrence Valley which could help mix down
some gusty winds under any thunderstorms. Southerly channeled
flow in the Champlain Valley has already led to gusts 25- 30
mph. One concern with the winds is that DCAPE values are around
1000 J/kg out ahead of the system which would enhance any gusty
winds and heavy rains. While we are not expecting widespread
severe weather, an few isolated strong to severe storms are
possible. Be sure to stay weather this afternoon, especially if
you have outdoor plans. Shower activity will continue into the
overnight, but the strongest storms should weaken beyond sunset
as they will mainly be diurnally driven. Overnight lows will
generally be in the 60s to near 70 in southern Vermont.

Tomorrow, the boundary continues its slow progression to the
southeast centering itself over southern Vermont into southern New
England. Latest CAMs suggest the main axis of moisture should be
just south of our area into parts of Massachusetts and NH by Tuesday
afternoon which will help limit any stronger showers tomorrow.
However, some lingering morning showers and a stray afternoon
shower/thunderstorm in extreme southern Windsor County cannot be
ruled out. Highs tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than today with
values in the mid to upper 70s and lower dewpoints into the low to
mid 60s. The area will begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon with
decreasing cloud cover into Tuesday evening as temperatures drop
into the upper 50s to near 60.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Monday...Seasonable temperatures but unsettled
weather will begin to set up in the mid-week. Zonal flow between a
ridge across the south and a trough axis across northern Quebec will
allow a few shortwaves to progress across the area. Chance showers
and possibly a rumble of thunder are forecasted across much of
eastern Vermont by Wednesday afternoon and across northern New York
by Wednesday night, but where showers and thunderstorms set up
remains in question based on the uncertainty in the overall
ingredients and instability. While showers are forecasted,
dewpoints will feel considerably more comfortable with values in
the upper 50s to near 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 221 PM EDT Monday...Temperatures will be a bit warmer than
seasonal normals from Thursday through Monday with high temperatures
generally in the 80s with low temperatures in the 60s areawide. The
best chance for some precipitation will be on Thursday, before a
general drying trend takes over. There will be several upper level
shortwaves and weak surface boundaries that cross the area, but no
significant weather systems to look at just yet. On Thursday an
upper level trough with some shortwave energy will provide the
highest chance for showers in the extended. There`s still a lot of
uncertainty four days out, but will monitor potential as we get
closer for any organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 00Z Wednesday...Lines of thunderstorms are currently
crossing the forecast area this evening, producing a variety of
conditions. We can expect showers and thunderstorms to continue
on and off through about 03Z-08Z Tuesday. Wind direction ahead
of the front powering these storms is out of the south, but
behind the front we`ve turned northerly. We may continue to see
gusty winds associated with any strong thunderstorm. Outside of
thunderstorms, gusts are expected to decrease by about 03Z
Tuesday and we should see prevailing northerly winds up to 10
knots. We`re also seeing cloud ceilings lower behind this cold
front where many sites across northern New York already have
cigs 600-900 feet above ground level. These clouds are expected
to expand across the entire forecast area overnight tonight,
bringing IFR conditions to all sites by about 04Z-08Z Tuesday.
As cloud layers lower, we could even see some restrictions to
visibility and mist or fog develop at some sites. Confidence is
lower on the exact timing of this low stratus lifting, but
generally thinking MVFR or higher conditions returning by about
12Z-16Z with MSS the first to improve, potentially ahead of this
timetable. VFR conditions likely by the end of the 24 hour TAF
period.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None.
NY...None.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig/Storm
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm