-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 170008
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
808 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift northeastward across the North Country this
evening with periods of light to moderate rainfall. Gusty southeast
winds late this afternoon will generally decrease through this
evening. A west to northwest flow will be in place as the low
departs to the north and east over the next couple of days.
We`ll continue to see mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions, with
scattered rain and snow showers for Tuesday and Wednesday,
especially in higher elevation areas. Another low pressure
system moving across New York and New England on Thursday will
bring additional chances for rain and higher elevation snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 808 PM EDT Monday...Cancelled Wind Advisory with this
package update as winds have steadily abated across the area
early this evening and 925-850 mb southeaterly jet core
continues to depart northeast. GOES-16 water vapor shows a
pronounced dry slot pivoting north and east into the region with
occluded boundary following in tow across the SLV south into
central/eastern NY state. Have massaged pops higher in the near
term (next 3-6 hours) to account for departing pre-frontal rain
band across far northeastern VT and showers with approaching
occlusion across our western counties while lowering values in
the dry slot across far eastern NY into western/southern VT.
Rest of forecast remains on track with no additional changes
needed at this point. Have a great evening.

Prior discussion...
Will see periods of rainfall through this evening as occulded front
and strong QG forcing advances newd into the North Country. Appears
PW values briefly reach 1.0-1.1" late this afternoon/early this
evening. In the prevailing deep layer sely flow, will see an
orographic character to expected precipitation this evening, with
max rainfall expected in the srn Greens ewd across Windsor county,
and across Essex County NY (0.6-0.7"). May see a few embedded
convective elements, with rainfall of moderate intensity for 1-3hrs.
Elsewhere, will generally see 0.25-0.5" rainfall, though
shadowing effects in the Champlain Valley may result in even
lower rainfall amts locally. Once occlusion passes between
03-06Z will see continued low overcast, but generally just isold
rain and mtn snow showers. Overnight lows generally in the mid
30s, except lower 30s across the nrn Adirondacks.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the North Country will be in a prevailing
west to WSW flow with quasi-stationary closed low positioned across
srn Quebec. Will see continuation of mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions in moist cyclonic flow, with scattered rain and higher
elevation snow showers, and scattered snow showers for Tuesday
night. Snow levels 1000-1500` on Tuesday will generally fall to the
valley floors Tuesday night, though the majority of the frequent
snow shower activity will be in the orographically favored nrn
Adirondacks and central/nrn Green Mtns. High temperatures on Tuesday
generally in the low-mid 40s, except mid-upr 30s in the 1-2kft
elevational band. Lows Tuesday night will generally fall back to the
upr 20s to lower 30s areawide.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Upper trough over the northeast will
continue to drive the North Country`s weather on Wednesday.
Positioning of the 850-700mb low to our northeast will be prime
for upslope precipitation to develop across the higher terrain
with ample low level wrap-around moisture and deep west-
northwest flow. Boundary layer temps will support mainly rain
below 2500 feet where chances for precipitation is less, but
across the highest peaks temperatures will support snow as the
predominant ptype with accumulations of 2-3" possible. Flow is
marginally unblocked so the majority of what does fall will be
on the lee side of the mountain crests. By Wednesday night a
brief ridge of high pressure building into the region will bring
an end to any lingering precipitation after sunset, with lows
ranging through the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Monday...Looking at a wet and raw end to the
work week as low pressure pulling east out of the Ohio Valley
tracks across southern New England and intensifies as it tracks
over the coast waters. Aloft the upper trough becomes re-
established again over the Great Lakes and Northeast providing
support for widespread valley rain and mountain snow showers
Thursday through Friday. Additional snow accumulations of
several inches across the high peaks is possible. Isolated
showers will be around for the first half of the weekend as the
upper trough begins to pull east of the region and high pressure
builds southeastward from southern Canada. Finally we`ll see a
dry day across the forecast area Sunday as the high settles
overhead, and sunny/dry conditions follow into Monday as an
upper level ridge follows. Temps through the period look to
gradually warm from the low/mid 40s on Thursday/Friday/Saturday
to upper 40s and mid 50s for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...Mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will
prevail through 04Z when all sites are expected to drop to MVFR
cigs between 1500 ft and 2500 ft. KMSS will likely be IFR
through 04Z onwards through at least 12Z with cigs in the 600 to
800 ft range. KSLK may dip down briefly to IFR with frontal
occlusion after 06Z. Sites will remain MVFR through the day on
Tuesday behind the warm occlusion and relatively light winds
from the SE will switch to the SW in the 5 to 12 kt range
throughout the day. Scattered rain showers, mixing with snow at
KSLK, will be seen throughout the day with localized reduced
vsby within the showers.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Definite SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Likely SHSN.
Friday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
VT...None.
NY...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...JMG/Banacos
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay