Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 240758 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 358 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure aloft will prevail across the North Country this weekend with below normal temperatures and a few scattered snow shower expected. Given the lack of moisture any snowfall will be light and under an inch. Temperatures will be mainly in the 30s today, but warm into the 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday with increasing amounts of sunshine. Our next weather maker impacts our region with rain showers Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 342 AM EDT Saturday...Water vapor shows mid/upper level trof across the ne conus with our next short wave energy several hundred miles north of the international border. Based on water vapor presentation, this system has very limited moisture, but strong dynamics. The core of the coldest 850mb to 500mb temps will pass to our west overnight...while northerly winds prevail from the sfc thru 850mb. GFS/ECMWF and NAM 850mb to 500mb rh progs continue to show deeper moisture advecting from ne to sw across our cwa btwn 03z-09z tonight...which combined with energy aloft will produce some very light snow showers. Once again pws are <0.25" so any qpf/snowfall will be light and generally under 1.0" The best combination of lift/moisture will be northern Dacks/northern Greens, including the NEK, where I will mention high chc pops overnight. Temps will continue to be challenging, especially with periods of clouds and general low level cold air advection today into tonight. Progged 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles fall 1 to 3 degrees today under northerly flow...with values btwn -8c and -15c by 18z. Expecting steady or slowly falling temps today with mid 30s valleys with maybe a few readings near 40f lower CT River Valley and upper teens summits. Lows tonight will be highly driven by the areal coverage of clouds...which should thin aft 09z, especially slv/western dacks. I have lows from 10f to l/m 20s cpv/lower ct river valley. If more clearing develops, these values will be way too warm, especially with continued snow pack and low level thermal profiles. Sunday...will feature increasing amounts of sunshine with brisk north winds. Progged 850mb temps hover around -10c, with good mixing support upper teens summits to mid/upper 30s warmest valleys. Building ridge aloft and associated subsidence will help in development of mostly sunny skies, except central/eastern vt where some mid level moisture/clouds will linger. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Friday...Building high pressure will lead to a pleasant day on Sunday and to start the workweek. We`ll see partly cloudy to clear skies Sunday afternoon with calming winds overnight. That will lead to temps likely crashing much lower than blended guidance. MOS on the order of 5 degrees colder than deterministic guidance and so I`ve tried to show with excellent radiational cooling that temps will likely be much colder Sunday night. I wouldn`t be surprised if SLK and parts of the Northeast Kingdom are in the single digits below zero either Sunday night or Monday night as the high crests over the North Country. Each day should be quiet with no precip expected with light and variable winds each day. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Friday...A synoptic blocking pattern remains over the area until the mid week keeping high pressure over the North Country. This will result in warming temperatures with variable cloud cover and cool to cold nights. The dry airmass will support large diurnal swings with upper 40s to 50s during day with overnight lows in the low 20s. By midweek the block breaks down and we see a cold front drag through the North Country. Models are having trouble with any sort of consensus with what the system/wave looks like at that point so the idea of chance rain/snow still is the way I feel comfortable handling the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday. Heading into Friday we`ll see a more active pattern as system from the south will be lifting north and bringing another slug of precip but at the moment there`s quite the spread in timing so we`ll have to continue to watch for development and consensus. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites through today...before some lowering cigs and mvfr potentially develops at slk/mpv aft 00z Sunday. Expect mid level clouds this morning will slowly dissipate, before additional mid level moisture and energy rotates back into our taf sites this aftn. A few scattered snow showers are possible mainly over the mountain taf sites overnight...with limited vis restrictions. North winds 5 to 10 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots possible today. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Taber is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.