National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 111244
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
844 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will cool through mid week, before a warming trend
starts to end the week and into the weekend. There may be a few
showers at times this week, but for the most part the majority of
the time will be rain free.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Water vapor loop this morning showing a more elongated upper low
across the northern Great Lakes rotating toward the south. This
trend will continue through the day as the mid level circulation
center moves across the eastern Great Lakes. Moisture quality does
not look overly impressive, but expect lapse rates will steepen
during diurnal heating cycle, as leading edge of colder air
aloft approaches with 500 mb temperatures nearing -30C triggers
at least some scattered showers. This should especially be the
case from the Niagara Frontier over to around Rochester as a
lake breeze boundary sets up, perhaps even producing some small
hail.

The resident airmass across the region remains unseasonably chilly.
The approach of the upper trough will enhance the ongoing advection
of cold air into western and north central New York (850 mb
temperatures approaching -4C). Temperatures today likely only
getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s. A tightening pressure
gradient will bring gusty westerly winds adding a bit of an
unpleasant wind chill for this time of year.

Scattered showers may linger across eastern portions of the area
tonight as the upper trough axis swings through. Temperatures
tonight should have no problem lowering into the 30s. Some cloud
cover, along with still some graident wind should keep the
potential for any frost limited to the deeper sheltered valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough remains across the Northeast and eastern Great
Lakes region Wednesday. Daytime heating with cool temperatures aloft
will result some showers developing in the afternoon. Best chance
will be east of Lake Ontario where more moisture exists. A northerly
wind will continue Wednesday however warmer temperatures expected
with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, low to mid 50s across the
higher terrain.

High pressure will be situated across the Mid-West into Wednesday
night. Some mid-level clouds and light westerly winds are expected.
There is a chance for patchy frost mainly across the higher terrain
as temperatures will fall to the mid 30s. Temperatures will be
warmer across the lower elevations with lows in the upper 30s to
around 40.

An upper level ridge builds into the region Thursday with high
pressure at the surface. Dry weather expected with high temperatures
reaching the mid 60s. Dry weather expected Thursday night with lows
in the low to mid 40s, upper 30s across higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slow warming trend is likely Friday through Monday as high
pressure resides across the region for most of the weekend. High
temperatures will likely reach near normal (mid/upper 60s at
BUF/ROC/ART) temperatures. Mostly dry weather expected through the
weekend however afternoon showers are possible Friday and Saturday
as a mid-level trough passes across the area.

A storm system may impact the region Sunday night into Monday and
showers and thunderstorms are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR weather will persist today. Showers will be possible during
the midday and afternoon mainly from KBUF to near KROC. Surface
winds will increase and could gusts as high as 30 kts.

Tonight, mostly VFR conditions expected, but some high end MVFR
CIGS will be possible, especially across the higher terrain as
a cold front passes through the area. Some showers will be
possible, with the greatest chance for showers from KROC
eastward.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level low will drive a cold front across the Lower Great
Lakes today. Westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots at times will generate
waves over 4 feet on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small craft
headlines are in effect for both lakes as outlined below.

The relatively strong winds will remain in place tonight as a cold
front moves through the region...then winds and waves will subside
on Wednesday as high pressure will start to build into the region.

A large surface high will move across the Lower Great Lakes Thursday
and Friday...and this will support a period of gentle to
occasionally moderate winds and negligible waves.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for
         LOZ042>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         SLZ022-024.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA