Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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374 FXUS61 KBTV 061817 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 217 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon into tomorrow with heat indices into the mid-90s. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong or severe, are expected Monday and Tuesday with gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall possible. The weather turns quieter mid to late this week with seasonal temperatures and occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...Hot and humid conditions will continue today with scattered showers and potentially some embedded rumbles of thunder. Ridging over New England has led temperatures to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s by later this afternoon. Additionally, dewpoints have surged to near or at 70 making it feel muggy out. As a result of the heat and humidity, diurnally driven instability has formed a few showers across the Champlain Valley, though no severe storms are expected. While observations have not seen lightning in these cells yet, instability is high enough to warrant some potential rumbles. These cells are also high based meaning some gusty winds up to 20 mph could be associated with them. Some brief periods of heavy rain cannot be ruled out with Pwats around 1.5." In regards to the heat risk, these showers have brought up dewpoints, but consequently lowered temperatures under rain cooled air. Heat indices around the area are hovering around 90F but are still forecasted to reach into the mid 90s by mid afternoon. Behind these showers, satellite shows subsidence and some more stable air across the St. Lawrence Valley which should help mix out the higher dewpoints and briefly increase temperatures in addition to leading to more sunny conditions. It may be difficult to reach heat indices near 100 this afternoon with the showers and clouds cover around, but indices in the low to mid 90s appear more realistic. Tonight, while diurnally-driven showers will dissipate, the main area of showers, which is riding along the ridge just north of the International Border, will sag south into northern Vermont, primarily in the Northeast Kingdom. A few strong storms are possible but should lift north by sunrise. Lows tonight will offer little relief from the heat today with values in the upper 60s to low 70s. By Monday, the heat and humidity will continue with highs in the mid 80s to near 90 and heat indices in the low 90s. A slow moving cold front will begin to push moisture and shower chances into the region by Monday morning. These showers and embedded thunderstorms may be strong to severe with heavy rain and gusty winds. The latest high-res guidance continues to show that convection on Monday will largely be in the general vicinity of a frontal boundary that will ever so slightly sink south throughout the day. Moisture will build ahead of the front which should allow for CAPE values in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg to develop with shear values around 30 kts. Additionally, very high Pwats, likely around 2 inches, should allow for torrential downpours should any thunderstorms develop. Given the axis of the front, and its slowness, training showers could lead to localized flooding. The greatest threat area will be right along the international border through Monday night. Showers chances begin to wain Monday night across northern New York and northern Vermont with lingering showers in southern Vermont. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will still be over portions of Vermont as it stalls due to the presence of the remnants of Tropical Depression Chantal. While the effects of Chantal will not be felt in our region, it will help briefly stall the boundary leading to additional shower and thunderstorm chances across southern Vermont. The main axis for showers on Tuesday will not be in the same location as Monday which should help mitigate any flood potential, however, heavy rain in southern Vermont still seems probable. The boundary will finally move out by Tuesday night as a shortwave will help amplify the upper-level trough across the Great Lakes responsible for the surface front thereby ending the rainfall chances across the North Country heading into the middle of the week. Temperatures will also see a relief from the heat with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and dewpoints near 60.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...During the long term our cwa remains btwn mid/upper lvl ridge off the se conus coast and general troughiness near Hudson Bay. This large scale pattern indicates westerly flow aloft wl prevail with several embedded s/w`s and associated boundaries impacting our cwa every 18 to 30 hours. Timing of these features wl become increasingly more difficult later in the extended fcst, but confidence remains high for a period of unsettled/active weather on Thurs. Latest guidance continues to support arrival of dampening mid/upper lvl trof and associated s/w energy, and sfc boundary to support high chc/low likely pops for Thurs. Still some spread on timing which wl play an important role in amount of instability, but shear wl be present given moderately strong mid/upper lvl flow. Weak ridge builds for Friday into Sat, but additional energy is progged to arrive late Sat into Sunday with more chances for precip. No days look to be a complete rain out in the long term, but several windows of unsettled wx is likely during the time frame. No significant or hazardous heat is anticipated, as westerly flow aloft should prevent thermo ridge from building into the ne conus thru next weekend. However, temps wl be at or slightly above normal with highs upper 70s to mid 80s and lows upper 50s to mid 60s. A few muggier nights are possible at times in the long term.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Radar showing a few light rain showers across our region this aftn with VFR conditions prevailing, even under these brief showers, which just went over BTV. Have utilized PROB30 group at MPV to cover this potential for the next couple of hours, otherwise drier air aloft should result in clearing skies for the rest of our taf sites. Additional showers/storms may impact EFK toward 21z with brief MVFR conditions. South/southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts up to 20 to 25 knots possible thru 22z, before decreasing. Outflow from thunderstorms over southern Canada will switch the winds to a northeast direction at MSS with low level wind shear increasing by 00z. Did note some guidance hinting at lower clouds with possible MVFR/IFR cigs at MSS, but feel probability and confidence is too low attm to mention, but will pass along to evening aviation meteorologist. Fog potential is low tonight, given winds in the boundary layer and mixing. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Forecast high temperatures for Sunday will bring us within a few degrees of record temps for a few sites. Here are the record high temperatures for Sunday: Max Temp Records Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 07-06 95|2010 91|2010 95|1993 93|2010 91|1933 Here are the record high minimum temperatures for Sunday: High Min Temp Records DateKBTV KPBG KSLK 07-06 74|1897 74|2010 65|1931 && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005- 009-011-021. NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Danzig NEAR TERM...Danzig SHORT TERM...Danzig LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Taber CLIMATE...NWS BTV