


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --483 FXUS61 KBTV 140623 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 223 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --A slow moving cold front will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area today, some of which could produce heavy rainfall. Drier weather returns for Tuesday, but heat builds through mid week, peaking on Wednesday. Then another frontal passage will lead to increased thunder chances for Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 222 AM EDT Monday...Showers and thunderstorms have waned early this morning now that we`ve fully lost diurnal heating. There`s still plenty of moisture though as we remain south of the incoming cold front. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows a ribbon of 1.7+ inch PWATs stretching across our forecast area, and this combined with a weakening MCV is helping to keep additional shower activity going across portions of central and eastern NY. Some of this may make it into our forecast area during the early morning hours, but expect the bulk of any precipitation to hold off until after sunrise. Heating will allow for quick destabilization, and SB CAPEs will quickly rise above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Winds will trend a bit more toward the west as the front makes its push southeastward, spreading drier air from northwest to southeast. The latest guidance shows this drier air progressing a bit faster than previously anticipated, likewise shunting the plume of higher PWATs southward. As a result, expect that convection will first develop over northern VT late this morning/early afternoon, but the overall focus will quickly shift southward through the afternoon and evening hours, while the cells themselves keep a decent eastward forward motion. Still anticipate any showers/thunderstorms to be efficient rain makers given the tall, skinny CAPE, deep warm cloud depths, and high PWATs, and rainfall rates could approach 1-2 in/hr at times. But the influx of drier air will help limit potential for training, and note that the threat of 3+ inches in 3 hours has shifted to our south with the latest HREF guidance. 1/3/6 hour flash flood guidance generally remains 1.5-2.5 in/2-3 in/2.5-4 in respectively, with locally lower values in areas that recently received heavy rainfall, ie portions of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. With all that in mind, isolated instances of flash flooding will still be possible today, and much of our area remains in WPC`s Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Radar trends will need to be monitored closely through the day, especially in those aforementioned more-flood susceptible areas. The severe weather threat is fairly minimal today. Mid level lapse rates will generally be poor, and deep layer shear is weak, keeping the threat for strong winds mostly to our south. Otherwise, expect today will be seasonably warm though a few degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will end fairly quickly this evening as we lose heating and drier air spreads into the region. Patchy fog will be possible late, especially in the favored river valleys in eastern Vermont. Lows will be fairly comfortable, in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 222 AM EDT Monday...The story for mid week will be another round of heat and humidity. Ample sunshine will prevail both days, along with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints will generally be in the 60s, which isn`t overly oppressive, but they`ll still make for muggy days and nights. Wednesday will be the warmest day with 925mb temperatures warming to 25-27C; heat index values are expected to reach into the low to mid 90s in many locations. Heat advisories will likely be needed for mid week; we`ll continue to monitor trends closely.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 222 AM EDT Monday...A more meaningful cold front will finally pass through late this week, but its exact timing and impacts are still uncertain. Showers associated with a prefrontal trough look likely for part of Thursday, but they do not look widespread enough to keep temperatures from reaching the mid 80s to low 90s. The actual cold front looks to move through sometime either Thursday night or Friday. If it passes through during the day some stronger storms could be possible due to diurnal heating. While any storms associated with the front should have decent storm motion and potentially prevent much of a flood risk, some of them beforehand could be slower moving. Combined with ingredients very favorable for heavy rain like high PWATs and very large warm cloud depths, the threat will have to be watched. The WPC has placed the region in a marginal risk for flash flooding for this reason. Behind the front, a few showers chances continue for the weekend but temperatures should be much closer to seasonable.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently all terminals are VFR ahead of a cold front, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms stretching across northern New York and northwestern Vermont. Within the heavier showers, there will be temporary IFR conditions. Through the next six hours this should be primarily at Vermont TAF sites as most of the stronger convection is pushing northeastward out of the Adirondacks. There are additional showers trailing behind in northern New York with generally VFR visibilities and ceilings. While MVFR ceilings are favored at sites like EFK and MPV towards daybreak as some lowering of ceilings occurs behind the heavy rain tonight, there should be enough southwesterly flow off the deck to help scour out the near surface moisture. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions should persist. Winds have diminished with the precipitation moving into the area, but will tend to remain southerly through at least 12Z. In northern New York a wind shift to westerly will occur after that time with the cold frontal passage. Farther east, winds will turn westerly towards 15-20Z, leading to a window of at least a few hours in which showers and possibly a thunderstorm may develop. Outlook... Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Myskowski AVIATION...Danzig/Kutikoff