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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 081503
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1003 AM EST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system crosses Northern New York and Vermont
tonight into Tuesday bringing just a chance for some light
precipitation. Warming trend commences on Wednesday on strong
southerly flow, temperatures will be well above seasonal normals
from Wednesday through Friday. A cold front crosses the region
on Friday bringing additional light precipitation, and dropping
temperatures back to near seasonal normals on Saturday, and below
normal on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 958 AM EST Monday...Temperatures quickly rebounding from
our cold night as a result of our March Sun and calm winds
across the forecast area. A warm front is now shifting into
western New York towards Buffalo. This front will work its way
towards the North Country later tonight. Since precipitation is
reaching the ground there, decided to slightly bump up PoPs this
evening. Otherwise, the forecast is in great shape with just
some minor tweaks to hourly trends. Previous discussion below.

The first half of today will feature sunny skies and light
winds as high pressure crests over our area this afternoon,
temperatures will rise into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds
will pick up out of the south southwest during the afternoon as
clouds also move into the the area from the west. This will be
in advance of a warm front approaching from the Great Lakes area
associated with a weak low pressure system which will track
north of our forecast area overnight. As the low tracks north of
our area, associated warm and cold fronts are dragged across
our forecast area. Not a lot of moisture associated with this
system, and will initially have a dry air mass in place. Best
forcing will also remain north of our region, closer to parent
low. Therefore have kept probability of precipitation to just a
chance and mainly in the higher elevations. We dry aloft while
moisture lingers at low- levels as the night progresses, so any
snow showers could transition to more of a freezing drizzle,
especially after midnight. Any snow accumulation would be less
than an inch and limited to higher terrain, while little to no
ice accretion is expected. Temperatures will likely fall early,
then rise or hold steady overnight, especially from the Green
Mountains westward, as a west-southwest jet proceeds the upper
trough`s arrival. Lows will be coldest in the Northeast Kingdom,
where it will drop into the mid teens, while areas west of the
Green Mountains will remain in the mid and upper 20s. Light
mountain snow showers or freezing drizzle will linger into the
morning hours on Tuesday. But it will be short lived as another
ridge of surface high pressure will edge into our area by
Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday will begin our warming trend and
temperatures on Tuesday afternoon will top out in the mid 30s to
lower 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Monday...Upper ridge builds into the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will promote dry weather with
high pressure over the area Tuesday night and then moving east
on Wednesday. This will allow for southerly flow to develop and
bring above normal temperatures to the area with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EST Monday...Southwest flow aloft becomes
established over the area Wednesday night through Thursday
night. This will continue to bring above normal temperatures to
the region. Temperatures will remain above freezing Wednesday
night and Thursday night and highs on Thursday will be in the
50s. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees above normal on
Thursday and low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday night
will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal. The weather will be dry
Wednesday night, but then increasing moisture on Thursday could
bring a few light rain showers to the area, especially across
northern New York. Forcing will be a limiting factor. This will
change Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave trough moves
across eastern Canada and this will bring a cold front into the
area during this time period. The threat of rain will increase
during this time period, but precipitation amounts at this time
look to be less than a quarter inch. Typically this would not be
enough precipitation to bring about a flood concern given the
extended period of snowmelt due to the above normal
temperatures. Nevertheless flood concerns will need to be
monitored as we could lose quite a bit of snow later this week.
Some of the long range data for river levels suggest mainstem
rivers in southern Vermont could reach action stage. A greater
concern would exist more on smaller rivers and streams,
especially with the potential for ice to break up. The front
moves through the area Friday afternoon and the flow aloft turns
northwest. This will bring colder air back into the region and
bring the snowmelt to and end over the weekend. Looks like some
shortwaves want to move down into the region and this could
bring a few snow showers to the area, but precipitation chances
look low and will only mention a slight chance at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue through this
afternoon. Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds after
18Z, as some high and mid-level clouds will gradually advance
eastward with any ceilings expected to remain above 6000 feet
through 00Z, then a gradual lowering through 06z to low VFR or
MVFR. Light to calm winds will become steadier and out of the
south or southwest after 20Z. All sites besides BTV and PBG will
have some LLWS as surface winds remain light but winds aloft
increase. After 06z could see some light precipitation, but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
FZDZ.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Neiles