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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 291439
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1039 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cool front will cross the region late today and this evening.
While there will be a noticeable increase in clouds as we push
through the day...limited moisture will only support a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms near and east of Lake Ontario. Shallow
cool air immediately in the wake of the front will then quickly give
way to pronounced day to day warming Thursday and Friday. A slow
passing cold front will then produce widespread showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and early Saturday. The remainder of the
Fourth of July weekend will be dry and comfortable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface based high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic region
will keep fair weather in place today for the majority of the
region, although there will be an increase in clouds as we push
through the day. The added cloud cover will come as a result of a
weak cold front that will approach from southern Ontario. Given the
lack of deep moisture with the front and general lack of significant
forcing, only a chance showers is expected near and east of Lake
Ontario during the day.

Timing has been sped up a little, but QPF is still mostly in the T-
0.05 range, leaning closer to the "T". Despite the appearance on
radar earlier this morning, much of the approaching precipitation
(with possible perceived observational bias due to bright banding)
should continue to weaken as it moves into WNY.

Skies will then clear overnight as the weak front will push east and
mid level ridging builds across the Lower Great Lakes.

A low amplitude mid level ridge and its associated surface refection
will pass over the region on Thursday. This will guarantee another
nice day to be outdoors, albeit it several degrees warmer than
recent days. In fact, it will be the first time most areas crack the
80 degree mark in four days. H85 temps are forecast to reach into
the mid teens, and with full mixing a continued dry antecedent soil
conditions, we can fully expect most of western New York to finally
return to the mid 80s. It will be cooler near the lake shores and
also across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A closed mid-level low over the northern portions of the Manitoba
province Thursday night will gradually slide east-southeast into the
James Bay by Friday night and send a cold front across the Great
Lakes toward New York State. While the low and associated troughing
pattern is still to the west of the lower Great Lakes Thursday night
through Friday, the warm air advection pattern will continue
supporting lows Thursday night to range in the 60s with some
locations reading near 70s across the far northwestern portions of
the region. Summer warmth will continue on into Friday with highs
soaring up into the upper 80s to low 90s. However, sultry conditions
should be limited as dewpoint temperatures look to struggle to push
into the 60s and a fresh southwest breeze will set up ahead of the
cold front.

Otherwise aside from the heat, chances for showers and some
scattered afternoon thunderstorms will increase from northwest to
southeast late Friday afternoon into Friday night as a shortwave
trough trudges across southern Ontario Canada ahead of the
aforementioned front. Then as the night progresses Friday night and
the front encroaches toward the region, expect more widespread
showers and some embedded thunderstorms to arrive to the region.
Additionally, moderate to heavy rain can`t be ruled out Friday night
as an abundance of moisture is advected northward into the region
from the Gulf of Mexico.

Rain and storms from Friday night will continue to push from
northwest to southeast Saturday allowing for conditions to approve
in the wake of the frontal passage. By Saturday afternoon, much of
the Niagara Frontier and North Country should be drying out. Also,
the frontal passage will support a cooler air mass to usher into the
region and allow more seasonable temperatures of highs in the upper
70s to low 80s to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Closed mid-level low over the James Bay Saturday will advance east
toward the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday, supporting a quasi-zonal
pattern to emerge across much of the Great Lakes and a large area of
high pressure to track east into the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Introduction of the surface high and its associated dry air
will continue to help to diminish showers south of the New York
State Thruway from north to south Saturday evening. Then, expect dry
conditions to last throughout the day and night Sunday with the
surface high overhead.

A shortwave trough will rotate through the zonal pattern aloft
Sunday night through Independence Day, pushing the large area of
surface high pressure towards the Atlantic coastline Monday. This
will likely support a cold front to track across the central Great
Lakes, while also supporting the return of humid conditions across
the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. This being said,
chances for showers and storms will also increase Monday afternoon
into Tuesday.

Temperatures will be near normal Saturday night through Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions with light winds will persist through the Thursday
morning, although an increase in clouds will result in widespread
VFR cigs north of the Southern Tier this afternoon. These cigs could
produce a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm near or
east of Lake Ontario from mid afternoon into early this evening.

Skies will then clear overnight tonight with winds becoming light.

Outlook...
Thursday through Friday...VFR. Friday Night and Saturday.
Some MVFR with showers or possible TSRA.
Sunday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic region will promote
moderate southwesterlies on Lake Erie today...while a notably weaker
sfc pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cool front will only
support light to gentle breezes on Lake Ontario. In both cases...
negligible wave action can be expected.

General high pressure over the region on Thursday will only allow
for gentle to occasionally moderate breezes...but winds will freshen
ahead of a stronger cold front as we progress through Thursday night
and Friday. While moderate to fresh southwesterlies by midday Friday
may produce some choppy water on the northeast ends of both lakes...
small craft advisories are not anticipated. However...thunderstorms
will become possible late in the day and especially Friday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/Zaff
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH