-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 251126
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deeper moisture moving up from the mid-Atlantic region today with
bring occasional rain to the North Country. A trough of low pressure
will move in from the west tonight and Thursday and continue to
bring fairly widespread rain to the area. Plenty of cloud cover
today and Thursday will result in temperatures at or slightly below
seasonal normals. Drier weather moves in for Thursday and the first
half of Friday before the chance of rain increases once again Friday
afternoon and continues right through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 702 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall forecast in good shape.
Widespread clouds have held temperatures up overnight and there
has been occasional light rain moving from southwest to
northeast across the area. Will see much of the same throughout
the day today and going forecast has this covered well.

Previous Discussion...
Enough dry air has been in place early this morning to hold off
any precipitation...but eventually enough saturation occurs for
precipitation to move up into the area from the south. Raining
across the southern half of New York and western Massachusetts
and so its only a matter of time before it starts raining in our
area. Precipitation chances ramp up to categorical as a
result...and have kept this idea going from previous shifts.
Initial surge of moisture does not look too heavy and there will
likely be some breaks along with a southeast downslope
component across western Vermont later today. So have mentioned
occasional rain for today. Highs will generally be in the 50s
today with plenty of cloud cover expected.

Occasional rain continues early tonight before dry slot moves up
into the region...which will help to decrease precipitation chances
across Vermont overnight. At the same time...upstream trough begins
to reach northern New York and with increasing dynamic support ahead
of the trough the best precipitation chances will continue across
northern New York overnight. Eventually this feature gradually moves
east into Vermont Thursday afternoon and the areal coverage of
showers should increase just about everywhere before tapering off
from west to east late in the day on Thursday. Extensive cloud cover
along with the rain should keep high temperatures generally in the
50s once again. Expected rainfall today through Thursday afternoon
should be in the half to three quarter inch range with locally
higher amounts. With temperatures remaining above freezing there
should be snowmelt taking place...but with temperatures not reaching
as warm as what they have been...river responses should not be
significant. Yes there will be rises and a couple of rivers could
get to action stage...but rainfall and snowmelt do not look like
they will be enough to cause more substantial problems. Nevertheless
will continue to monitor the hydrologic situation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Vertically stacked low pressure
system will push well east of the region on Thursday night and
showers will come to an end during the first part of the
overnight after lingering a bit across the Northern Vermont
mountains. Another surface low pressure system will lift
Northward on Friday from the Mid Atlantic region towards
southern New York and New England. Increasing clouds and chance
for precipitation are expected for Vermont with this system.
Best chance for showers will be in our Southeastern zones. This
Southern stream low will be just ahead of another northern
stream wave digging from the Great Lakes region Eastward. There
were previous model discrepancies with these features, but now
have come into better line with each other. Have continued with
previous forecaster`s thinking, lower temps on Fri and
increasing pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Upper level trough along with
Northern stream energy swing through our area for Friday night
into Saturday and weather remains cool and unsettled with plenty
of clouds and scattered showers. Upper level trough will bring
cool air mass with it and temperatures will be cool again
through Sunday. Warmer and drier weather will return for the Mon
through Wed timeframe next week with a large area of high
pressure anchoring over the Eastern conus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 12z Thursday...Deeper moisture moving up into the
region this morning from the south will allow for VFR ceilings
to lower into the MVFR category after about 14z and remain there
through about 02z when some periods of IFR ceilings may
develop for the remainder of the period...especially across
northern New York. Despite increasing chances for rain this
morning visibilities will remain in the VFR category and will
eventually lower into the MVFR category after about 21z when
precipitation becomes a bit more steady. Winds will generally be
10 knots or less through the period.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Evenson