Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 180852 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 452 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Light rain and snow showers will continue mainly over the mountains of northern New York and Vermont today with temperatures warming into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Low pressure will approach the North Country on Thursday with widespread light rain and mountain snow. A plowable wet snow accumulation is expected in the mountains Thursday into Friday. Highs Thursday will range from the lower to mid 30s mountains towns to lower 40s warmer valleys. A slow warming and drying trend is expected by the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 451 AM EDT Wednesday...Deep closed mid/upper level cyclonic circulation continues across the ne conus with next system located over the northern Plains. The combination of favorable 1000 to 700mb upslope flow and weak embedded 5h located over the northern Great Lakes will help to produce additional rain/snow showers today. The best forcing and moisture parameters are across the northern Dacks into the mountains of central/northern vt between 12z-16z today. Have mention cat/likely pops mountains, but with downslope flow of the dacks/green mountains have schc/chc pops across the cpv and parts of the ct river valley. QPF will be > 0.10 with snow levels increasing to above 2500 feet as boundary layer temps warm. Maybe an additional inch or so at summit level today. Otherwise...progged 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles are a degree or two warmer today, which should support mid/upper 40s cpv/ct river valley and mid 30s to lower 40s mountains. Unbelievable SLK was only 33 yesterday, thinking they should be 37 or 38 today with BTV around 48f. Tonight into Thursday...Short wave energy and associated moisture across the central Plains will quickly track east toward the Mid Atlantic/NE Conus. Initial band of 850 to 500mb moisture and associated 700 to 500mb fgen quickly overspreads our cwa btwn 09-12z Thursday...so expecting areas of light snow to develop during the early morning hours. This first round of precip will move east of cwa by 15z, with brief break before additional rain/snow develops on Thursday aftn into Friday with better upper dynamics/forcing. In addition to favorable moisture/forcing from short trof, low level cold air advection develops on northwest surface to 850mb flow, helping to regenerate areas of light rain/snow activity on Thursday. The best forcing/moisture combination will be central/southern VT zones closer to surface low pres track. Snow levels on Thursday are tricky with cooling 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles, but warming bl from mid April sun angle. Thinking best chance for accumulating wet snow will be above 2000 feet on Thursday with several inches anticipated. Thinking as 925mb temps drop btwn -2c and -4c by 00z Friday snow levels will lower to 1200 feet or so by sunset on Thursday. Have once again trended cooler than guidance for Thursday with highs near freezing mountain towns to lower 40s warmer valleys. Current snow depth atop Mt Mansfield is 90 inches, thinking by Friday we have a good chance to hit 100 inches again, which should provide excellent late season skiing and riding conditions for people like myself looking to earn their turns.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper trough will be start to pull east Thursday night and as northwest flow continues. With sufficient moisture there will still mountain upslope snow through the overnight hours Thursday. The precip will slowly come to an end Friday afternoon as the axis of the upper level trough moves through the North Country. Behind that low will be some much welcomed warmer and drier air. High pressure begins to build in and overcast skies will become more partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s and highs on Friday in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 324 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will continue to build into the North Country over the weekend as heights rises and temps slowly start to warm. Its not until Sunday that the warm air advection starts to really build in and temps warm to the upper 40s to near 50. By Monday the area should be near normal with a chance Tuesday and Wednesday to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. The combination of high pressure, light winds, and warm temps will lead to several days with low afternoon relative humidities in the 25-30% range. All in all it should be quite the welcomed sight to see skies clearing and temps finally near normal starting next week. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...TAF challenge will continue to be periods of ifr at slk today and brief windows of ifr at mss in light snow and lowering cigs. Current radar shows light snow rotating back into northern ny taf sites with slk down to 4sm. Thinking MVFR will prevail with occasional ifr with vis btwn 1-3sm at mss/slk this morning with best chance between 10-16z. Meanwhile...other taf sites will continue to experience mainly vfr cigs/vis at pbg/btv/rut with mvfr cigs at mpv. The downslope westerly flow will continue to produce mainly vfr conditions in the cpv today, with mvfr prevailing at mpv. Winds will be west/northwest, except southwest at mss at 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts to 20 knots. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber

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