Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 221834 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 234 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will lead to quiet weather with long awaited warmer temperatures. Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with highs in the 60`s and lows in the 40`s. The next chance of rainfall occurs by Wednesday into Thursday of next week as low pressure tracks through the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 931 AM EDT Sunday...Forecast remains on track for this afternoon. The only real change was to lower surface dewpoints as the boundary layer deepens today and entrains drier air downward. Some variant or close match to most recent MET MOS values seemed reasonable at this point, taking values down into the teens by this afternoon. Have a great day! Prior discussion... High pressure will lead to both the long awaited warmer Springtime temperatures as well as large diurnal swings. The winds overnight have gone calm and temps are dropping rapidly. Expect lows near MOS guidance in the upper 20s to even teens in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. As soon as we see sunlight however anticipate rapid warming across the North Country. 925mb temps in the +4 to +5 support max temps similar to yesterday in the low to mid 50s. Its going to be a blue bird day with plentiful sunshine and mild northwesterly winds. Heading into the evening hours the surface high will be cresting over the region and temps should plummet as radiational cooling takes effect. Boundary layer winds decouple and we will cool rapidly back into the 20s to low 30s again. High clouds should be starting to filter in late overnight so that may temper how cold we get down to. Monday is expected to be another wonderful North Country day as we warm into the mid 60s with light southerly flow and no precip to speak of. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 233 PM EDT Sunday...Well our nice period of weather will quickly come to an end on Weds with anticipated widespread rain event and cooler temperatures. However still expecting increasing mid/upper level clouds late Tuesday with temperatures climbing well into the 60s on developing south winds. The combination of mid/upper level ridge overhead and deep dry layer in place especially thru 18z should produce plenty of sun in the morning on Tuesday. Progged 850mb temps near 5c with good mixing and adding 15c gets btv around 20c for a high on Tuesday. Thinking near 60f slk/nek to near 70f cpv...with slightly cooler values south because of clouds developing. Tuesday will stay dry as leading edge of precip will fall as virga due to very dry low levels. By Weds...southern stream short wave energy and associated deep moisture overspread our cwa from south to north. PWS surge near 1.0 as 1008mb low pres tracks from VA beach at 09z Weds to Portland Maine by 06z Thurs with pres near 1000mb. This track combined with some northern stream short wave energy will produce a widespread rainfall across our on Weds into Thursday. Given the available moisture and forcing and favorable track of sfc low pres...thinking qpf will range between 0.50 and 1.0 by Thurs. Temps will struggle on weds with clouds/precip...thinking heaviest precip arrives toward 18z...with highs only in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s. Will trend pops toward 100% on Weds, based on high confidence it will rain and measure by 00z Thurs.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 233 PM EDT Sunday...An active period of weather is expected as mid/upper level trof redevelops across the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS. This general synoptic scale setup will support above normal precip and below normal temps for days 4 thru 7. Closed 5h and 7h circulation slowly lifts toward northern New England by 12z Thurs...as moderate low level cold air advection develops on brisk 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots. This helps to cool 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles below 0c by 06z Thurs dacks and 12z northern/central Green Mountains with favorable 1000 to 700mb moisture. Soundings show freezing levels dropping to near 2000 feet by 12z Thursday...supporting some snow and potential accumulations in above 1800 feet on Thurs morning. Best chance for a wet snow accumulation would be northern Dacks and from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak in the central/northern Greens. Otherwise...a cold rain continues for the valleys with lows on Thurs Morning in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Mid/upper level trof and associated surface low pres lifts toward northern Maine by 00z with quickly drying profiles aft 18z. Thinking clouds/precip start the morning...with some sun and warming temps in the aftn...based on latest trends. Late week into next weekend uncertainty increases with magnitude of mid/upper level trof and potential of another area of low pres impacting our fa. GFS/ECMWF differ on depth of mid/upper level trof across the Ohio Valley and track of low pres across the eastern conus. GFS is stronger and shows a more phased northern/southern stream with developing low pres...supporting another round of widespread rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile...ecmwf shows an unphased system with weaker sfc development and scattered precip potential, along with slightly warmer thermal profiles. Have continued to mention high chc pops for Friday into next weekend with highs mid 40s to mid 50s and lows generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s depending upon elevation.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...VFR/SKC through the forecast period with no precipitation or restrictions to visibility expected. Winds north to northwesterly at 6 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 18 kts at VT terminals through 00Z before trending light overnight. After 12Z Monday light south/southwesterly flow around 5 kts expected at most terminals. Outlook... Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal/JMG SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...JMG

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