Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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295 FXUS61 KBTV 180547 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 147 AM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A deep trough across the North Country will continue to produce occasional valley rain and mountain snow showers through Wednesday. Some light snow accumulation is likely in the higher elevations as much below normal temperature prevail. A brief break in precipitation is expected later Wednesday before another system arrives with more rain and snow Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 141 AM EDT Wednesday...No change to crnt forecast or grids, as all elements are well captured based on observations and latest radar trends. Very light snow has developed at slk with vis down to 4sm and radar shows upstream activity rotating into northern ny this morning. So anticipate the areal coverage of light snow to increase, which is covered well with likely to cat pops. Accumulations will be less than 1 inch. Temps will range from the mid 20s to l 30s most areas for overnight lows. Prior discussion... Cool and showery weather will persist through the middle of the week as we remain under the influence of upper low pressure pinwheeling overhead. The low center will shift eastward tonight and Wednesday, allowing the precipitation to become more focused in the higher terrain, particularly the western slopes of the northern Greens/Adirondacks with west to northwest flow. Temperatures will drop into the mid and upper 20s in the mountain areas; hence expect mainly snow in these areas, while the wider valleys will see a rain/snow mix with lows in the lower 30s. Temperatures warm back into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Wednesday, switching the snow back over to rain for all but the highest terrain. Additional snow accumulation through Wednesday will be 1 to 3 inches in the mountains, with most other areas less than an inch. We`ll see a very brief break in the more widespread precipitation Wednesday evening as upper ridging builds into the region, but more snow will spread into the region after midnight ahead of the next system approaching from the west. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /3 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Next in a series of upper troughs gradually moves across the area Thursday and Thursday night. This will result in widespread precipitation across the area. Thermal profile still remains supporting of snow in the higher elevations with rain in the valleys. Because of the timing...lower elevations may have some snow mixed in as well. But road surfaces in the valleys are warm enough that there should not be much in the way of travel impacts. Highs will be in the 30s to lower 40s. Eventually the upper trough axis moves east of the region Thursday night and precipitation should become more terrain driven with time as flow aloft becomes more northwest. Plenty of cloud cover remains with lows generally in the 30s...which means the potential will exist for some lower elevation snow as well...but with little impact. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 306 PM EDT Tuesday...Area remains in north to northwest flow aloft on Friday...and Saturday for that matter. Should see plenty of clouds and scattered showers on Friday...but depth of moisture begins to decrease on Saturday to help limit precipitation. Highs will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Trends in the data support the idea of an upper ridge building into the region starting Sunday and persisting over the region through Tuesday. Thus looking at an extended period of dry weather...and with flow becoming more west and southwest with time...a warming trend should also develop with highs in the 50s on Monday and mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...TAF challenge will continue to be periods of ifr at slk today and brief windows of ifr at mss in light snow and lowering cigs. Current radar shows light snow rotating back into northern ny taf sites with slk down to 4sm. Thinking MVFR will prevail with occasional ifr with vis btwn 1-3sm at mss/slk this morning with best chance between 10-16z. Meanwhile...other taf sites will continue to experience mainly vfr cigs/vis at pbg/btv/rut with mvfr cigs at mpv. The downslope westerly flow will continue to produce mainly vfr conditions in the cpv today, with mvfr prevailing at mpv. Winds will be west/northwest, except southwest at mss at 10 to 15 knots with localized gusts to 20 knots. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Likely SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Taber

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