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292
FXUS61 KBTV 131909
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
309 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Summer heat and humidity is fueling showers and thunderstorms as
a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Stronger
thunderstorms through this evening will likely lead to a few
instances of flash flooding and damaging winds in northern New
York, while heavy rainfall will be possible with all
thunderstorms through tomorrow. While dry weather returns for
Tuesday, heat will build midweek, peaking Wednesday, before
another Thursday with thunderstorm chances leads to a quieter
and less hot period to close out the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 309 PM EDT Sunday...Busy convective weather, with both
severe and flash flooding concerns, through this evening, while
the threat of heavy rainfall lessens a bit overnight into
tomorrow in our region. Robust moisture and heat are present
this afternoon along with a subtle upper level shortwave
kicking northeastward ahead of a cold front. The axis of
greatest instability, featuring around 2500 J/kg mixed layer
CAPE, has been over the St. Lawrence Valley where widespread
thunderstorm activity developed by 2 PM. Meanwhile the axis of
maximum precipitable water is offset just to the west at over
2", near and just ahead of another quasi-linear area of
convection in southern Ontario heading towards northern New
York. The expectation is for rounds of thunderstorms to slowly
move towards the east through this evening, with eastward
progress driven by outflow as the mean 850- 300 millibar flow
remains largely parallel to the front/running, from southwest to
northeast.

The strongest convection capable of damaging winds should
remain mainly within the corridor where a Storm Prediction
Center slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms
exists, over much of northern New York and extreme northwestern
Vermont. With limited deep layer shear peaking near 25-30 knots,
storm organization will be limited, which suggests mainly
isolated/lower coverage of damaging wind to localized wet
microbursts and perhaps small bow echoes. That being said, with
widespread coverage of thunderstorms, the potential for some
impacts through tonight is high; stay weather aware.

As we move into tonight, ongoing convection will weaken a bit
with considerable decrease in instability as it moves through
Vermont during the late evening hours. That being said, with
such a juicy environment featuring soundings of tall, skinny
CAPE with elevated convection, threat of localized heavy
rainfall in any showers will remain. The cold front will still
lag behind, such that after sunrise there will be some good
heating and reinvigoration of instability across Vermont. HREF
mean SBCAPE values by 2 PM increase into the 1250-1750 J/kg
range, supporting additional heavy thunderstorms with a low risk
of severe winds; focus of stronger convection and higher
instability will be displaced south of our region. As winds turn
more westerly through the day, some modest air mass change will
occur leading to less hot conditions. In western areas that have
more time to advect in drier air, temperatures will be a bit
warmer with lower humidity. For now, we have no mention of fog
for tomorrow night, but may need to add in future forecasts as
large scale pattern with abundant rain and limited drying, light
winds and clearing skies will support this potential for quite
a bit of dense fog.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 203 PM EDT Sunday...No impactful weather is expected on
Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure moves overhead and
precipitation chances are very low. Seasonably hot conditions
will lead to typically high wet bulb globe temperatures,
indicative of plenty of sunshine, moderate humidity, and light
winds, as temperatures warm into the mid 80s to low 90s with
similar heat index values. WPC Heat Risk values will be largely
in the moderate range as well given mid- summer conditions. The
air mass aloft will become a bit warmer overnight, but with
light winds most areas outside of the wide valleys should manage
to cool off well with a nocturnal inversion developing, leading
to lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s in most locations.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 203 PM EDT Sunday...Heat and humidity will continue mid to late
week with a ridge cresting over the easter CONUS. Heat will peak on
Wednesday with 925mb temperatures trending higher towards 25-27C.
Dewpoints will reach into the mid to upper 60s which will drive heat
index values into heat advisory criteria. The ridge looks to weaken
as a shortwave will draw some troughing across the area Wednesday
night into Thursday. Timing and amplification of this initial
shortwave remains in question, however, it should lead to more
parallel flow across northern New York behind it which will help
slow an associated frontal system. This set up looks similar to
today and the event last Thursday where a slow moving frontal system
pools moisture leading to heavy rain. Current Pwat forecasts show
values near 1.5-2," which will need further monitoring given recent
heavy rain events.

Ensembles indicate the front should finally clear out by Friday
evening though the air mass behind it, while offering some relief,
will still feature at or above seasonable temperatures. Dewpoints
look to fall into the lower 60s for the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 18Z Monday...Currently all terminals outside of EFK are VFR,
with EFK expected to return to VFR within the hour. A slow moving
cold front is beginning to move into northern New York and
eventually Vermont later this evening into the overnight.
Thunderstorms have already developed in the St. Lawrence Valley
which should impact MSS within the hour, and SLK within 2-3 hours by
20Z. As the front moves east, it will impact the remainder of the
TAF sites between 00-06Z, with some lingering showers trailing.
Shower activity will wane beyond 09Z.

Southerly winds are generally gusty up to 25 kts with prevailing
winds near 10 kts. Winds will continue to be gusty ahead of the
front, but should weaken after the frontal passage. Once the front
passes a terminal, outside of MSS which should hold on to clearer
skies, ceilings are expected to fall to at least MVFR 1200-2000 ft
agl. Some model guidance suggests that SLK/MPV/EFK could see IFR
ceilings 500-1000 ft agl, but confidence is low given modest surface
flow. These lower ceilings look to persist into tomorrow, slowly
clearing from west to east by the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
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&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig