Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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674 FXUS61 KBTV 241920 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 320 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will give way to low pressure tracking through the region from Wednesday onward into the first part of the upcoming weekend. Plenty of clouds along with a periodic threat of showers or light rain are expected during this period as temperatures trend cooler. Behind this system, confidence is increasing for a substantial warm-up by the early to middle portions of next week as high pressure returns to the northeast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM EDT Tuesday...Another outstanding day continues to unfold across the area as departing high pressure, ample sun and modest southerly return flow have boosted afternoon temperatures well into the 60s to lower 70s. Humidity levels remain on the low side, but not as extreme as we saw yesterday as southerly trajectories are transporting a slightly higher dewpoints into the forecast area on the back side of the surface high. For tonight into Wednesday we continue to watch low pressure and associated moisture lifting slowly northward from the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic states. High clouds will slowly thicken and lower over time with chances of showers increasing late across the southern and western portions of the forecast area. Low temperatures to run somewhat milder and more uniform as longwave radiative processes become minimized later tonight - mainly 40s with a few 30s in favored northern mountain hollows. Models remain consistent in showing the aforementioned moisture phasing with a digging northern stream upper trough approaching from the Great Lakes and southern Canada tomorrow, and our current idea for increasing clouds and the threat of light rainfall still looks good as we progress into the daylight hours on Wednesday. The devil lies in the more discrete details in regard to how "steady" this rainfall will eventually be through the day with most recent hi-res guidance now suggesting a more showery regime with orographic influences as the nose of a modest southeasterly 30 kt jet lifts through the region. As such, overall QPF was lowered slightly with p-type characterized as more showery than a steady all-day rainfall. PoPs will remain high however, so any outdoor recreational interests should be planned accordingly. Given the abundance of clouds and light precipitation around highs will trend cooler and range mainly through the 50s. Showers then continue on and off for Wednesday night as the parent upper trough tightens atop our area. Good PVA and moisture convergence is associated with this feature, and combined with relatively cool 700-500 mb thermal profiles high PoPs will be maintained. There could be a few wet snowflakes mixed in at the highest summit levels later at night but precipitation will be largely characterized as light rain or showers. Given a near neutral thermal advection regime in the lower levels minimum temperatures should run quite similar to tonight - mainly upper 30s to mid 40s or so.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Precipitation will continue Wednesday night, then end late in the day Thursday. Upper level low pressure system will be passing overhead Wednesday night, and upper level shortwave energy will help to enhance precip. As upper level low crosses the area, precipitation will become orographically influenced before ending late in the day Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday night will be warmer than seasonal normals due to clouds and precipitation, and for the same reason daytime maximum temperatures Thursday will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals. By the end of the day Thursday, rainfall totals will be in the three quarters of an inch to an inch range, highest totals in Northern New York. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...Precipitation will be ending Thursday night, and Friday will be a break in the action as some weak ridging builds into the area. Southwesterly flow increasing during the day Friday should aid in bumping temps up to the 60s once again. More rain showers are expected Friday night and Saturday with another Northern stream system crossing our area. Timing if tough to pin down currently, with GFS and ECMWF not in very good agreement. Sunday does look much better though with another high pressure ridge building into our area from the South. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR through 12Z Wednesday as high clouds slowly thicken and lower into the BKN/OVC 050-100 AGL range. Winds south to southwesterly and occasionally gusty from 15-20 kts through 00Z, abating to light overnight. After 12Z Wednesday periods of showers and/or light rain arrive as low pressure tracks into the region. Cigs lower to OVC low VFR or MVFR depending on terminal by 18Z, generally in the 015-040 AGL range. Winds variable from 5 to 10 kts with direction terminal dependent. Exception at KRUT where some enhanced southeasterly gap winds may gust to 20 kt. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...JMG

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