Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 131121 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 721 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread light to moderate snowfall is expected across the North Country today through Wednesday night as strong low pressure passes east off the New England coast today, and an upper trough swings in over the Northeast states mid-week. Snow showers continue across the higher terrain Thursday into Friday before high pressure brings an end to precipitation area-wide on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 719 AM EDT Tuesday...No big changes to the forecast that we`ve been highlighting for several days now with a prolonged light snowfall expected through much of the work week. Early morning satellite and surface analysis shows deepening low pressure just south of the benchmark tracking northeast. Models have been locked into the storm track for days now, especially the GFS which continues to be the favored model here at BTV as the majority of the more hi-res guidance continue to be overdone in regards to QPF for the upcoming 24-48 hour period. Main highlights for today through tomorrow will be steady snowfall continuing to develop from south to north this morning, and then persisting through the remainder of the period as coastal low pressure tracks northeast to Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning and then curls northwest into New Brunswick by the days end. While snow totals over the 36 hour period will be in the 8-12" range, accumulations every 6 hours are only expected to be about 1-3" with the overall impacts minimal as surface temperatures will be near freezing supporting snow ratios around 12-14:1. Furthermore, current road temperatures across VT are generally 30-32F and are forecast to be at or above freezing during the day and just below freezing at night. With that in mind, travel impacts are expected to be low with mainly wet primary roads during the day and only light accumulations during the night hours. Big winners will be the higher elevations above 2000 feet where temperatures will remain in the 20s offering higher snow ratios of 17-20:1 with storm totals by the end of the day on Wednesday likely in the 15-20" range.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...Widespread coverage of accumulating light snows/snow showers continue in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame as deep occlusion slowly fills across the Canadian Maritimes. Best accumulation rates should occur during the overnight hours when loss of insolation and cooler near-surface temperatures will be in play. Greater coverage will also favor the northern mountains where modestly deep moisture and northwesterly flow will aid in orographic enhancement. Coverage should begin to wane over time across the southern valleys during this period due to offsetting downslope effects. Plenty of clouds will remain in place with lows Wednesday night ranging through the 20s and corresponding highs on Thursday in the 30s. It will also trend modestly gusty as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat on the west/southwestern side of the slowly weakening storm. Gusts into the 15 to 25 mph look plausible at this point, putting an extra chill in the air. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 AM EDT Tuesday...Decent coverage of snow showers/light snows across the north then slowly wane Thursday night and especially by Friday as occlusion and parent upper low pull further northeast and away from the area. Gusty flow continues with a modified polar front sweeping through the region and ushering in an unseasonably chilly airmass for the late week time frame. Did opt to go about 5 degrees below GFS MOS guidance for highs on Friday, keeping values mainly in the 20s in closer agreement to this morning`s ECWMF MOS guidance. Quiet weather then returns by Friday night and onward into Sunday and Monday of next week as modified polar high pressure settles across southern Quebec/Ontario and into northern New England. Skies should trend partly cloudy during this period as winds trend light over time. Decent radiational cooling effects should occur during overnight periods with lows in the teens to around 20, though could plausibly be lower into the single digits in favored colder northern mountain hollows. Time will tell. Corresponding highs through this period should top out on the seasonably cool side from the upper 20s to mid 30s in general, though again could be a tad cooler than my current forecast for Monday of next week if model blended 925 mb temperature profiles pan out to fruition. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 12Z Wednesday...Still waiting for lower vsby in light snow to get to all terminals, but should be very soon with MVFR/IFR ceilings and IFR vsby persisting through the next 24 hours. Could see a brief improvement to MVFR vsby at KMSS and KPBG for short periods this morning, but the predominant vsby will likely remain IFR. Winds will mainly be 6-12kts through the period with northeasterlies persisting at KMSS and KSLK, while elsewhere winds will be more northerly. Outlook... Wednesday: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN. Wednesday Night: MVFR and IFR. Definite SN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN, Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.