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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 030550
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1250 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy overnight with snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Snow
showers will continue east of Lake Ontario Wednesday with a few
inches possible on the Tug Hill Plateau overnight through
Wednesday. A brief warm up is expected Wednesday before colder
air returns for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A warm front will move across southern Ontario, with mid-level
warm air advect extending into the eastern Lake Ontario region
as this front passes by late this evening. This will result in
clouds, and some light snow across the St. Lawrence Valley. A
strong westerly 50-60 kt low level jet will move across the
region behind this front overnight. Southwest winds at the
surface will also increase with surface temperatures rising
overnight. Stable conditions under warm air advection should
keep the strongest winds elevated however it will still get
breezy overnight with the strongest winds from Lake Erie
northeast across the Niagara Frontier to the City of Rochester.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph with peak gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible.
Lesser winds south and east of this region.

Moisture will be confined to the warm front with light snow moving
into the northern Tug Hill region this evening. There should be a
break as the snow moves east before snow moves back across the
entire Tug Hill region as an approaching shortwave trough and
surface trough move south from the Ottawa Valley. Minor
accumulations expected with 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill
into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will continue to increase Wednesday with daytime highs
reaching the upper 30s to low 40s and the low 30s on the Tug Hill.
Weather will remain quiet across Western NY Wednesday morning with
increasing clouds. As the surface trough nears Lake Ontario, forcing
and an increase in moisture will increase the chance for rain and
snow showers across Western NY Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying ridge over the western Conus will encourage a
sharpening longwave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern
U.S. during this period. This will support temps that will be
solidly below normal...especially during the day.

The only real weather this period will be the passage of an arctic
front Wednesday night. This will generate some snow showers
throughout the region to open this period while setting the stage
for nuisance lake snow showers in the ensuing periods.

Given H85 temps that will average in the minus teens c...the
northwest flow Thursday through Friday night will support some
nuisance lake snow showers...mainly southeast of Lk Ontario.
Otherwise...mainly fair weather can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern will become progressive during this period with
the western ridge sliding east. This will allow for Pacific modified
air to flood the country...which eventually will lead to a
PRONOUNCED warm up for our region at the end of this forecast
period...and particularly the second half of next week. The mercury
will climb well into the 50s across the western counties by
Tuesday with 60s possible just outside of the scope of this package.

The warm up will be accompanied by mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will pass by to the north with clouds and some
light snow clipping the eastern Lake Ontario region late this
evening. A strong 50-60kt low-level jet will move across the region
overnight. These strong winds will remain elevated, resulting in a
brief period with LLWS at some locations. Winds aloft will mix
better late tonight and early Wednesday morning, with increasing
winds and wind gusts.

Light snow will move into the Eastern Lake Ontario region late
tonight and vsby restrictions are possible at KART into Wednesday
morning. Snow will then be confined to the higher terrain east of
Lake Ontario most of the daytime Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions
expected across Western NY Wednesday morning with ceilings falling
to MVFR during day.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR. Snow showers likely across Western
NY.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will then be quick to drop into the northern Lakes
and the resultant gradient will bring an uptick in southwest
winds across the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Small craft
advisory conditions expected across the eastern end of Lake Erie
and the Upper Niagara River and western Lake Ontario. A period
of higher end small craft advisory conditions is likely for the
rest of Lake Ontario later tonight until winds subside later
Wednesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/TMA