Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 021447 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 947 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered snow showers will persist southeast of the lakes this morning as arctic air continues to spill into the region. High pressure passing by to our south will bring the snow showers to an end by this afternoon. A brief warm up is expected Wednesday before colder air returns for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Colder air within a northwest flow will maintain scattered snow showers southeast of the lakes late this morning. This activity will end by afternoon as high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley passes by to our south. A warm front will move through the area tonight with some light snow possible east of Lake Ontario. Southwest winds will pickup with gusts to near 45 mph possible downwind of Lake Erie. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A surface low will be tracking across southern Canada to open this period, with snow east of Lake Ontario, especially on the upslope Tug Hill. Aloft, blocking upstream over Greenland will force an upper level low to send it`s cold airmass back across our region, with snow forming on the leading edge of the cold air returning. While a little rain may mix in south of Lake Ontario Wednesday late afternoon and early evening, the progressively colder airmass will support snow...with lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario through Thursday morning. Lacking deep moisture, snowfall accumulations will range up to an inch or two. Surface high pressure over western Ontario Canada will begin to push a drier airmass across our region Thursday afternoon and night...with skies clearing. Behind a cold front, Thursday will be some 10 degrees colder, with Thursday night lows dropping into the teens...and low single digits east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... This period will start cold with an upper level closed low remaining to the north of New England. A shortwave within this upper level low will bring some limited moisture to an otherwise dry airmass Friday night and Saturday that could touch off a few snow showers. Accumulations appear to be minor at this point in time as again deeper moisture will be lacking. This upper level low will begin to weaken through the weekend, with an upstream ridge slowly pushing eastward towards our region. The 00Z ECMWF is coming into agreement with the past GFS model runs, with the advancement of the ridge of high pressure on Monday. With the surface high upon us Monday morning...it would be a chilly start, but with the high shifting eastward, and a southerly return flow ensues, afternoon temperatures could climb to well above normal levels. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes late this morning, but will end by midday. Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue through the morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon. High pressure sliding just south of the area will then provide VFR conditions into tonight. Northwest winds will lessen a bit, but still gust to 20 to 25 knots today. Winds will become southwest tonight and could gust to over 35 knots downwind of Lake Erie if mixing is maximized. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers. && .MARINE... Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots on the eastern half of Lake Ontario will continue to support small craft advisory conditions. Otherwise...a brief lull in wind strength will be experienced on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario through this afternoon as the center of high pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley. Low pressure will then be quick to drop into the northern Lakes and the resultant gradient will bring an uptick in southwest winds across the Lower Great Lakes tonight which will likely bring a period of higher end small craft advisory conditions before winds subside later Wednesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA

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