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000
FXUS61 KBUF 052143
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
543 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A few more showers are possible tonight downwind of eastern Lake
Ontario. Otherwise, high pressure will bring dry weather through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper low over Ontario and Quebec deamplifies into Thursday but it
stays seasonably cool aloft with H85 temps around +8C. Given water
temps on Lake Erie of 77F (25C) and 70F (21C) on Lake Ontario, over-
water instability is sufficient enough for a lake response but
mainly if supplemented by additional moisture. Best chance for a few
showers will be on east end of Lake Ontario tonight into Thursday
morning. Some hint that could see at least isolated showers into nw
Niagara Peninsula off of western Lake Ontario as well. Though mainly
a marine issue, a heads up that given the over-water instability
present, any shower or even just an area of enhanced clouds along a
convergence zone will have potential to produce waterspouts into
Thursday morning.

Dry otherwise tonight into Thursday as high pressure over the Ohio
Valley builds our way. Lows tonight will be as cool as they have
been for a while with readings falling into the upper 40s over the
Southern Tier and in the 50s elsewhere. Highs on Thursday warmer
than today, but still on the cooler side of normal, with mid to
upper 70s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue into Thursday night. A upper level low
will track across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday. Moisture
from a system moving across Virginia will enter western NY Thursday
night into Friday. Clouds will increase into Friday morning while a
few showers are possible across the western Southern Tier through
Friday afternoon. The upper low will move into New England Friday
night and moisture will diminish across the region. Highs Friday
will reach the mid to upper 70s with a few places along the Lake
Plains reaching 80.

High pressure returns Saturday and Saturday night. Daytime heating
will produce surface based instability across the higher terrain
Saturday afternoon. A few showers and storms are possible. Elsewhere
will remain dry. Highs on Saturday will reach the upper 70s to low
80s. Lows Saturday night will fall to the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will slide off the coastline Sunday - Monday
and this will allow for a return to greater low level moisture
(humidity) and warmth. Temperatures at 850 hPa will rise into the
high teens Celsius and this will bring surface temperatures into the
lower 90s across the Lake Plains, and mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
When combined with the increased humidity, apparent temperatures
Monday will rise well into the 90s across the Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region. The nearby surface high pressure and warming
aloft combined with no deep moisture in the mid levels will hold
back on precipitation chances for much of Sunday and Monday.

A cold front will approach the region Tuesday and early Wednesday. A
shortwave will pass by well to our north, but within a prefrontal
trough Tuesday, and then early Wednesday morning as the cold front
passes there will be an increase in showers and thunderstorm
chances. Humidity will lower later Wednesday, though summers warmth
in the 80s will remain.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty winds at ART subside by early evening. Just an outside chance
of a few light showers late tonight at IAG and BUF. Conditions VFR
through the period at all terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty west winds and higher waves on east half of Lake Ontario
into this evening, then winds diminish into Thursday.

Waterspouts remain possible tonight into Thursday morning just about
anywhere there are showers or even just where lines of enhanced
clouds form in low-level convergence zones. Waterspout potential
ends on Thursday afternoon as over-water instability decreases with
warming temps aloft.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JLA
NEAR TERM...JLA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA