Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 181753 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 153 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... One last dry day today before this weekend brings rain and cooler temperatures in as low pressure lifts northeastward from the Ohio Valley into New York and New England. Next week will see a return to drier conditions and above normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 144 PM EDT Friday...Clear skies and generally northerly flow will continue through the rest of the day. Current forecast is in good shape with no changes needed. Previous discussion...Dry weather hangs around for one more day as a high pressure ridge remains before breaking down later this evening. While skies will remain relatively cloud free, especially across the northern counties, northerly flow will continue for most of the day and keep high temps again right near seasonal normals. The weakens overnight and moisture along the Southeastern US and the Mid-Atlantic will be allowed to make its way north. A weak shortwave moves through quickly as the ridge breaks down and will rapidly eject northeastward. As seen with previous model runs, ample moisture is in place and PWATs up to 1.5 inches which will lead to widespread rain. Instability remains relatively weak and the quick moving nature of this system will keep rainfall amounts from getting too high with amounts generally around 0.5 inch or less for the day Saturday. A low level jet moves into the area by midday with 850mb winds of 35 - 55 knots centered over the Dacks. Afternoon gusts of 15-25 knots are possible as the system passes through with some isolated higher gusts in the mountain areas. That all being said, a chance of a rumble of thunder Saturday afternoon can`t be ruled out.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Rain will become more showery in nature Saturday night as the best warm advection and overrunning lifts northeast of the area by the evening hours. Some of the area especially in northern NY may get into the warm sector while east of the Greens its less likely. While showers are still likely Saturday night there could be a period during the night without much going on before a cold front approaches the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday with an increase in precip probabilities. The NAM is still showing some CAPE to around 250 J/kg, mainly elevated, while the GFS is less. The Showalter index is near zero and Ks in the 30s, so a rumble of thunder is not out of the question, but averaging NAM/GFS keeps most of the thunder out of the forecast this point. Simulated satellite from the BTV WRF does show some embedded convective cells might be possible as well. The NAM/GFS have the cold front on our doorstep by 12z Sun through ECMWF is a bit slower. The cold front will have showers ahead and along the front but clearing behind. The front will move steadily southeast Sunday with a decreasing probability of precipitation from northwest to southeast but should clear most of our area by mid afternoon. Timing will play a role in the instability ahead of the front and indications are that some weak instability will develop south and east of BTV mainly south central VT (VSF) and points south. Again a blend of NAM/GFS keeps MUCAPE below 250 J/kg so not including thunder at this time. Looking like about a half inch of rain is expected with locally 0.75 to near an inch over the south central Greens. Clearing skies are expected Sunday afternoon with mainly clear skies Sunday night. Temperatures Saturday night will be steady or rising ranging from early evening lows the upper 40s east of the Greens to mid to upper 50s in the St. Lawrence valley rising through the 50s by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 417 AM EDT Friday...Monday is looking with a NW flow aloft and weak high pressure. Things become a bit more uncertain by Tue-Wed next week as the flow aloft backs to more westerly and we are more under the influence of the southern branch of the split confluent flow over the eastern CONUS. As a result a bit more moisture advects back into the region with perhaps a weak short wave or two embedded for another chance of showers Tuesday into Wednesday with the higher chances on Wed. It does look the like the models want to bring a more significant wave and cold front southeast from the northern branch with showers perhaps a thunderstorm Wed with clearing and drier weather by Thursday. Temperatures continuing slightly above to near average with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the 40s to around 50 each day. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Saturday...Generally VFR through the overnight hours before lowered ceilings and rain starts to move into the region. Winds will be largely orographically forced through the afternoon as channeled flow continues through both the Saint Lawrence and Champlain valleys with light and variable elsewhere. Winds become light overnight but will rapidly pick up out of the south southeast in the morning hours Saturday as mid clouds move in with a ceiling around 6000-7000 feet by 12z. Rain showers will spread from the southwest to the northeast with rain expected at SLK and RUT by 14-16z Saturday. Within any of the showers there`s potential for some MVFR visibilities. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Verasamy NEAR TERM...Deal/Verasamy SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Deal

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