


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --203 FXUS61 KBTV 270222 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1022 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Much cooler temperatures with plenty of clouds will impact our region today, along with a few light rain showers. Any rainfall amounts will be light and generally under a tenth of an inch. An active period of weather is anticipated late Friday into Saturday with several rounds of localized heavy rainfall expected. Drier and warmer weather returns by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 1016 PM EDT Thursday...Clearing across the northern portions of the region continues with the edge of the clouds deck slowing its southward push near the Rutland/Addison County border. Areas north of the clouds will likely see good radiational cooling and have lowered overnight lows in those areas to the upper 40s in the higher terrain. Some fog development is evident on satellite along the spine of the Greens, the upper Connecticut Valley, and in portions of the Adirondacks. The fog is expected to continue to expand as the night goes on in the protected valleys of eastern Vermont and near the High Peaks Wilderness of New York. No additional changes were made in this update. Previous Discussion...Patchy fog is possible for parts of eastern Vermont in the Connecticut River Valley tonight with lower QPF for Friday afternoon. Crossover temperatures this afternoon reached the low 50s, and with the current clearing trend, cooling to that threshold tonight appears likley. Furthermore, showers this afternoon will provide more than enough moisture for fog development. Pertaining to tomorrow, 18Z CAMs and NBM runs suggest a slower system at the onset with precipitation holding off across northern New York until mid to late afternoon Friday. So did adjust precipitation chances and amounts back by a few hours. High temperatures this afternoon have only climbed into the upper 60s and low 70s, with plenty of cloud cover across the region. Some isolated to scattered shower activity will continue to linger into tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight will be fairly seasonably, with most locations dropping into the 50s. Cooler conditions will continue into tomorrow, with high temperatures once again only warming into the upper 60s and low 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...An active period of weather is still anticipated for Friday night through Saturday, with several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms possible. The environment will be quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes, with PWAT values nearing 2.0 inches and deep warm layer cloud depths. Given the favorable heavy rain set- up, isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially in locations that receive multiple rounds of rainfall. Compared to the previous forecast, the axis of the heaviest precipitation has trended further northward, keeping just the southern periphery near the international border. Despite the current trend, any upstream convection and potential MCS will likely influence the exact location of the heavier rainfall so there is still some uncertainty. The current forecast shows 1.5 to inches across the northern portions of the forecast area, with some locally higher amounts possible. Given this current trend, no Flood Watch has been issued at this time, but trends will need to be monitored with the next few rounds of model guidance as we get closer to the event. WPC continues to maintain a Slight Risk (2 of 4) in the Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Showers will begin to taper off towards Saturday evening. Temperatures during this time remain on the cooler side, with highs generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be on the milder side with cloud cover and precipitation, generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday will see things dry out as the trough moves out of the area bringing the return of warmer weather as temperatures push back into the upper 70s and low 80s. There will still be some potential concerns with runoff from higher terrain heightening the chances for some flooding in the lower valleys during the day. Ridging moves in on Monday, bringing partly cloudy skies and another push of heat ahead of a warm front. Valleys will push into the upper 80s with some spots reaching 90. While we will have mid level ridging, there is still slight chances for some isolated convection in the afternoon across the region Tuesday will be more unsettled as a cold front moves into the region. Timing still remains up in air, but there are chances for more widespread convection during the day Tuesday. The mid-week also remains unsettled as an upper low stalls to our north, bringing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR through the period, except for potential LIFR fog at MPV between 06-12Z Friday. Drier air briefly pushing southward into VT and nrn NY from srn Quebec is resulting in diminishing mid-upper level cloud cover. Skies trend FEW-SCT200-250 for most of the overnight period, especially across the northern TAF sites. This will lead to localized fog, with best chance at MPV, where 1SM BR is currently included in the TAF for the pre- dawn hours. Otherwise, will be looking at light north winds becoming light and variable overnight. For the daylight hours on Friday, winds becoming SE at 10-12kt, locally a bit higher at PBG/BTV with gusts 20-22kts expected. Will see some late afternoon showers moving in from the west, with a 10% chance of a thunderstorm late in the period at KMSS. Included just -SHRA for now, with rain commencing around 20Z at KMSS, and generally between 22-00Z elsewhere. Should remain VFR with localized MVFR toward the end of the TAF period with any locally heavy rain shower activity. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... The latest NWS forecast continues to support the idea of several rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible late Friday into Saturday. With boundary position and movement at play, the exact placement of heaviest rainfall remains somewhat uncertain, with the most recent guidance trending further north with the heaviest precipitation across southern Canada. Given near normal streamflows and 0-40cm soil moisture profiles, we do have some wiggle room/capacity to handle some of the runoff. As such, widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected at this point with the emphasis more on the flash flood threat in small streams/watersheds in steep terrain. However, a few of the smaller rivers may see sharp rises by Saturday. Our current precipitation forecast indicates 1.0 to 2.0 inches, with localized higher amounts likely across the higher terrain and northern portions of the forecast area. It needs to be stated, a significant variability in rainfall distribution often occurs during convective events, so exact precip amounts and placement are very challenging. Current 3/6 hour flash flood guidance of between 2 and 3.5 inches all appears reasonable at this time. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kremer NEAR TERM...Danzig/Kremer SHORT TERM...Kremer LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Banacos HYDROLOGY...NWS BTV