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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241751
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front is sagging south with light to moderate rain
showers over the region. Temperatures will drop throughout the
day, and a brief period of snow is possible as precipitation
tapers off. Only minor accumulations of snow are expected given
a period of warm temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After
one cool day on Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and
become above normal for the new work week. Another interval of
sharp drying takes place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will
return later Saturday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 127 PM EDT Wednesday...Quick update to the forecast. Cold
front has cleared the Champlain Valley and gusty north winds 20
to 30 mph have been reported along and behind the frontal
passage. Have upped the wind gust forecast slightly for this
afternoon, although it`s difficult to find guidance that is as
high as the observed winds. Have thus trended towards the NBM
90th percentile wind gusts. Wind gusts will remain in the 15 to
25 mph range for most of the afternoon. Temperatures have
sharply fallen along and behind the front, and rain showers have
changed to rain/snow mix for many areas. The ground temperatures
are warm enough to prevent any snow accumulations on hard
surfaces, so not expecting any issues with the roads. Previous
discussion follows.

The anticipated sharp cold front now resides just west of the
St. Lawrence Valley. Dry air has remained firm across Vermont,
and we`ve seen little precipitation. Some high res guidance
event indicates the potential for a broken line by morning as
the boundary shifts into Vermont and 100- 200 J/kg of CAPE
develops this afternoon. Perhaps a rumble of thunder could occur
in Rutland and Windsor County, but have made no explicit
mention. Overall, guidance is less bullish on cold air and
pulled back on snowfall, and this is reasonable considering the
warmth due to the lack of precipitation. There could still be a
dusting around 1000 ft or higher, and maybe an inch for summits.
It will still be a sharp boundary with 5 to 10 degree drops in
temperature over a 2 to 3 hour time frame with a fast switch
from southwest to northwest winds.

The air mass coming in is very dry. Once the front is south, clouds
will quickly clear out tonight. Cool northwest flow will bring
temperatures into the teens across the Adirondacks and parts of the
Northeast Kingdom, with low to mid 20s across the region. The only
area that may hold onto 30s will be near Lake Champlain. Conditions
on Thursday will be fairly cool with 40s, which is about 10 degrees
below normal for this time of the year. Fortunately, it will not be
too breezy, with mainly 10 to 15 mph northwest wind gusts. So it
won`t feel too raw. It will be very dry, though. Single digit to
lower teen dewpoints will shift into the area. So more 20 to 30
percent relative humidity values in the afternoon are on the table,
but today`s rain and lack of winds will preclude fire weather
concerns.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Dry conditions will continue into
Thursday evening as the region remains under the influence of high
pressure. Clear skies and light winds are expected, which will allow
for strong radiational cooling, making for a cold night. Overnight
low temperatures will drop into the 20s to near freezing once again.

Another sunny and dry day will round out the work week as the region
remains under high pressure. After a cold start to the day, daytime
highs will climb into the 50s and low 60s, which will feel pleasant
with the ample sunshine expected throughout the day. Winds will
remain light throughout the day, which will help limit fire weather
concerns. Another favorable raditional cooling night is expected for
much of the night, before increasing clouds begin to move in.
Overnight lows will be cold but not as cold as the night prior, with
temperatures in the mid 20s to 30s. The coldest spots will be across
the Northeast Kingdom as clear skies will continue for most of the
overnight hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation chances will increase as
we head into the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves
rotate into the region, as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and
begins to flatten out. Much of Saturday looks to remain dry, with
increasing chances of showers heading through the evening, although
guidance is still fairly spread with the exact timing of these
features and how quickly the ridge breaks down. The other thing to
consider is the amount of dry air across the region these features
will have to overcome for measurable precipitation. Given the
uncertainty at this point, continued to stick with the NBM, with
some showers expected Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will
continue to warm up through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and
low 70s by early next week. The warm temperatures and diurnal
heating will allow for some instability to develop in the afternoons
early next week, with the potential for some rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Through 18Z Thursday...A sharp cold front continues to move
through Vermont, just poised to exit to our east over the next
couple of hours. As the front moves through, expect a winds to
quickly shift out of the north, gusting to 15 to 30 mph for the
remainder of the evening. As temperatures rapidly fall along and
behind the front, rain showers are transitioning to a brief
rain/snow mix behind the front. Showers and MVFR conditions will
only continue for a few more hours before drier air moves in
and precipitation comes to an end. Expect skies across the
forecast area to be VFR by 00Z, and remain VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Duell/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Duell