Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KBTV 161734 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 134 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery and seasonably cold weather returns to the region today along with a few flurries and snow showers, mainly across the north. High pressure and partial sunshine make a welcome return by this weekend, though chilly weather and occasionally gusty winds will continue, especially on Saturday. Low pressure may creep close enough by the middle of next week to produce areas of light snow, but higher impacts from this system appear to remain largely south of the area at this time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 955 AM EDT Friday...No significant updates were needed this morning. Wind gusts have been a bit higher than previously anticipated, so did bump those up just a bit. Otherwise, light snow showers continue over mainly the mountains. Temperatures are on the chilly side and should get into the 20s in most locations this afternoon. The forecast has this all covered, so no other changes were needed. Prior discussion... As of 337 AM EDT Friday...A blustery 36 hour period remains in the forecast this morning as our area remains under a modestly tight pressure gradient between distant occlusion across Labrador and expansive high pressure anchored across the Upper Midwest into southwestern Ontario. The broadly cyclonic upper flow that has plagued the forecast area with overcast skies and light, accumulating snows over the past 24 hours will continue across the area today. The depth of moisture has gradually decreased since yesterday however, and as daytime insolation begins Froude numbers should climb into the 1.5 to 2 range. As a result, expect additional flurry/snow shower coverage to become largely confined to the northern high terrain where additional accumulations should be relatively minor from a dusting to 2 inches or so. As the day progresses a deepening boundary layer will tap into stronger flow aloft fostering frequent wind gusts into the 20 to 30 mph range which will put a chill in the air. Late day max temperatures to hold mainly in the 20s - perhaps a spot 30 here or there in the southern valleys. On a more positive note, as moisture continues to thin and boundary layer mixing occurs the deeper valleys should begin to see some afternoon partial sunshine which has been sorely missed for quite some time. By tonight into Saturday we continue to advertise a robust arctic shortwave trough dropping south into eastern New England and the Maritimes. This feature is quite anomalous by mid-March standards with model-progged 500 mb temperatures in the -35 to -38C range. While passing to our east its westward extension will sweep trough the region later tonight into Saturday morning setting the stage for another round of blustery and cold weather for Saturday. Accompanying the trough passage will be a slight reblossoming of snow shower activity across the area, especially across the north where minor additional accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be possible - highest in elevated terrain. Given the relatively mixed lower levels and variable cloud cover low temperatures tonight will be somewhat milder than what 925-850 thermal profiles would suggest, bottoming out in the 10 to 20 range by sunrise Saturday. Under strong cold thermal advection behind this feature, Saturday`s temperatures won`t rise too much despite deep layer drying and increasing sunshine over the course of the day - mainly upper teens to mid 20s north and in the 20s south. With blustery conditions continuing (northwest gusts 20 to 30 mph) apparent temperatures will hold in the single digits and teens so be sure and dress appropriately despite the sun. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Friday...Northwesterly flow remains over the region with well below normal temperatures and bitter cold conditions over night for mid March. Overnight lows will be in the single digits for the first time in a while with higher elevations dropping below zero degrees. Even with the weakening winds overnight, wind chills will drop into the negative teens across much of the CWA. Sunday will continue to see below normal temperatures and dry conditions much like Saturday with highs in the teens to lower 20s. Even with a decent 500mb vort max passing over NEK later in the afternoon, lack of moisture will lead to, at best, a passing snow shower for the northeast counties. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 423 AM EDT Friday...The northwest flow continues to start next week as Monday looks to be slightly warmer to Sunday, but with still well below seasonal normal temperatures. Models have back off a bit on the timing of the next potential Nor`easter with Tuesday now looking more and more dry as the low pressure system remains back across the Carolinas and VA throughout the day Tuesday before moving into the Atlantic late Tuesday night. After this point, the models bring the low up the coastline Wednesday and again bring QPF ranging from 0.10" - 0.75" across the southern and eastern VT counties, much like the previous 2 systems, depending on which solution you choose. Model run to model run still has not been the most consistent as we have see in previous systems. So for now, have continued to keep chance PoPs with an emphasis on the higher peaks across VT for Wednesday and Thursday. As with the previous systems, this one looks to be another complex system that will bear close monitoring over the next few days. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18Z Saturday...A mix of VFR/MVFR through 22Z with scattered flurries and light snow showers, mainly confined to elevated terrain. Conditions trend mainly VFR thereafter except at KSLK where occasional IFR visibilities will be possible through 21Z and MVFR ceilings may persist into the evening hours. Conditions trend VFR at all terminals after 00Z when clouds will thin out and become more scattered. Some brief MVFR conditions are possible again 08z-15z Saturday as scattered snow showers move through the region, with ceilings at KSLK AOB 3000 ft from 08z on. Winds west/northwesterly from 8 to 15 kts with gusts from 15 to 25 kts expected during the entire forecast period. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Hastings/JMG SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.