Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000 FXUS61 KBTV 190714 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 314 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent northwesterly flow will keep unseasonably cold and dry weather over the North Country through midweek. A coastal low will strengthen Wednesday as it moves from the Carolina Coast northeastward. The brunt of the impacts with this system still look to be to our south and east, however can`t rule out some precipitation over areas of Vermont Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 314 AM EDT Monday...High pressure will build across the North Country, keeping conditions cool and dry. A couple of shortwaves will traverse through the northwest flow aloft, but given the very dry airmass in place, don`t expect much out of these other than some scattered clouds. Highs today will be similar to yesterday, ranging from the upper teens in the Northeast Kingdom to the upper 20s in the wider valleys. Tonight will be chilly once again as most places bottom out in the single digits. Tuesday will see some improvement in temperatures and the core of the cold air begins to lift north and east. Temperatures will top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Tuesday && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 342 PM EDT Sunday...Temps will continue to be forecast challenge during this time period as dry northwest flow aloft prevails. Given position of mid/upper level trof axis directly overhead and timing of short energy...thinking this will help deflect moisture/qpf from reaching our southern cwa on Tuesday night. Fast confluent flow aloft continues over the mid Atlantic States as gradient strengthens between high pres over central Canada and low pres across eastern NC. This combined with some high clouds and approaching s/w energy in flow aloft will make for a challenging temp forecast. Progged 850mb temps warm between -10c and -12c by 18z Tuesday...with full sun and some mixing will support large difference in temps from valleys to summits. Have mentions temps from mid/upper teens summits to lower/mid 30s warmer valleys. Tue night...expect the exact opposite to occur with coolest readings in the deeper/protected valley as shallow but sharp low level thermal inversions develop, especially with snow pack. Have temps from -5f slk/nek valleys to mid teens midslope elevations. No precip/snow expected in this time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 342 PM EDT Sunday...Little overall change from previous several mid/upper level trof continues across the eastern conus. Still watching system along the mid Atlantic seaboard from mid week...but thinking northern stream energy approaching the international border around 12z Weds will help to deflect moisture/qpf to our south initially. However...with an upstream block still lingering have noticed in latest 12z Euro and 00z GEM runs some late system phasing to occur. This helps system become vertically stacked across northern Maine/Eastern Canada by 12z Thursday with some backside moisture sneaking into our northern/eastern cwa. The 12z Euro is most aggressive with showing favorable mid level moisture profiles...along with upslope flow and embedded 5h vort impacting our zones. Given the recent performance don`t want to completely not account for latest trends in have bumped pops into the chc range from northern VT mountains...NEK...and western slopes from Weds Night thru Thursday. 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles show values btwn -5c to -9c during this time frame...which is cold enough for snow...with some mix in the deeper valleys during the daytime heating. Still even with the latest euro qpf/snowfall will be light...but any additional shifts east or west will need to be watched closely. Temps mainly 30s valleys and 20s mountains with lows mid teens to mid 20s. Weak high pres builds into the area late Friday into Saturday with dry weather and slightly below normal temps. Progged 850mb temps between -8c and -10c support highs mid 20s to mid 30s with a few warmer valleys near 40f on Saturday. Lots of uncertainty of next system on Sunday into early the following upstream blocking prevails. Moisture/energy and warmer air will try surging northeast toward our cwa from the central Plains...while additional northern stream energy and colder air is dropping southeast over the ne CONUS. A period of unsettled and cool weather is possible...especially as we start the new week. Temps will remain on the cool side with mid/upper level trof in place. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure building into the region will keep dry conditions over the area and little in the way of any cloud cover. Winds will generally be under 10 knots with a direction from the north and northwest. Outlook... Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hastings NEAR TERM...Hastings SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.