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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 030218
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1018 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep skies clear and temperatures cool for the
morning and mild for the afternoons through early Independence Day.
Precipitation chances return Monday evening through late Tuesday
evening as a frontal system moves through the region. Temperatures
will be trending below normals Tuesday and Wednesday before warming
back to around averages late in the week; conditions become more
unsettled late next with with periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1014 PM EDT Saturday...No changes needed to the previous
forecast. Temperatures overall have been dropping quickly under
clear skies and light winds. Seasonably cool temperatures look
to be on track for tonight with near normal temperatures
expected again on Sunday.

Previous Discussion...High pressure will be firmly in place
through Sunday night with daytime breezes out of the west through
northwest. Shallow valley radiation inversion are expected tonight
and Sunday night keeping winds light. Fog isn`t a particular concern
tonight since winds aloft will be 10-20mph above the inversion
keeping enough mixing to preclude fog formation at valley surfaces.
Inversion strength increases Sunday night with some valleys passably
seeing patchy fog. Otherwise, overnight temperatures tonight and
tomorrow night will be on the cooler side with lows in the 50s for
main valleys and mid/upper 40s for the Adirondacks and northeastern
Vermont.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...Overall a quiet and dry start to
Independence Day is expected. High temperatures will be quite
seasonable in the mid 70s to around 80. As we head into the evening,
precipitation chances begin to increase from west to east as a
warm front noses in from Ontario. Increasing moisture advection
along with some isentropic ascent should support some shower
activity moving into the BTV forecast area overnight, though
coverage will just be scattered and QPF generally light.
Instability will be weak given warm air advection in the mid-
levels that will promote weak lapse rates. Have forecast QPF up
to around a quarter of an inch. Overnight lows Monday night will
be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...A developing weak area of low pressure
will pass just to our south on Tuesday. With a Bermuda High in place
over the western Atlantic, much of the eastern US will experience
humid conditions as Gulf of Mexico-sourced moisture is pumped
northeastward. However, with the track of the weak low staying just
to our south, it appears we will be just north of the
moisture/temperature gradient and spared the brunt of the sultry
conditions. Nonetheless, will see enough moisture and weak
convergence as the low moves through to see some additional
scattered light to moderate intensity showers Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Lapse rates will again be quite weak on Tuesday, so have
kept mention of thunder out of the forecast. Highs Tuesday will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Quiet weather is then forecast for Wednesday as high pressure moves
through behind the departing low. Temperatures Wednesday will be in
the 70s. Conditions turn a little more unsettled going into the end
of the week, though difficult to go into too much detail at this
point given the discrepancies among different model guidance
with regards to the amplification of the upper-level flow. Have
stayed close to the National Blend forecast during this time
frame, with just some 10-30 percent precipitation chances and
near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...Clear skies with just a few sporadic wisps
of cirrus clouds are expected through the forecast period with
drier air filtering into the region. Light winds tonight become
gusty from the west/northwest during the late morning hours with
good mixing under plentiful sunshine. Winds will likely max out
around 20-22 knots and will again go light and variable around
sunset tomorrow night.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Clay
SHORT TERM...Duell
LONG TERM...Duell
AVIATION...Clay