Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211719 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 119 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves into the region today with clear skies with high temperatures this afternoon in the 70s. Showers chances will return on Tuesday as a weak low pressure system moves through the area followed by a cold front Wednesday. Thereafter, high pressure will bring seasonably mild and dry weather on Thursday then warmer on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 108 PM EDT Monday...No changes were needed with this update. Sunshine continues to prevail across the North Country, with just a few wispy cirrus clouds moving into northern NY. Still anticipating highs in the lower to mid 70s areawide. Have made some minor tweaks to sky cover and winds to match the latest trends, but overall the forecast is in good shape and no significant changes were needed. Previous discussion....An upper level short wave ridge moves across the region today as high pressure builds in the surface. Some early morning patchy fog will burn off early then plenty o sunshine is expected. Westerly winds are expected with some gusts near 20 kts, especially across the NEK. 925 mb temps up to about 15C should give the valleys high temps in the mid 70s with lower 70s in the higher terrain. Clouds will increase from west to east Monday night ahead of low pressure sliding across the Great Lakes. Overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s are expected. Low to mid-level warm advection ahead of a weak surface low tracking from near BUF toward New England will bring rain showers spreading into our western areas toward daybreak Tuesday then overspreading the rest of the region during the morning. Temperatures a bit tricky as readings will be warmest before the rain begins, but it looks early like it may skirt south of the international border, so it could be a bit warmer there in the upper 60s while most of the rest of the region will be in the lower to mid 60s before cooling to 55 to 60 in rain showers.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 324 AM EDT Monday...Deeper moisture and shower threat then sink south and away from the region Tuesday night as mid to upper level flow trends northwesterly with the approach of a longwave trough from northeastern Canada. The idea of highest pops across central and southern counties early in the evening still look good at this point as skies become partly cloudy later at night. Low temperatures generally in the 45 to 55 range. On Wednesday the tail end of the longwave trough pushes into the area with a weak attendant cold front sinking into the area by afternoon. Best forcing and moisture pooling along the boundary appear to set up mainly northeast of our area, though enough uncertainty remains to include 20-30 pops across mainly northern counties during the afternoon/early evening accordingly. Within this activity an isolated rumble of thunder will also be possible owing to marginally steep lapse rates in the lower to mid levels. Thunder threat will be governed by a mid-level warm nose above 750 mb, the extent of which may or may not act as an inhibiting cap on weak to modest vertical motions. All and all quite a nice day outside the few showers as high temperatures top out at seasonably mild levels in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 324 AM EDT Monday...Nice late spring weather then continues for the Thursday/Friday time frame as surface high pressure builds into the region with fair weather expected. Thursday will be the cooler of the two days with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s under light northwesterly flow. Then considerably warmer temperatures arrive on Friday as the high slides east and flow backs to west-southwesterly, ushering in a continental airmass of Upper Midwest origin. For now have offered highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s but this could be conservative looking at the deterministic models` 925-850 mb thermal profiles. Time will tell. Uncertainty then creeps back into the forecast by next weekend as southwesterly flow deepens, allowing a high moisture content airmass to advect into the region. PWATS climb to well in excess of 1 inch, though forcing initially looks rather amorphous on Saturday so shower coverage will be less organized. With the approach of an upper shortwave trough on Sunday coverage should be more widespread with a low-end threat of a few embedded storms. Temperatures remain mild in the 70s for both days as clouds become more the rule than sunshine. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z TUESDAY...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Clear skies will dominate this afternoon, then high clouds will increase ahead of a weak low pressure system moving in from the west. Ceilings will lower to 5-10 kft after 12z Tuesday, with showers moving into KMSS, KSLK, KRUT, and KMPV around 15z Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Hastings/Sisson SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Hastings/Sisson

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