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363
FXUS61 KBTV 101630
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1230 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through this afternoon
and evening. A few of these could be severe and localized flash
flooding is possible in the heaviest storms. The rain moves out
tonight and dry weather should mostly prevail through Saturday.
Shower chances increase Sunday as a weak cold front moves into the
region, but hot and humid conditions will prevail through much of
next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...Showers and storms have been moving
slowly through parts of northern and eastern Vermont this morning.
Additional showers have developed across the spine of the Greens and
parts of northern New York. Shower coverage will continue to
increase this afternoon and into the early evening before it
gradually diminishes late this evening and tonight. So far, the
heaviest showers have generally produced between 1-1.5 inches.
Thankfully, the storms have been moving just fast enough to prevent
training and the atmosphere has been drying a bit during the day,
decreasing the PWATs. The lower PWATs are helping keep rates a bit
lower than they could be, but with multiple rounds of showers
expected, the areas of concern are places that see multiple rounds
of the heaviest showers. In these areas, localized flash flooding is
possible.

The storms this afternoon also have a severe threat. Surface CAPE
has increased to around 1,000 to 1,500 J for much of the region,
with parts of the ST. Lawrence Valley seeing values close to 2,000
J. The exception is some areas east of the Greens that are in a
cooler marine modified airmass off the Atlantic, where surface CAPE
values are below 1,000 J. 0-6 KM shear has increased to between 25-
30 KTs, and it will come up a little more this afternoon. Strong
synoptic forcing will be lacking, but there will be enough of a weak
surface boundary to provide lift. This weak forcing is noticeable in
how many of the storms have developed across the terrain this
morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...Surface high pressure builds into the
region for tomorrow and Saturday, bringing mostly dry weather. It
will be accompanied by a warming trend, with temperatures rising
into the 80s and low 90s this weekend. Dew points will also
gradually increase, with values increasing into the 60s to around
70. The temperatures and dew points should be just low enough to
prevent anywhere reaching Heat Advisory criteria, but it will be hot
and humid regardless.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...A cold front attempts to make its way
through the region on Sunday into Monday but it mostly falls apart
before it can pass through. It will bring another round of showers
and storms, and some heavy rainfall will again be possible. While
ensemble guidance generally favors an overnight passage, some
members move it through in the afternoon, and an earlier passage
would lead to some thunderstorm potential. Since the front mostly
falls apart before it passes through, temperatures will continue to
be above climatological normals for much of the week and the
humidity will stay elevated. Currently, the first heat wave of the
season looks increasingly possible for Burlington, though the
magnitude of the heat will not be as strong as it was back in June.
The heat and humidity look to remain in place for the rest of the
work week before relief may arrive for the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions will largely prevail through
the daylight hours with scattered convection likely to develop
after 15Z and continue through 22-00Z but confidence of a storm
hitting a terminal is low at this time. Brief MVFR/IFR
conditions are likely within a thunderstorm. After 03-06Z, a low
level inversion looks to set up helping to develop low stratus
and fog at most TAF sites. Winds will be light SSE through the
day, then return to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Lahiff