Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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639 FXUS61 KBTV 232328 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 728 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide fair conditions and seasonable temperatures tonight through Thursday night. May see an isolated shower or thunderstorm northern sections late Friday, along with warmer temperatures with valley highs in the low to mid 80s on Friday. More uncertainty arrives by the upcoming weekend as an increase in moisture and a cold front sinking southward from Canada may lead to periods of rain showers, especially Saturday and Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 719 PM EDT Wednesday...Monitoring just a couple of isold early evening showers vcnty Jay Peak/Newport tracking sewd at 25-30 mph. Anticipate gradual dissipation with onset of diurnal cooling cycle and loss of steep PBL lapse rates. Winds generally W-NW at 5-10 mph...but will become light and variable and controlled by local orographic influences by 02Z or so. May see some patchy frost in the colder spots of the nrn Adirondacks and hallows of Vermont`s Northeast Kingdom. Most locations will see somewhat crisp temperatures with pre-dawn lows in the low-mid 40s, and locally in the mid 30s far nern VT and around KSLK. High pressure remains our controlling weather feature for Thursday and Thursday night. PoPs NIL. Temps will be slightly cooler than normal in the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday as we`re still on the western edge of the departing trough, but increasing southerly flow Thursday night will keep lows mild in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Looking at very comfortable humidity on Thursday with dewpoints in the low-mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...A warm and windy day is expected Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across our Northern zones Friday afternoon and into the evening. Southerly flow will become westerly by mid day on Friday and temps will warm rapidly. The westerly warm air advection will bring 925mb temps of 18C to 21C over the region meaning low to mid 80s can be expected. Expect gusts during the morning and afternoon hours of between 25-30 mph. With the higher temps and decent mixing there`s some potential for showers to develop in the afternoon hours on Friday. Showalters turn negative across much of Northern Vermont and Northern New York during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 353 PM EDT Wednesday...Lots of uncertainty still with the weekend forecast, though the period looks active with several chances for rain showers. Models are still indicating a back door cold front dropping south across our region later in the day Saturday and bringing with it a chance for light rain showers. This front will stall out to our South Saturday night and into Sunday. There will be clouds across the region, and continued chance for light rain showers during the day Sunday. Models are leaning towards a solution where it`s wetter in Northern New York than in Vermont and this is reflected in my forecast with likely wording in NY and chance in VT. An upper level trough will swing through the region on Monday into Monday night bringing more chances for showers and possible thunder in Northern New York. Temperatures will be near normal during the weekend and heading into next week, generally low 70s for highs. Ridge of surface high pressure will build back into the region for Tue and Wed of next week. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...VFR and mostly clear conditions are expected through the period at the TAF sites. Daytime cumulus clouds will dissipate 00-02Z with FEW-sct200-250 thru the remainder of the period. Light and variable winds overnight, and generally 10kts or less for the daylight hours on Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG/Lahiff NEAR TERM...Banacos/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Banacos/Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.