Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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759 FXUS61 KBTV 211958 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 358 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will begin to deteriorate tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure displaces high pressure and brings the return of rainfall to the region. Rain will continue through Wednesday afternoon before exiting to the east. Skies will clear heading into Thursday and will continue to remain mostly clear through the first half of the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal with temperatures a degree or two with each passing day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure currently spinning just north of Lake Erie will continue to slide off to the northeast overnight, dragging its attendant cold front in its wake. Showers associated with a shortwave ahead of the upper trough are moving into the St Lawrence Valley at this hour, and this activity will gradually spread northward through the evening hours. The best dynamics will remain to our north, but can`t rule out a stray rumble of thunder or two. Otherwise, mainly scattered to numerous showers expected tonight, first in northern New York, and likely not reaching eastern Vermont until midnight or later as the pre-frontal trough moves eastward. PWATS will again approach 2 inches as moisture streams northward ahead of the front, so some briefly heavy rain will be possible as well. This influx of moisture will also keep temperatures up in the 60s to around 70 tonight. The cold front will push eastward across the region Wednesday morning into early afternoon, and this may again serve as the focus for a few thunderstorms. Drier air will spill into the region behind the front, bringing showers to an end from west to east during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Rainfall totals will be a quarter to a half inch. Tomorrow`s highs will be cooler than today owing to more cloud cover and the aforementioned frontal passage, mainly in the lower to mid 70s, with some spots in the higher elevations staying in the 60s. The other concern for tonight and Wednesday will be gusty winds, first south to southwest ahead of the front, then turning to the west and northwest post-front tomorrow afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph will be possible. For Wednesday night...clearing skies and continuing northwest flow will allow for a refreshing night in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...Thursday and Thursday night will feature dry weather with seasonable temperatures. High pressure will shift eastward into our area bringing a cooler and drier air mass with it, providing the North Country with a very pleasant day. Thursday night will see the high pressure ridge build and crest overhead, so we`ll have an ideal radiational cooling night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...Ridge of surface high pressure will remain over the region through Friday night with fair weather continuing through this time frame. High pressure slides East and off the coast Saturday, and a weak upper level trough will approach from our west. As the center of the surface high shifts to the Mid-Atlantic, mid to upper-level flow will becoming increasingly westerly and tap into warmer air from the central US. This will allow for surface temperatures to warm back up to the upper 70s/low 80s range. To our west a closed upper level low over the Northern Plains will become an open wave and lift north of our region. Still a lot of uncertainty but we may end up seeing some showers from this Saturday night, but very weak forcing. Heading into next week, we may see a large scale pattern change with the northern tier of the country seeing a more westerly and progressive weather pattern. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 00z or so with just mid and high clouds spreading over the region. Lower ceilings will move in from west to east this evening and overnight along with rain showers. Visibility and ceilings will only lower to MVFR overnight, with the exception being KMPV and KSLK which will see ceilings below 1000 ft late tonight into early Wednesday. Showers will begin to end from west to east after 12z Wednesday and ceilings will rise late in the forecast period. Winds will mainly be south to southwest through the period with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range. Outlook... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A lake wind advisory is in effect for tonight through Wednesday as south winds increase into the 15 to 25 knot range tonight, then shift to the west Wednesday afternoon. Winds of this magnitude will create waves of 3 to 5 feet and rather choppy conditions, especially over the northern half of Lake Champlain tonight and then the east side of the lake on Wednesday once the winds shift to the west. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Hastings MARINE...Evenson

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