Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 231955 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 355 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected across the North Country through Tuesday. An upper level trough moving southward from southeastern Ontario and Quebec will maintain variably cloudy conditions over the weekend, with just a chance of a snow shower, mainly across the higher elevations of Vermont and northern New York. Temperatures will remain slightly below average for late March through the weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 30s. However, strengthening high pressure early next week will bring increased sunshine and moderating temperatures. Valley highs will be back into the low to mid 40s on Monday, and into the low to mid 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching mid- level trough from the Great Lakes region will bring the potential for scattered rain showers on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 249 PM EDT Friday...Friday afternoon conditions across the North Country include a relatively dry low-level north to northwesterly flow, with low dewpoints (2-m values in the teens), and a slow-moving upper level trough across the srn tier of NY and n-central PA. No significant forcing mechanisms, but with orographic ascent, we`ve seen some weak reflectivity returns (10-20 dBZ) at times across the nrn Adirondacks this afternoon. Dry sub- cloud layer has precluded much in the way of snow flurry activity per area webcams. Shouldn`t see any significant weather overnight, through variably cloudy conditions will be maintained in northerly flow aloft. May see a few mountain flurries or snow showers with little or no accumulation expected. Modest low-level CAA will preclude any strong inversion tonight, so winds should persist NW around 4-8kts after sunset. Consistent with that, temperatures will be relatively uniform across the North Country, with lows in the low-mid 20s, except locally in the upper teens across the nrn Adirondacks. Will see another fair day on Saturday, though temperatures will trend downward several degrees compared to this afternoon. Noting in the 12Z GFS that the 850mb temperatures fall from -8C to -9C 18Z/Friday to -11C to -13C at 18Z/Saturday. Overall, looking at afternoon highs in the low-mid 30s, except in the upper 20s across the nrn Adirondacks and across VT within the 1-2kft elevational band. With yet another upper low with limited moisture pivoting southward from sern Ontario/swrn Quebec, should again see more clouds than sun with a few brief snow showers Saturday/Saturday night, mainly confined to the mountains. May locally see a coating to 0.5" across the higher summits. Lows Saturday night mainly low-mid 20s except mid teens across the nrn Adirondack region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 331 PM EDT Friday...Building high pressure will lead to a pleasant day on Sunday and to start the workweek. We`ll see partly cloudy to clear skies Sunday afternoon with calming winds overnight. That will lead to temps likely crashing much lower than blended guidance. MOS on the order of 5 degrees colder than deterministic guidance and so I`ve tried to show with excellent radiational cooling that temps will likely be much colder Sunday night. I wouldn`t be surprised if SLK and parts of the Northeast Kingdom are in the single digits below zero either Sunday night or Monday night as the high crests over the North Country. Each day should be quiet with no precip expected with light and variable winds each day.
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As of 355 PM EDT Friday...A synoptic blocking pattern remains over the area until the mid week keeping high pressure over the North Country. This will result in warming temperatures with variable cloud cover and cool to cold nights. The dry airmass will support large diurnal swings with upper 40s to 50s during day with overnight lows in the low 20s. By midweek the block breaks down and we see a cold front drag through the North Country. Models are having trouble with any sort of consensus with what the system/wave looks like at that point so the idea of chance rain/snow still is the way I feel comfortable handling the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday. Heading into Friday we`ll see a more active pattern as system from the south will be lifting north and bringing another slug of precip but at the moment there`s quite the spread in timing so we`ll have to continue to watch for development and consensus.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z Saturday...Aviation weather conditions are VFR this afternoon with no restrictions to vsby, and SCT-BKN cloudiness across the North Country with cloud bases generally 5-7Kft. We`ll maintain variably cloudy conditions and NW winds, as one mid-level trough moves across the srn tier of NY/PA, and another moves into sern Ontario/srn Quebec during the daytime hours Saturday. May see isold showers during the period, mainly confined to the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mtns. Have not carried any precipitation at the TAF sites (other than VCSH), though a brief snow shower is possible late tonight into Saturday morning. May see HIR TRRN OBSCD in spots overnight into Saturday morning. Winds will continue NW 5-10kts areawide. A few gusts 15-20kts are possible thru late this afternoon at BTV/MPV/RUT. Outlook... Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Banacos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.