Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170544 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 144 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure and partial sunshine make a welcome return by this weekend, though chilly weather and occasionally gusty winds will continue, especially on Saturday. Scattered snow showers will be possible late tonight and Saturday morning, mainly in the northern mountains. Low pressure may creep close enough by the middle of next week to produce areas of light snow, but higher impacts from this system appear to remain largely south of the area at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1033 PM EDT Friday...Mountain snow showers have diminished late this evening setting up a variably cloudy and brisk night. NW gradient flow remains moderately strong (gusts to 25kt at BTV at 0230Z), and will keep PBL well-mixed. Looking at overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s. Some partial clearing is possible. However, a potent upper shortwave trough will dig toward the region toward daybreak and move quickly across northern New England on Saturday. This is a very cold airmass for this time of year (highs Saturday expected about 15deg below normal), and the influx of colder air will allow additional snow showers to develop Saturday morning, especially over northern areas will which lie closest to the best dynamics and best SBCAPE (>100 J/kg) as indicated by 00z NAM-12km. Model soundings suggest convective depths extending up close to 700mb with trough passage. Precipitable Water values only around 0.12-0.15" will limit widespread snow squall activity, but a quick snow shower or squall is possible during the morning hours Saturday, especially across northern VT. A strong jet will accompany the shortwave as well, and with decent mixing expect gusty winds will continue much of tonight and Saturday. Drier air works in Saturday afternoon, bringing the showers to an end and even allowing for some sunshine by late in the day. However, with gusty winds and temperatures only in the teens and 20s, it will definitely be a cold day more reminiscent of January in spite of any sunshine. Skies will clear and winds lessen overnight Saturday night as high pressure builds across the region, and this combined with nice fresh snowpack will make for a very cold night indeed. Lows drop down into the single digits areawide, with negative numbers likely in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...The weekend and the start of the work week will be relatively quiet as high pressure dominates the region. We`ll see some low level clouds mainly over the higher terrain with some breaks during both days. The main item of note will be the well below normal cold air that filters into the North Country. With 850 temps ranging from - 15C to -19C we`ll be bordering on 20 degrees colder than our normal highs for mid March with temps in the high teens to low 20s Sunday and Monday. Overnight temps will fall into the single digits as radiational cooling should be in full effect. Based on BufKit soundings I did boost the higher elevation temps during the overnight hours because the high peaks regions should be quite a bit warmer and drier above the low level subsidence inversions. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...Coming out of the weekend we`ll see marginally warmer air move into the region from the northwest as high pressure pushes to our south. Models are starting to come into more agreement regarding the potential nor`easter and it`s not looking likely for more snow across most of the North Country. The northern stream upper level trough over Ontario pushes the system south and as the surface low deepens, its over the Carolinas. Because the northern stream and southern stream troughs stay separated the coastal low gets pushed offshore by the northern stream westerly 250mb jet. The low then stretches along a deformation axis and becomes rather elongated up the east coast which keeps most of the moisture and forcing out of the forecast area. Based on latest progs I`ve still got mention of snow across the southeastern corner of Vermont. Areas around Springfield/Ascutney may see some snow but not a significant amount as of the latest guidance. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain strong and gusty through the forecast period across the Vermont stations and after sunrise the NY stations will pick back up as well. Skies will remain largely VFR on Saturday but a quick shot of snow will be observed during the late morning/early afternoon hours as a boundary pushes through the state with decent low level instability. MVFR conditions and some IFR conditions with vsby 2 miles or less could be seen at KSLK/KPBG/KMPV/KBTV as these convective snow showers push through. Conditions will quickly trend back to VFR following snow showers as drier air quickly filters in across the North Country. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Banacos/Hastings SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Clay/Verasamy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.