Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 291439 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cool front will cross the region late today and this evening. While there will be a noticeable increase in clouds as we push through the moisture will only support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms near and east of Lake Ontario. Shallow cool air immediately in the wake of the front will then quickly give way to pronounced day to day warming Thursday and Friday. A slow passing cold front will then produce widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday night and early Saturday. The remainder of the Fourth of July weekend will be dry and comfortable. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface based high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic region will keep fair weather in place today for the majority of the region, although there will be an increase in clouds as we push through the day. The added cloud cover will come as a result of a weak cold front that will approach from southern Ontario. Given the lack of deep moisture with the front and general lack of significant forcing, only a chance showers is expected near and east of Lake Ontario during the day. Timing has been sped up a little, but QPF is still mostly in the T- 0.05 range, leaning closer to the "T". Despite the appearance on radar earlier this morning, much of the approaching precipitation (with possible perceived observational bias due to bright banding) should continue to weaken as it moves into WNY. Skies will then clear overnight as the weak front will push east and mid level ridging builds across the Lower Great Lakes. A low amplitude mid level ridge and its associated surface refection will pass over the region on Thursday. This will guarantee another nice day to be outdoors, albeit it several degrees warmer than recent days. In fact, it will be the first time most areas crack the 80 degree mark in four days. H85 temps are forecast to reach into the mid teens, and with full mixing a continued dry antecedent soil conditions, we can fully expect most of western New York to finally return to the mid 80s. It will be cooler near the lake shores and also across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A closed mid-level low over the northern portions of the Manitoba province Thursday night will gradually slide east-southeast into the James Bay by Friday night and send a cold front across the Great Lakes toward New York State. While the low and associated troughing pattern is still to the west of the lower Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday, the warm air advection pattern will continue supporting lows Thursday night to range in the 60s with some locations reading near 70s across the far northwestern portions of the region. Summer warmth will continue on into Friday with highs soaring up into the upper 80s to low 90s. However, sultry conditions should be limited as dewpoint temperatures look to struggle to push into the 60s and a fresh southwest breeze will set up ahead of the cold front. Otherwise aside from the heat, chances for showers and some scattered afternoon thunderstorms will increase from northwest to southeast late Friday afternoon into Friday night as a shortwave trough trudges across southern Ontario Canada ahead of the aforementioned front. Then as the night progresses Friday night and the front encroaches toward the region, expect more widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms to arrive to the region. Additionally, moderate to heavy rain can`t be ruled out Friday night as an abundance of moisture is advected northward into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Rain and storms from Friday night will continue to push from northwest to southeast Saturday allowing for conditions to approve in the wake of the frontal passage. By Saturday afternoon, much of the Niagara Frontier and North Country should be drying out. Also, the frontal passage will support a cooler air mass to usher into the region and allow more seasonable temperatures of highs in the upper 70s to low 80s to occur. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Closed mid-level low over the James Bay Saturday will advance east toward the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday, supporting a quasi-zonal pattern to emerge across much of the Great Lakes and a large area of high pressure to track east into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Introduction of the surface high and its associated dry air will continue to help to diminish showers south of the New York State Thruway from north to south Saturday evening. Then, expect dry conditions to last throughout the day and night Sunday with the surface high overhead. A shortwave trough will rotate through the zonal pattern aloft Sunday night through Independence Day, pushing the large area of surface high pressure towards the Atlantic coastline Monday. This will likely support a cold front to track across the central Great Lakes, while also supporting the return of humid conditions across the eastern Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. This being said, chances for showers and storms will also increase Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal Saturday night through Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions with light winds will persist through the Thursday morning, although an increase in clouds will result in widespread VFR cigs north of the Southern Tier this afternoon. These cigs could produce a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm near or east of Lake Ontario from mid afternoon into early this evening. Skies will then clear overnight tonight with winds becoming light. Outlook... Thursday through Friday...VFR. Friday Night and Saturday. Some MVFR with showers or possible TSRA. Sunday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic region will promote moderate southwesterlies on Lake Erie today...while a notably weaker sfc pressure gradient ahead of an approaching cool front will only support light to gentle breezes on Lake Ontario. In both cases... negligible wave action can be expected. General high pressure over the region on Thursday will only allow for gentle to occasionally moderate breezes...but winds will freshen ahead of a stronger cold front as we progress through Thursday night and Friday. While moderate to fresh southwesterlies by midday Friday may produce some choppy water on the northeast ends of both lakes... small craft advisories are not anticipated. However...thunderstorms will become possible late in the day and especially Friday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH/Zaff SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.