Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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782 FXUS61 KBTV 210706 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 306 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather returns to the North Country as high pressure builds in. Temperatures remain below normal over the weekend but a warming trend will lead to near to slightly above normal temperatures mid week. Expect plentiful sunshine through the middle of the workweek before rain returns to the region Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 141 AM EDT Saturday...Latest WV/IR satellite still shows a pocket of cloud cover holding on over the North Country. That has kept temps from dropping that quickly this evening and so lows will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s for most the area. By daybreak the clouds should begin to deteriorate as high pressure and dry air builds in. Expect mostly clear skies for the region with some partly clouds skies holding on over the Northeast Kingdom. The warm air wont quite reach the area today so I anticipate another below normal day with highs in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure will continue to build into the region and winds this evening will decouple allowing for radiational cooling to take place under mostly clear skies. Expect chilly conditions in the typical colder locations of the Northeast Kingdom and parts of the Adirondacks. Sunday looks to be a wonderful day as high pressure dominates and we should reach upper 40s to low 50s across the North Country under full sun. Light northwesterly winds will prevail winds with relative humidities dropping into the 30% range. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 PM EDT Friday...Large deep layer ridge will be in place over the Northern New York and Vermont area Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear skies and moderating temperatures are expected. Although temperatures will still be a bit below seasonal normals during this period, the weather will be quite pleasant. Winds will remain nwly on Sunday, perhaps reaching 10 mph or so during the mid-day hours with best PBL mixing. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...High pressure ridge will be centered over the region still Monday morning, then slide eastward Monday night. Monday should be a nice sunny day with near normal temperatures. On Tuesday return southerly flow will help to bump our temperatures above normal, with highs reaching the 60s areawide, our warmest day for quite some time. From Tuesday night onward GFS and ECMWF not in very much agreement at all, leading to lower confidence in the details. Does look like weather will remain active from mid week onward. Still lots of model disagreement on the phasing of northern and southern stream shortwave troughs. GFS continues to show a much slower solution keeping precipitation over our area through the end of the period. ECMWF clears things out quicker, giving us a couple drier days towards the end of the week. Lots of uncertainty this far out, but overall trend is for temperatures back around normal and active weather for at least Wed. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Ceilings through 12z should be in the 5-8kft range and then clouds will become scattered after 12z and we should see mostly clear skies below 20kft through the remainder of the period. Winds will become light and variable by 06z tonight...then increase from the northwest after 14z but at speeds of 10 knots or less and then become light and variable again overnight. Outlook... Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Deal

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