Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 222350 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 750 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will track into northern New England tonight with a few lingering showers and areas of fog tonight. High pressure will bring a period of dry weather Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon high temperatures in the 70s midweek will steadily increase to the lower 80s for the start of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak low pressure across northern New York will track into northern New England tonight. There will be a few lingering showers along a frontal boundary associated with this low, however this front will push into central New York this evening with radar showing the bulk of these showers already south and east of the cwa. Early this evening, there are areas of fog across portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. This fog is light across the vast majority of the area, but webcams show locally dense fog near and south of downtown Buffalo along the immediate Lake Erie shoreline. This fog should expand inland a bit with nightfall, and also may spread east of Lake Ontario. Another concern for later tonight is that if skies clear out as high pressure builds in, this would quickly be followed by fairly dense radiation fog. In each case, forecast confidence is too low to issue a dense fog advisory since there may simply be a low stratus deck which never reaches the ground. The current fog is perhaps best captured by the HRRR guidance which suggests fog will expand considerably inland overnight. This will largely depend on if clouds scatter out or not. High pressure will ridge into the lower Great Lakes late tonight, with drier air gradually building into the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure will expand across the region on Wednesday. There will be some lingering stratus and fog in the morning, but this should gradually dissipate by afternoon. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s, except slightly cooler along the immediate lakeshore. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The weather will be absolutely spectacular across the region for the over whelming majority of this a negatively tilted ridge within a split flow will track across the Great Lakes region. The ridge will deamplify with time though...and this will end up placing our region between a slow moving back door cold front to the north and the fringes of a large shield of tropical moisture to our south. As we start the weekend...this will eventually bring an end to the fine stretch of weather with showers and thunderstorms entering the picture. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Better agreement among Guidance packages with suppressing the deeper subtropical moisture well south of the Lower Great Lakes. Over the course of the Memorial day weekend look for temperatures to nudge upwards (U70s-L80s)along with humidity levels as deep southerly flow will transport some of the available subtropical moisture to our south into our region. For now, it looks like just increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday as the northern upstream shortwave trough over Quebec Canada influences the Lower Great Lakes. Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will cross the region as the shortwave passes by to our north through Ontario Canada with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather with less humidity returns late Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds at the surface and aloft over New York State. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The main concern for aviation is areas of low stratus and the potential for dense fog. A southwesterly flow will mix moist boundary layer air with the relatively cool lake waters resulting in low stratus and fog northeast of the lakes which will impact BUF/ART and to a lesser extent IAG. Expect mainly IFR or lower conditions at these sites until after 06Z tonight when winds shift to the northwest and advects slightly drier air. There is a potential for dense fog if ceilings lower to the ground, with low forecast confidence at these locations. Otherwise, expect mainly MVFR conditions at ROC until skies scattered and radiation fog develops later tonight. Expect mainly IFR or lower conditions at JHW with lots of low moisture trapped in a northwesterly flow behind a weak cold front. Low moisture will gradually mix out Wednesday morning with widespread VFR flight conditions by the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers. Sunday...MVFR. Showers likely. && .MARINE... Winds will not be very strong, however there will be areas of fog due to the warm moist air across the relatively cool lake waters. Surface high pressure will near the region Wednesday, passing over the Eastern Great Lakes Thursday, before shifting towards the Southeast states on Friday. This will maintain light winds and minimal waves through the end of the week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel NEAR TERM...Apffel SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Apffel MARINE...Apffel is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.