Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 200007 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 807 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift through the North Country this evening, keeping the threat of showers around as well as causing temperatures to warm overnight. A cold front will cross the region on Sunday, bringing showers to an end by the afternoon. High pressure quickly builds back in to start the work week with above normal temperatures and dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 725 PM EDT Saturday...Surface analysis places warm front and associated precip across our northern cwa this evening with water vapor showing developing mid level dry slot. Expect areal coverage of precip to taper off this evening to scattered showers, before next round of showers approaches the slv after 06z. Have decreased pops into the chc range this evening, before ramping back up into the likely/cat associated with sfc cold front. A few localized heavy downpours are possible, given pw values >1.50 and some weak elevated cape in the stronger convective elements. Temps are tricky this evening, but expect them to increase once the precip stops and south/southwest winds develop with values approaching 60f possible across the slv/cpv and l/m 50s elsewhere. Have updated to capture latest hourly trends in both temps/dwpts/winds and pops. Overall, forecast elements are within thresholds just minor tweaks. Previous discussion below: The first round of widespread showers will continue into the evening hours as a warm front lifts northward across New England. Expect we`ll see a brief break in the precipitation for a few hours around midnight or so as the best warm advection moves north and we see a bit of a dry slot. However, showers will return late tonight/early Sunday morning ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. A S-SW low level jet will cross the region out ahead of this cold front with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Note that there will be a bit of elevated instability ahead of the cold front, though models disagree to what degree. The NAM is showing up to 300 J/kg, but this is likely overdone. Still, wouldn`t be surprised if there is a rumble of thunder or two, just don`t expect coverage to be enough to include mention in the forecast. The cold front will be poised at our back door shortly after daybreak Sunday and will make its push across the region during the morning hours. Drier air will quickly follow the frontal passage, bringing the showers to an end and eventually allowing for sunshine by late Sunday afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the higher elevations to around 70 in the wider valleys. Clear skies will dominate Sunday night with high pressure building into the region. Lows will be in the lower to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...A quiet start the work week is expected for Monday as surface high pressure builds into the region along with abundant sunshine. Aloft we remain in west/northwest flow with a departing upper trough to the northeast so winds will be brisk in the 10-15 mph range, but with steep low level lapse rates and 925mb temps in the mid teens above zero celsius, it`ll feel pretty good out there with surface temps warming into the 70s area-wide. Monday night begins clear with winds dropping off supporting excellent radiational cooling, but after midnight high clouds will be on the increase making the min temp forecast tricky. Trended towards colder guidance thinking high clouds will only slightly temper cooling, with lows generally ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. On Tuesday, the main idea is that a weak shortwave trough will traverse the region during the afternoon and evening hours, but confidence is low on precip potential due to difference in guidance on the northern extent of deeper moisture. Think there will likely be some isolated showers around but will offer chance pops for now based on uncertainty. Highs will generally be in the 70s again, with milder overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...Overall, next week looks rather dry as behind the aforementioned shortwave trough passage, high pressure builds in for the remainder of the week through Friday. We potentially get a glancing blow of cooler air from an upper trough passing northeast of the region Wednesday, but highs will still be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is right about normal for this time of year. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Thursday and Friday, before our next chance for precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday. Increasing southwesterly flow between Bermuda high pressure and a cold front pushing into the upper Mid-West will potentially tap into rich Gulf moisture Saturday afternoon, with the wildcard being the juxtaposition of a potential tropical system as depicted in the 12Z GFS. Time will tell on how this all plays out. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Through 00Z MONDAY...Ceilings tonight will be mainly VFR/MVFR as precip has moved off to the east and dry slot begins to move over the area ahead of the cold front tomorrow morning. Have included mention in TAFs of some lower IFR ceilings through 03-04z for both KRUT and KMPV as dry slot likely stays west of them. Winds tonight will remain S from 8-12 kt. As strong SW low level jet develops across the area LLWS and turbulence are expected for all TAF sites except KBTV and KMSS. Due to channeled valley flow and persist gustiness at KBTV have left out mention of LLWS in TAF but do expect turb especially near terrain. Towards morning, cold front will approach from the west with mainly MVFR ceilings. There is some elevated instability, with some potential for convective like showers, thus can`t rule out brief period of IFR visibilities and rumble of thunder between 06-10z. Confidence is marginal on exact location therefore have not mentioned in TAF. Otherwise, winds will increase out of the W-NW as front moves through between 12-15z between 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible. With advection of drier air, ceilings will lift with mainly VFR conditions through the end of the period. Outlook... Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Hastings/LaRocca

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