Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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386 FXUS61 KBTV 300656 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 256 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Other than a few possible rain showers over southern Vermont this morning, dry weather will persist over the next several days. After a cool start this morning, a steady warming trend is expected over the weekend and into early next week. Our next chance of showers doesn`t arrive until Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs to be in the low to mid 80s by that time.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...Off to a cool start this morning with temperatures currently ranging from the low/mid 30s in the Adirondacks to low/mid 50s in south central VT. Low pressure scooting by to our south will keep mid/high clouds draped over the southern 2/3 of our region through this morning. A few of the showers associated with this system may make it into far southern Rutland/Windsor Counties, but overall expect a dry day for the North Country and Vermont. Sunshine will increase through the afternoon as the low and cloud cover shift to the east. Ridging will begin to build in behind the low, keeping conditions dry through Friday. Today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are expected to reach into the mid 60s to low 70s. Tonight will be another cool night; the cold hollows in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could well see patchy frost as they dip into the mid 30s. Elsewhere, lows will generally be in the 40s. Friday will feature abundant sunshine with just a few passing clouds. Highs will be warmer than today in spite of continued northwest flow; afternoon temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...Very quiet weather is in store for the region Friday nigh through Saturday night as deep layer ridging builds eastward across the North Country. With the building ridge, Saturday will mark the beginning of a noticeable warming trend that will continue well into next week with highs climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Plentiful sunshine is expected on Saturday given strong subsidence aloft. Those with outdoor plans are in for a treat this weekend but be sure to dress for to the conditions as temperatures in the mountains will only warm into the 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...The warming trend continues Sunday through the middle of next week with temperatures each day a degree or two warmer than the last. We have some low hanging fruit in terms of record high temperatures at Montpelier where we are expected to be within 3 degrees of record high temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday. The aforementioned deep layer ridging will begin to shift eastward by midweek which should allow for increasing cloud cover Tuesday and Wednesday. The jury remains out on when our next rainfall chances may occur but the latest 00Z guidance shows that we could see some showers beginning Tuesday afternoon/evening and continuing into the second half of next week. These shower probabilities are solely based on the upper level ridge shifting eastward and global guidance tries to be too progressive with the breaking down of blocking patterns so it`s feasible to think the rain chances may be delayed until later in the week. Stay tuned, but in the mean time, enjoy some very pleasant weather for early June.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. Mid/high clouds will spread over the region through mid-morning Thursday, but ceilings will remain AOA 4000 ft. Expect fair weather cumulus to develop around 5000 ft after 15z, then dissipate after sunset. Some localized fog will be possible in sheltered valleys, but with increasing cloud cover, confidence in areal extent is low. Have therefore just included vicinity fog at KSLK/KEFK, but would not be surprised if brief IFR conditions are reported, especially at KSLK. Light and variable winds will increase to 6 to 10 knots after 13z, then subside again by 02z. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Clay LONG TERM...Clay AVIATION...Hastings