National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 021447
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
947 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will persist southeast of the lakes this
morning as arctic air continues to spill into the region. High
pressure passing by to our south will bring the snow showers to
an end by this afternoon. A brief warm up is expected Wednesday
before colder air returns for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Colder air within a northwest flow will maintain scattered snow
showers southeast of the lakes late this morning. This activity
will end by afternoon as high pressure centered over the Ohio
Valley passes by to our south.

A warm front will move through the area tonight with some light
snow possible east of Lake Ontario. Southwest winds will pickup
with gusts to near 45 mph possible downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A surface low will be tracking across southern Canada to open this
period, with snow east of Lake Ontario, especially on the upslope
Tug Hill. Aloft, blocking upstream over Greenland will force an
upper level low to send it`s cold airmass back across our region,
with snow forming on the leading edge of the cold air returning.

While a little rain may mix in south of Lake Ontario Wednesday late
afternoon and early evening, the progressively colder airmass will
support snow...with lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario
through Thursday morning.

Lacking deep moisture, snowfall accumulations will range up to an
inch or two.

Surface high pressure over western Ontario Canada will begin to
push a drier airmass across our region Thursday afternoon and
night...with skies clearing. Behind a cold front, Thursday will
be some 10 degrees colder, with Thursday night lows dropping
into the teens...and low single digits east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will start cold with an upper level closed low remaining
to the north of New England. A shortwave within this upper level low
will bring some limited moisture to an otherwise dry airmass Friday
night and Saturday that could touch off a few snow showers.
Accumulations appear to be minor at this point in time as again
deeper moisture will be lacking.

This upper level low will begin to weaken through the weekend, with
an upstream ridge slowly pushing eastward towards our region.

The 00Z ECMWF is coming into agreement with the past GFS model runs,
with the advancement of the ridge of high pressure on Monday. With
the surface high upon us Monday morning...it would be a chilly
start, but with the high shifting eastward, and a southerly return
flow ensues, afternoon temperatures could climb to well above normal
levels.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes late
this morning, but will end by midday. Areas of MVFR CIGS will
continue through the morning before improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

High pressure sliding just south of the area will then provide VFR
conditions into tonight.

Northwest winds will lessen a bit, but still gust to 20 to 25
knots today. Winds will become southwest tonight and could gust
to over 35 knots downwind of Lake Erie if mixing is maximized.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots on the eastern half of Lake
Ontario will continue to support small craft advisory conditions.
Otherwise...a brief lull in wind strength will be experienced on
Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario through this afternoon as
the center of high pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley.

Low pressure will then be quick to drop into the northern Lakes
and the resultant gradient will bring an uptick in southwest
winds across the Lower Great Lakes tonight which will likely
bring a period of higher end small craft advisory conditions
before winds subside later Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA