Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221857 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 257 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Generally dry weather is expected during the next five to seven days, with the exception of a few mountain snow showers Friday into Saturday under variably cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain slightly below average for late March through the weekend. However, strengthening high pressure early next week will bring increased sunshine and moderating temperatures with valley highs back into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
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As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...Relatively quiet wx. We`ve been seeing a gradual dissipation of cirrus layer this afternoon as low pressure south of Nova Scotia gradually pulls away to the east. Low-level gradient flow remains from the north on the wrn periphery of this offshore, vertically stacked system. Relatively low dewpoints (20s) and PBL mixing has resulted in wind speeds 12-15kt sustained with a few gusts in excess of 20kt expected thru 22Z or so. Thereafter, stabilization will occur quickly with winds decreasing below 5kt in most areas after 03Z/Friday. Will see mostly clear conditions early, but next shortwave trough advancing sewd from the northern Great Lakes will bring an increase in clouds during the overnight period, especially after midnight. Main effect will be to mitigate radiative cooling late. The BTVWRF-4km and NAM-Nest both suggest a few flurries possible across the northern Adirondacks 09-15Z, and have included some minimal 20-40 PoPs to cover this possibility. Little or no snowfall accumulation is expected given limited moisture (PW values around 0.25"). Overnight lows should range from the low-mid 20s. However, some teens are possible in far nern VT with later arrival of clouds with next shortwave trough. Generally looking for mid-level low/500mb vort center to pass across the srn tier of NY during the afternoon hours on Friday, and then across srn New England on Friday night. This will maintain variable cloud cover with a scattered flurry possible across the Adirondacks and Green Mtns Friday into Friday night. Gradient flow will remain from the north, keeping temperatures slightly below climo mean for late March. Highs on Friday generally expected in the 35-40F range, with lows Friday night back into the low-mid 20s, except upper teens in the northern Adirondacks.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Mid/upper level trof prevails across the ne conus for this upcoming weekend. Temps will continue to be below normal thru Sunday...with another modified surge of colder air arriving late Sat into Sunday. Clouds will have an impact on temps, for both daytime highs and overnight recent trend of large diurnal swings will be limited this weekend. In addition...potent s/w energy dropping south will increase with some increasing mid level moisture and low level upslope flow to produce terrain driven snow showers. The best combination of moisture and forcing occurs between 06z-15z have mentioned high chc pops in the mountains. Any accumulation will be light maybe an inch or so, northern VT mountains and parts of the NEK. Tricky temp forecast with northerly winds both Sat/Sun and some modest low level cold air advection with clouds. Progged 925mb temps between -6c and -8c with coldest values in the cpv/slv maybe keep highs only in the 30s with 20s mountains Saturday and again on Sunday...which is now 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect lows in the mid teens to mid 20s...but if more clearing develops than anticipated these values will be 5 to 10 degrees colder. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Large scale pattern change develops by early next downstream flow over the western Atlantic becomes strongly blocked. Large scale models continue to show a high over low pattern developing downstream...which places our cwa in favorable sweet spot of building high pres both aloft and at the surface. This pattern will result in modifying temps by early next week...with mainly dry conditions expected thru Tuesday. Given the deep layer from large scale subsidence...anticipating large swings in daily temps again for Sunday Night thru Tuesday...with a trend toward above normal values. Progged 850mb temps btwn -2c and -4c Monday...should support highs mid 30s to mid 40s. 925mb and 850mb temps rise above 0c on Tuesday with values btwn 2 and 5c...supporting mid 40s to l/m 50s. Based on plenty of sunshine and thermal profiles have gone 3 to 5 degrees above superblend. Potential issues could be limited mixing (shallow low level inversion) with ridge axis directly overhead and remaining snow pack. Otherwise...large scale blocking pattern slowly breaks down midweek with a chance for mainly rain showers Weds before cooler air arrives Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...TAFs will remain predominantly VFR throughout the TAF period. Mainly cirrus thru 00Z Friday. Thereafter, a mid-level trough approaching from the northern Great Lakes region will bring an increase in cloud cover BKN-OVC mainly 4-6kft during the overnight hours and into Friday morning. It appears that localized MVFR conditions will develop at KSLK during the overnight hrs, with HIR TRRN OBSCD across the nrn Adirondacks into the northern Greens during portions of Friday morning. Any precipitation will be light, with just a chance of snow showers mainly across the nrn Adirondacks. Carried VCSH at KSLK between 09-16Z Friday. Winds will continue moderate from the N-NW 12-16kt through 00Z, lowering to 4-8kts overnight, and increasing back to 5-10kts by late morning on Friday. Outlook... Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Banacos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.