Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 211940 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 340 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Shower chances will return on Tuesday as a weak low pressure system moves through the area followed by a cold front Wednesday. Thereafter, high pressure will bring seasonably mild and dry weather on Thursday, then warmer on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 338 PM EDT Monday...Today`s beautiful weather continues through this evening with high pressure slowly sliding by just to the south. Clouds will increase overnight as a weak low pressure system approaches from the west. This increasing cloud cover as well as south flow developing around the back of the high will keep temperatures in the 45-55 range for much of the North Country tonight. The aforementioned low pressure system will move across our area on Tuesday. Warm advection out ahead of this system will bring another shot of rain to the region. Rain won`t start first thing in the morning as it will take a bit for things to saturate enough for it to reach the ground, but do anticipate rain to spread from west to east starting mid-morning or so, reaching the CT River Valley by early afternoon. The rain will persist into the evening hours until the low moves to our east. Winds will then turn northwest, ushering in drier air. Influx of cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures down on Tuesday, close to or just below normal. This in turn will help to limit instability during the day. However, note that there will be some elevated instability Tuesday evening as the low moves through, which may be enough for a rumble of thunder or two. SPC`s Day 2 outlook does have south-central VT included in the general thunder area, but as the best instability will remain to our south, have not included mention of thunder in the forecast at this point. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 338 PM EDT Monday...No real big changes from the previous forecast thinking for the middle to end of the work week with models remaining very consistent. Overall big picture highlights an upper trough with some modest shortwave energy tracking through ME/NH skirting our northeast zones on Wednesday, followed by high pressure for Thursday and Friday. Outside of a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms across northern areas Wednesday, the rest of the week will be dry with temps ranging through the 70s on Wednesday, cooler in the upper 60s to low 70s for Thursday, and significantly warmer in the upper 70s to low 80s on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 338 PM EDT Monday..Still a ton of uncertainty for the holiday weekend with little model run to run consistency. Latest GFS and Canadian GEM show a frontal zone and digging upper trough over central Quebec dropping southward into the Northeast Friday night through Saturday, with an upper level ridge and surface high pressure building in for Sunday and Monday. This is in stark contrast to previous runs, while the ECMWF has remained more consistent showing the trough well farther northeast over the Canadian maritimes. The ECMWF still highlights a frontal zone moving over the region Friday night into Saturday, but without the trough to kick it out, wetter and warmer conditions prevail through the weekend. Moderate forecast confidence at this point that we`ll see some rainfall Friday night into Saturday, but beyond that confidence is very low. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z TUESDAY...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Clear skies will dominate this afternoon, then high clouds will increase ahead of a weak low pressure system moving in from the west. Ceilings will lower to 5-10 kft after 12z Tuesday, with showers moving into KMSS, KSLK, KRUT, and KMPV around 15z Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.