Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 151731 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Areas of light snow will wane in coverage today and become confined mainly the higher elevations by tonight into Friday. Fair and seasonably cold weather returns by this weekend into Monday of next week as Canadian high pressure settles across the area. Low pressure may bring a returned chance of snow by the middle of next week, but current indications suggest higher impacts from this system will remain largely south of our area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 123 PM EDT Thursday...No significant changes were needed with this update. Light snow continues over portions of the region, especially the northern mountains. Little additional accumulation is expected through the afternoon. Have updated to raise temps just a bit in the Champlain Valley as current obs indicate some spots are near the previously forecasted highs. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Prior discussion... Have dropped all winter headlines with this main package update this morning. Observational data continues to show large-scale cyclonic flow and associated moisture remain atop the region this morning with areas of light snow affecting mainly central and northern counties. Models are consistent in showing the core of the upper gyre will pull east today as the mid level flow backs from north to west- northwesterly over time. As this occurs the areal coverage of light snows will gradually wane and become increasingly confined to the northern high terrain by tonight into Friday. Upslope character of the snowfall will also diminish by this afternoon as deepening boundary layer under stronger March insolation leads to unblocked flow and Froude numbers in excess of 1. Additional accumulations through tonight to range from a dusting to 1 inch in the valley floors, and 1 to 3 inches in elevated terrain with localized higher amounts to near 5 inches possible at summit level. Thus additional impacts from this system will be minor at best. It will also trend a bit breezy today as the boundary layer deepens and fosters gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. High temperatures to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with overnight lows tonight mainly from 15 to 25 under persistent cloud cover.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Thursday...Large upper level trough will continue to remain across the region Friday night and Saturday. With this, northwesterly flow, along with a continuing tight gradient, will remain across the area leading to gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots through late Saturday afternoon. Deep level moisture will be decreasing to the point that even most lingering terrain driven snow showers will come to an end, save NEK which will last through the day Saturday. Temperatures will feel more February-like with Friday night lows in the teens in the valleys and single digits in the higher elevations. Saturday high will be in the teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Thursday...The prolonged snow event of earlier this week will finally be in our rear view mirror. That is the good news. The not so news is that the region continues remains lock in northerly flow into early next week, which will continue to leave us with temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year as we remain on the western edge of a broad upper level trough. Past this point, models disagree, with the 00Z GFS developing another coastal low and taking it out into the Atlantic, with just some potential snow showers across our southern counties Tuesday night into Wednesday, while the ECMWF is a bit slower and keeps the low closer to the coast along with a second low that drops down across the Great Lakes region from Canada, much like the previous Nor`easter, potentially setting up Nor`easter 4: March is the New January. Joking aside, this is another system that bears monitoring as it could bring another potentially significant snow event late next week. Look for highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows in the teens to 20s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 18Z Friday...Conditions generally a mix of MVFR/VFR as coverage of light snows/snow showers wane through the afternoon, holding on longest at KMPV/KSLK terminals. Winds remain west/northwesterly and trend gusty from 15 to 22 kts this afternoon before abating after 00Z. After 00Z mainly VFR though some lingering MVFR or brief IFR still possible at KSLK with flurries. MVFR ceilings will return to some sites late tonight, after 09z, but no visibility restrictions are anticipated. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
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&& .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Hastings/JMG SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Hastings/JMG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.