Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 191846 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 246 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains well entrenched across the North Country. Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and dry weather over the North Country through midweek. A coastal low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina Coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system still look to be to our south and east, however can`t rule out some precipitation over areas of Vermont Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM EDT Monday...High pressure continues to build across the North Country this afternoon. Clear skies have been observed across the region thanks to subsidence associated with the high pressure and precipitable water values ranging from 0.05 inches to 0.10 inches. Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon hours as steep surface lapse rates have set up with temperatures warming into the 20s and 850 mb temperatures still in the -13C to -15C range. Once temperatures start cooling around sunset, the boundary layer should quickly decouple and gusty winds will quickly come to an end. Temperatures tonight could be a little tricky as a diffuse shortwave is slated to track across the region. Given precipitable water values 0.10 inches or less, it`s difficult to imagine and precipitation will be squeezed out. However, there is the potential for some cirrus to move over the region between 06Z and 12Z on Tuesday which may inhibit radiational cooling. However, at this moment, the shortwave looks rather unimpressive on both water vapor imagery and visible imagery which leans the forecast away from any cloud cover during the overnight hours. That being said, temperatures will once again be well below normal tonight but should be a few degrees warmer across the board than the past several night as the air mass continues to modify. 850 mb temperatures continue to warm with models progging temperatures warming from -15C this afternoon to -7C by this time tomorrow. Temperatures in Saranac lake will drop to around -10F tonight while most other locations will remain in the single digits to lower teens. Wednesday will see temperatures warming into the upper 20s to lower 30s as temperatures off the surface continue to warm. Winds should be light as less mixing is expected with warming elevated temperatures and the low level jet at 850 mb weakens. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 PM EDT Monday...No real change in the forecast in regards to the potential impact from another coastal low developing off the Carolina coast early Wednesday. While model trends are hedging a tad further north, the consensus low track remains south and east of the benchmark with the best deep layer moisture and lift well southeast of the North Country. Will offer a slight increase in PoPs in the southeast corner of Windsor county Wednesday evening/night but still only in the chance category with perhaps a dusting to an inch of light snow possible by Thursday morning. Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies will persist through the period with only a slight chance of light snow and/or flurries with no accumulations expected at this time. Temps will remain well below normal with highs only in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the teens to mid 20s.
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As of 245 PM EDT Monday...Overall large scale pattern through the end of the week and much of the weekend will feature a broad upper trough over the Northeast with bits of shortwave energy moving generally south of the area as high pressure to our north keeps the region dry. The result is mainly partly to mostly cloudy skies, temps below normal in the 20s and 30s, and maybe a few mountain snow showers. Heading into Sunday and Monday, an amplifying upper ridge over the central CONUS will look to shift over the Northeast with some sunshine and closer to normal temperatures possible.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18z Tuesday...VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period as high pressure remains dominant. Some gusty winds will be seen at most sites through 22Z-23Z but will quickly diminish once temperatures begin to cool around sunset. Expect winds on Tuesday to be 10 kt or less with a few cirrus clouds moving through the region. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clay NEAR TERM...Clay SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Clay is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.