Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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421 FXUS61 KBTV 230717 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 317 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate regional weather conditions through Tuesday with fair weather and a long awaited return of warmer temperatures. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Expect another beautiful day across the North Country as high pressure starts to drift east. With warm air advection pushing in due to light southerly flow, anticipate above normal temperatures this afternoon. I`ve got highs in the mid to upper 60s in the valleys with low 60s in the higher terrain. That will feel wonderful under mostly sunny skies especially given how cold it`s been over the past couple of weeks. The main forecast challenge will be how low RH`s drop. Based on yesterday`s 00z ALY sounding we mixed to 740mb! So I used local mixing height dewpoint tools to mix down dew points from about 750mb to the surface and blended those results with mos guidance. The results is minimum relative humidities in the 14-18% range this afternoon. The dry air mass will lead to somewhat large diurnal spreads as this evening the high continues to drift towards the east. The warm air advection aloft however will mean that we wont fall nearly as cold as the previous couple of nights. We should see another evening with light winds except for the southeasterly gap winds across western Rutland county. This amounts to lows in the mid to upper 30s to even low 40s in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. Tuesday warm air advection continues in earnest with clouds increasing through the afternoon as a northern stream low pressure system will begin to phase with a southern stream surface low. Anticipate any precip holding off though until late Tuesday evening. Expect highs in the upper 60s with a few spot 70`s possible. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Looks like precipitation may be a bit slower to move into the area...but it will get here nevertheless. Looks like after midnight will be the best chance for precipitation and definitely on Wednesday as shortwave trough/deeper moisture coming up from the southwest phase with upstream trough. Idea of categorical precipitation chances for Wednesday looks real good. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in the 40s and highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 259 AM EDT Monday...Phasing of the two shortwaves takes place Wednesday night and the resulting upper trough is slow to move east of the region and this does not take place until later on Thursday. As a result...can see rain continuing across the area and have likely to categorical precipitation chances holding into Thursday. Storm total precipitation amounts starting from Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday night should be in the half to three quarter inch range with some additional rainfall expected on Thursday. Higher snow levels should help with snowmelt and runoff and we should see rises on area waterways. Upper trough exits the area Thursday night and Friday is trending dry as next upstream trough does not move in until Friday night into Saturday. Warmer temperatures aloft will exist on Friday and we should see temperatures slightly above normal. But as upper trough moves in for Friday night and Saturday and then moving east on Sunday...which puts the area in north to northwest flow aloft...temperatures will generally be below normal for the back half of the extended. Best chances for precipitation will come in that Friday night through Saturday time period...with drying expected for Sunday on the backside of the upper trough. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours with mainly SKC expected outside of FEW/SCT cirrus during the day tomorrow. Calm winds overnight will trend south to southwest by 13-14z Monday morning. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Deal

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