-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
038
FXUS61 KBTV 270224
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1024 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail this weekend, with plentiful sunshine
and low humidity. Temperatures will start off near seasonable
normals tomorrow, but they will rise well above normal on
Sunday. The dry weather continues through Monday, but the
humidity will begin to increase. Shower chances return for the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1019 PM EDT Friday...Forecast generally on track with
temperatures falling into the 60s and 70s as well as light and
variable winds. There remains some Canadian wildfire smoke
aloft, and some of it may even be lingering at the surface
overnight tonight. Lowest visibilities reported this hour are
8-9 miles, so no real concern for visibility restrictions as
smoke continues to drift southward. Have increased cloud cover
slightly as there are lingering clouds at about 6000-8000 feet
above ground level. Otherwise, forecast is on track for a quiet
night and some patchy valley fog. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Pleasant weather with cooler temperatures
and low humidity will continue for the rest of the day. A weak
reinforcing cold front will pass through this afternoon and it
could set off a brief shower over the higher elevations of
northern Vermont. Any of these showers would be light and
relatively unimpactful. Western wildfire smoke is impacting the
region this afternoon, and while most of it is aloft, some of it
has been able to mix down to the surface. This has caused some
lowered air quality across northern Vermont and northern New
York, particularly in the Northeast Kingdom. Some of the smoke
will continue through tonight and keep the lower air quality in
place. Winds will lighten up this evening and combined with
relatively dry air and mostly clear skies, there will be
efficient radiational cooling. This will cause low temperatures
to fall into the 50s and upper 40s away from immediate Lake
Champlain. Patchy fog should develop in the climatologically
favored valleys. With the boundary layer decoupling, any near
surface smoke that lingers into the evening will not be able to
dissipate until the day tomorrow. Temperatures will rise a
little higher tomorrow compared to today, but humidity will
remain low with dew points staying in the 50s. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Efficient radiational cooling will
occur tomorrow night and temperatures will fall back into the
50s and lower 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Friday...Surface high pressure will dominate
regional weather conditions through Monday with seasonably warm and
dry weather expected. A cutoff upper low that is progged to form
along the north wall of the Gulf Stream on Sunday will drift
northwest toward Cape Cod into Monday, though with little fanfare
other than to perhaps spread some scattered mid/high level cloud
cover into our region from the southeast. Daily highs should range
through the 80s to locally near 90 in the warmest spots, while
overnight lows range through the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Friday...Conditions remain warm, not hot, but with
an increasing level of humidity from Tuesday onward of next week as
a fairly deep longwave trough pulls east from the Midwest/Great
Lakes region and more consistent southerly flow develops. This will
foster increasing chances of showers and a few storms through the
period, most focused during the afternoon/early evening hours. Can`t
rule out a locally stronger storm on any of these days, however,
lapse rates and PBL instability appear modest at best, and as such
more organized severe weather looks unlikely, at least at this
point. As mentioned above, there will be a greater level of humidity
in the air, not uncommon for mid-summer, so overnight lows will
likely hold on the warmer side - generally 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Primarily VFR conditions expected
throughout the TAF period with only exceptions being some
localized valley fog and some occasional smoke. Most likely
location for fog formation will be valleys of eastern Vermont as
well as the northern Adirondacks. Not expecting widespread
dense fog in these locations, but have forecast some 2-6SM BR
between 06Z and 12Z at KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK. These sites may see
brief reductions below 1SM closer to 09-12z, but confidence in
dense fog is not high enough to include mention in the TAFs at
this point. Otherwise, will continue to see some smoke over the
area from wildfires in the western US. Smoke will mainly stay aloft
but occasionally mix down to the surface. For the most part,
not expecting visibility restrictions at the surface due to
smoke, but can`t rule out some occasional 6SM smoke
observations. Winds will be light and variable and terrain
driven overnight, then become northwesterly tomorrow.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Duell