Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 081503 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1003 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal system crosses Northern New York and Vermont tonight into Tuesday bringing just a chance for some light precipitation. Warming trend commences on Wednesday on strong southerly flow, temperatures will be well above seasonal normals from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front crosses the region on Friday bringing additional light precipitation, and dropping temperatures back to near seasonal normals on Saturday, and below normal on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 958 AM EST Monday...Temperatures quickly rebounding from our cold night as a result of our March Sun and calm winds across the forecast area. A warm front is now shifting into western New York towards Buffalo. This front will work its way towards the North Country later tonight. Since precipitation is reaching the ground there, decided to slightly bump up PoPs this evening. Otherwise, the forecast is in great shape with just some minor tweaks to hourly trends. Previous discussion below. The first half of today will feature sunny skies and light winds as high pressure crests over our area this afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds will pick up out of the south southwest during the afternoon as clouds also move into the the area from the west. This will be in advance of a warm front approaching from the Great Lakes area associated with a weak low pressure system which will track north of our forecast area overnight. As the low tracks north of our area, associated warm and cold fronts are dragged across our forecast area. Not a lot of moisture associated with this system, and will initially have a dry air mass in place. Best forcing will also remain north of our region, closer to parent low. Therefore have kept probability of precipitation to just a chance and mainly in the higher elevations. We dry aloft while moisture lingers at low- levels as the night progresses, so any snow showers could transition to more of a freezing drizzle, especially after midnight. Any snow accumulation would be less than an inch and limited to higher terrain, while little to no ice accretion is expected. Temperatures will likely fall early, then rise or hold steady overnight, especially from the Green Mountains westward, as a west-southwest jet proceeds the upper trough`s arrival. Lows will be coldest in the Northeast Kingdom, where it will drop into the mid teens, while areas west of the Green Mountains will remain in the mid and upper 20s. Light mountain snow showers or freezing drizzle will linger into the morning hours on Tuesday. But it will be short lived as another ridge of surface high pressure will edge into our area by Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will begin our warming trend and temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will top out in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 329 AM EST Monday...Upper ridge builds into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will promote dry weather with high pressure over the area Tuesday night and then moving east on Wednesday. This will allow for southerly flow to develop and bring above normal temperatures to the area with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 329 AM EST Monday...Southwest flow aloft becomes established over the area Wednesday night through Thursday night. This will continue to bring above normal temperatures to the region. Temperatures will remain above freezing Wednesday night and Thursday night and highs on Thursday will be in the 50s. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees above normal on Thursday and low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal. The weather will be dry Wednesday night, but then increasing moisture on Thursday could bring a few light rain showers to the area, especially across northern New York. Forcing will be a limiting factor. This will change Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave trough moves across eastern Canada and this will bring a cold front into the area during this time period. The threat of rain will increase during this time period, but precipitation amounts at this time look to be less than a quarter inch. Typically this would not be enough precipitation to bring about a flood concern given the extended period of snowmelt due to the above normal temperatures. Nevertheless flood concerns will need to be monitored as we could lose quite a bit of snow later this week. Some of the long range data for river levels suggest mainstem rivers in southern Vermont could reach action stage. A greater concern would exist more on smaller rivers and streams, especially with the potential for ice to break up. The front moves through the area Friday afternoon and the flow aloft turns northwest. This will bring colder air back into the region and bring the snowmelt to and end over the weekend. Looks like some shortwaves want to move down into the region and this could bring a few snow showers to the area, but precipitation chances look low and will only mention a slight chance at this time. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds after 18Z, as some high and mid-level clouds will gradually advance eastward with any ceilings expected to remain above 6000 feet through 00Z, then a gradual lowering through 06z to low VFR or MVFR. Light to calm winds will become steadier and out of the south or southwest after 20Z. All sites besides BTV and PBG will have some LLWS as surface winds remain light but winds aloft increase. After 06z could see some light precipitation, but have not included in TAFs at this time. Outlook... Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance FZDZ. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Neiles is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.