-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
563
FXUS61 KBUF 170945
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
545 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds will continue this morning.

2) Winter-like conditions will continue through tonight, bringing
cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area.

3) A few systems will bring periodic chances for some rain/snow
later this week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds will continue this morning.

An upper level trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region today. A broad area of 40-50 knots within a well-mixed
boundary layer will support gusty winds across the region this
morning. Wind gusts of 40-50 knots will peak across the region
through daybreak. The highest gusts will be northeast of Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario as well as along the lakeshores. Winds aloft will
weaken through today and wind gusts will drop off by this evening. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area through 11AM
this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Winter-like conditions will continue through
tonight, bringing cold air and lake effect snow showers to the area.

A strong area of low pressure continues to move northeast across
Quebec this morning. Cold air continues to wrap around the
backside of the low and moist, westerly flow with 850mb
temperatures falling through the minus teens this morning will
support convective snow showers across the region today, and
lake effect snow continuing through tonight.

Temperatures will only rebound into the low to mid 20s, with
wind chills around zero today. Low temperatures will fall to the
single digits to low teens tonight. Fresh snow and good radiational
cooling may result in low temperatures near zero or below
across the northern Tug Hill region tonight.

High temperatures will reach the low to mid 20s today, with lows

Off Lake Ontario...

A southwesterly flow in the boundary layer and lake induced
equilibrium levels rising to 7-9k feet will support a band of
lake effect snow across the Saint Lawrence Valley through mid-
morning. The flow will veer through the day and the band will
settle across the Tug Hill region before reaching northern
Cayuga and southern Oswego county by evening. Snowfall rates may
reach 2+ inches per hour at times. The high March sun angle may
disrupt band organization during the midday through early
evening hours as strong diurnal mixing interferes with the
convergence structures supporting the band.

The lake band is expected to intensify across northern Cayuga and
southern Oswego county tonight, before weakening towards Wednesday
morning. Snowfall rates may again reach 2+ inches per hour in the
most intense band.

Additional snow accumulations of 6-10" across the Tug Hill Plateau
and also across central/southern Oswego County and far northern
Cayuga County through tonight. The rest of the area east of Lake
Ontario will see 2-5" from a combination of synoptic snow early this
morning and then lake effect snow thereafter. A Lake Effect Snow
Warning remains in effect.

Off Lake Erie...

A westerly flow will focus lake effect snow across the western
Southern Tier this morning. Surface high pressure across the Gulf
Coast states will nose northward into the Ohio Valley and snow will
become weak and diminish by this evening. Additional snow
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is expected today, with the highest
amounts across southwest Chautauqua County. A Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect through 8PM today.

Winds will remain gusty today, with blowing and drifting snow in
lake effect areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A few systems will bring periodic chances for some
rain/snow later this week and weekend.

Later this week and during the upcoming weekend a broad...but
gradually flattening upper level ridge will remain in place over the
Desert Southwest...while a broad/low amplitude upper level trough
will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Between Thursday
and Saturday a few weak/progressive shortwave disturbances and
associated surface lows will ripple through the base of the larger-
scale mean trough and bring periodic chances for some light
precipitation to our region. With respect to ptype...marginal
thermal profiles should support more of a a rain/snow mix
initially...with snow more common at night/across the higher
terrain and rain more common by day/across the lower elevations.

By later in the weekend a somewhat stronger surface low may enter
our region. Depending upon its eventual track and strength (both of
which remain in question at this vantage point)...this could bring
either a rain/snow mix or predominantly rain on its front side...
followed by a return to seasonably colder air and a few snow showers
early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A moist, cyclonic flow will support convective snow showers
through tonight. A mix of flight conditions is expected in snow
showers this morning. Coverage will eventually become focused
east of the Lakes, mainly across the western southern Tier east
of Lake Erie and across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Diurnal mixing and instability will support an uptick in convective
showers and possibly bands from upstream connections today.
Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected, however IFR or below is
expected in snow showers.

Lake effect snow showers will weaken east of Lake Erie tonight,
however MVFR ceilings will likely persist at KJHW. A lake effect
band will be focused southeast of Lake Ontario tonight, and should
be between KROC and KART tonight. VFR conditions are expected
outside of lake effect clouds and snow showers.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with a few rain or snow showers.

Friday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for rain showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A strong southwest-west wind will continue on the Lakes this
morning. Gale force is expected to continue through this morning,
with gale force lingering through this afternoon across the eastern
end of Lake Ontario.

Winds will diminish through mid-week bringing a period of light
winds and small waves. Ice on Lake Erie has retracted to now just
along the Erie county shoreline.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ005-
     006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ019-
     020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK