Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 170008 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 808 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift northeastward across the North Country this evening with periods of light to moderate rainfall. Gusty southeast winds late this afternoon will generally decrease through this evening. A west to northwest flow will be in place as the low departs to the north and east over the next couple of days. We`ll continue to see mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions, with scattered rain and snow showers for Tuesday and Wednesday, especially in higher elevation areas. Another low pressure system moving across New York and New England on Thursday will bring additional chances for rain and higher elevation snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 808 PM EDT Monday...Cancelled Wind Advisory with this package update as winds have steadily abated across the area early this evening and 925-850 mb southeaterly jet core continues to depart northeast. GOES-16 water vapor shows a pronounced dry slot pivoting north and east into the region with occluded boundary following in tow across the SLV south into central/eastern NY state. Have massaged pops higher in the near term (next 3-6 hours) to account for departing pre-frontal rain band across far northeastern VT and showers with approaching occlusion across our western counties while lowering values in the dry slot across far eastern NY into western/southern VT. Rest of forecast remains on track with no additional changes needed at this point. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Will see periods of rainfall through this evening as occulded front and strong QG forcing advances newd into the North Country. Appears PW values briefly reach 1.0-1.1" late this afternoon/early this evening. In the prevailing deep layer sely flow, will see an orographic character to expected precipitation this evening, with max rainfall expected in the srn Greens ewd across Windsor county, and across Essex County NY (0.6-0.7"). May see a few embedded convective elements, with rainfall of moderate intensity for 1-3hrs. Elsewhere, will generally see 0.25-0.5" rainfall, though shadowing effects in the Champlain Valley may result in even lower rainfall amts locally. Once occlusion passes between 03-06Z will see continued low overcast, but generally just isold rain and mtn snow showers. Overnight lows generally in the mid 30s, except lower 30s across the nrn Adirondacks. Tuesday and Tuesday night, the North Country will be in a prevailing west to WSW flow with quasi-stationary closed low positioned across srn Quebec. Will see continuation of mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions in moist cyclonic flow, with scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers, and scattered snow showers for Tuesday night. Snow levels 1000-1500` on Tuesday will generally fall to the valley floors Tuesday night, though the majority of the frequent snow shower activity will be in the orographically favored nrn Adirondacks and central/nrn Green Mtns. High temperatures on Tuesday generally in the low-mid 40s, except mid-upr 30s in the 1-2kft elevational band. Lows Tuesday night will generally fall back to the upr 20s to lower 30s areawide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Upper trough over the northeast will continue to drive the North Country`s weather on Wednesday. Positioning of the 850-700mb low to our northeast will be prime for upslope precipitation to develop across the higher terrain with ample low level wrap-around moisture and deep west- northwest flow. Boundary layer temps will support mainly rain below 2500 feet where chances for precipitation is less, but across the highest peaks temperatures will support snow as the predominant ptype with accumulations of 2-3" possible. Flow is marginally unblocked so the majority of what does fall will be on the lee side of the mountain crests. By Wednesday night a brief ridge of high pressure building into the region will bring an end to any lingering precipitation after sunset, with lows ranging through the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Looking at a wet and raw end to the work week as low pressure pulling east out of the Ohio Valley tracks across southern New England and intensifies as it tracks over the coast waters. Aloft the upper trough becomes re- established again over the Great Lakes and Northeast providing support for widespread valley rain and mountain snow showers Thursday through Friday. Additional snow accumulations of several inches across the high peaks is possible. Isolated showers will be around for the first half of the weekend as the upper trough begins to pull east of the region and high pressure builds southeastward from southern Canada. Finally we`ll see a dry day across the forecast area Sunday as the high settles overhead, and sunny/dry conditions follow into Monday as an upper level ridge follows. Temps through the period look to gradually warm from the low/mid 40s on Thursday/Friday/Saturday to upper 40s and mid 50s for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will prevail through 04Z when all sites are expected to drop to MVFR cigs between 1500 ft and 2500 ft. KMSS will likely be IFR through 04Z onwards through at least 12Z with cigs in the 600 to 800 ft range. KSLK may dip down briefly to IFR with frontal occlusion after 06Z. Sites will remain MVFR through the day on Tuesday behind the warm occlusion and relatively light winds from the SE will switch to the SW in the 5 to 12 kt range throughout the day. Scattered rain showers, mixing with snow at KSLK, will be seen throughout the day with localized reduced vsby within the showers. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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VT...None. NY...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Clay

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