Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 142354 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 654 PM EST Fri Dec 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably mild and generally quiet weather continues into Sunday under variably cloudy skies and a brief window of showers this evening as a weak front moves across the area. A stronger cold front pushes through the area on Monday with a renewed threat of snow showers with colder air returning to the region by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 605 PM EST Friday...Water vapor shows short wave energy and ribbon of slightly higher mid level moisture streaming across northern NY into VT this evening. This moisture and dynamics is helping to produce a band of mostly light rain, with occasional moderate rain being reported at MSS. Have expanded likely/cat pops mainly along and north of a KOGS to SLK to MPV line thru this evening with some downslope shadowing likely across the cpv. KCXX VAD shows 30 to 40 knots 925mb to 850mb winds from the southwest ahead of approaching trof. Otherwise, highest qpf of 0.10 to 0.20 will be near the international border, with some mix of snow toward the summits and across the northeast Kingdom of VT. Based on thermal profiles and summit temps, expect snow levels around 3500 to 4000 feet, except lower across the NEK, because of lingering pocket of 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles below 0C. Otherwise, temps hold mainly steady overnight in the mid 30s to near 40f with southerly winds, clouds and precip. Expect most of the precip to end across northern VT by 03z, which is covered nicely in forecast. Previous discussion below: Cloudy skies abound across the area as of mid afternoon as southerly flow remains established in advance of a weak northern stream trough approaching from southern Ontario. Modest dynamical forcing on the front end of this feature should be enough to spark a 3-6 window of scattered/numerous light showers across our far northern counties into the evening hours and as such highest pops (40-60%) will be carried in this area accordingly. Further south just a stray sprinkle will be possible. Thermal profiles continue to support mainly liquid for p-type, but a few spots in the higher northern terrain and in portions of far northeastern VT may see an occasional mix with snow. Any accumulations will be minimal however. Temperatures to hold fairly steady in the 30s to around 40 overnight before falling slightly toward sunrise as associated weak cold front crosses the area switching winds to light west/northwesterly. Other than a few lingering sprinkles/light snow showers across the far north Saturday morning mainly dry and quiet weather continues into Saturday night as surface high pressure bridges across southern Canada. Variably cloudy skies with occasional breaks to remain the rule as temperatures remain fairly close to mid-December seasonal norms (lows 15 to 25 and highs in the 30s). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 237 PM EST Friday...An upper level cutoff low will be tracking up from the Gulf Coast as an inland system Sunday. Widespread rain across the southeast will deplete the system of moisture as it heads towards New England. Some light precip may make it into southern Vermont Sunday afternoon but at the same time a northern stream upper level trough will be digging through the Great Lakes. That should quickly push the inland runner offshore. The combination of the inland runner pulling offshore, and the advancing upper level trough should bring some precipitation to the North Country generally by mid day on Monday. The upper level support and dynamic cooling Monday should lead to modest orographic snowfall with the western slopes seeing 1-3 inches of new snow. Temps should be a few degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows overnight should only fall to the upper 20 to low 30s which is well above normal for this time of year. Monday afternoon and evening expect temps to start to fall as we get under the influence of cold air advection and lows fall much closer back to near normal with lows in the teens to low 20s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 237 PM EST Friday...High pressure builds in on Tuesday and through the middle of the week the forecast looks pretty quiet until the end of the week as the next system moves in. Tuesday and Tuesday night certainly seem to be the coldest days as we stay under cold air advection and temps sit below normal for mid December. Expect highs in the teens to 20s with lows Tuesday night in the low teens to single digits. The high pressure shifts east of the region Wednesday and southerly flow starts to push warm air advection back into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Heading into the weekend the forecast remains fairly murky as to exactly what will happen. The general idea as that an upper level trough will develop on the lee side of the Rocky`s and start tracking across the eastern half of the CONUS. The question ends up being where does the surface low develop and how does it materialize. For the time being I`ve leaned towards the GFS solution largely based on the idea that the northern stream trough through this winter has been stronger than the southern stream counterparts. Thus I`d lean more towards the idea we get a clipper type low that develops and brings modest snow to the North Country Friday night into Saturday. Still plenty of details to be worked out though before any of that happens. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...Predominantly MVFR conditions will continue through 12Z as a shortwave aloft moves through overnight. Northern NY terminals along with KBTV seeing some light to moderate rain showers move through, which are expected to taper off between 02Z and 06Z. May see some isolated and temporary IFR ceilings/visibilities at KMSS and KSLK between now and 12Z, however expecting general improvement to widespread VFR by 18Z. 5-15 kt southerly/southwesterly winds will trend lighter overnight (3-10 kts) and become westerly/northwesterly after 12Z. The exception will be the Champlain Valley including KBTV, which may see southerly gusts to 25 kts continue through 04Z. Also have included some marginal LLWS in the Rutland TAF through 08Z with light southeasterly winds at the surface and a 35 to 45 kt southwesterly jet aloft. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... As of 235 PM EST Friday...A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect tonight. Southerly winds, generally in the 15 to 25 knot range with occasional gusts to 30 knots are expected this evening before slowly abating later tonight. These winds will create choppy to rough conditions on open waters and in bays/inlets with open southerly exposures. Caution is advised for those with recreational interests on the water tonight. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Taber SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...RSD MARINE...JMG

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