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111
FXUS61 KBUF 072342
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Tornado Watch has been cancelled for the Southern Tier
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
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1) A cold front will bring rain showers with gusty winds tonight.

2) Next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday,
before possibly ending as some mixed precipitation or snow.

3) There remains a low-end threat for flooding through next week,
mainly across the North Country, as a result of above normal
temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.
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.DISCUSSION...
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KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring rain showers with gusty
winds tonight.

A cold front will sweep across our region this evening, with rain
showers and still gusty southwest to west winds through the
evening hours. Behind the front showers will end from west to
east...with our region dry by around 12Z Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night
and Wednesday, before possibly ending as some mixed precipitation or
snow.

A dry period expected Sunday through Tuesday with a day to day
warming trend and above normal temperatures for early March. The
next chance for rain/storms arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Current guidance suggesting that a northern stream shortwave may try
to phase with a southern stream closed low locked into the four
corners region. This wave then moves eastward into the region during
the Tuesday night and Wednesday time period. Ensembles are in decent
agreement on this solution and bringing chances for rain and
possible thunderstorms to the region. Deterministic guidance
pointing to strong high pressure over eastern Canada possibly
forcing a backdoor cold front south into the region Wednesday night
and Thursday. This could bring cooler temperatures and a potential
risk for mixed precipitation or snow, but there is a fair amount of
uncertainty among long range ensembles on the depth of the trough
and timing. Majority of GEPS members are slightly slower or less
sharp with the upper level trough compared to EC and GEFS members.
Regardless, most guidance suggests 850mb temps will dip towards -10
to -14 degC by late next week after being above the climatological
90th percentile for the first half of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 3...There remains a low-end threat for flooding through
next week, mainly across the North Country, as a result of above
normal temperatures and multiple rounds of rain.

Above normal temperatures along with long range ensemble guidance
and WPC forecast showing an additional 1-2.5" of QPF across the
eastern Great Lakes over the next 7 days. This pattern will lead to
rises on most area waterways with an increased threat for flooding
as the rainfall combines with accelerated snowmelt runoff.

Based on the limited amount of SWE and antecedent water levels being
low, the threat for flooding should be very limited for the
waterways across western NY. However, numerous creeks are forecast
to crest in Action stage, though are expected to remain below flood
stage this weekend. The few exceptions continue to be the Tonawanda
Creek at Batavia and at Rapids looking to crest at Minor flood stage
Sunday morning and Monday, respectively.

A different story east of Lake Ontario as recent SWE surveys have
measured over 10" of liquid in the snowpack across the Tug Hill.
This could lead minor flooding along the Black River and other
rivers (Beaver, Independence, and Moose) that drain the western
Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau. MMEFS guidance suggests water
levels on the Black River should continue to rise through the
weekend, cresting near the middle of next week. Still some
discrepancy in regards to maximum crest height on the Black River
(Watertown and Boonville), though aside from the typically bullish
NAEFS, there is only a low (15% chance or less) chance to reach
flood stage. While a slow rise to Action stage appears to be the
most likely scenario, will need to continue monitoring trends.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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For the 00Z TAFS a cold front will sweep across our region through
about 09Z with rain showers ending from west to east. Still gusty
winds upon the front...and for when stronger gusts are not mixing
down to the surface there will likely remain LLWS around 1500 feet.

Through the night, as the cold front passes through Buffalo and
Niagara Falls a southwest wind  may advect the marine layer inland,
with ceiling heights and visibilities lowering to IFR. Elsewhere
through the night we could see a few hours of IFR flight conditions
with a cooler airmass over the still saturated ground from recent
rains.

Sunday, areas of low stratus with MVFR and IFR flight conditions
will persist into the morning before improving to mainly VFR by
midday to early afternoon as much drier air advects across our
region. It will become quite windy again from late morning through
afternoon with gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range, strongest northeast
of Lake Erie. As these gusts diminish with the lowering of the
boundary layer height late tomorrow afternoon and evening, another
50 knot low level jet, with a base around 1500 feet will bring
renewed chances for LLWS.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain
showers. Chance of a few isolated thunderstorms. Windy Wednesday
night.

Thursday...Areas of MVFR with snow showers likely. Windy.
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.MARINE...
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Low pressure will move northeast across Quebec this evening, with a
trailing cold front crossing the lower Great Lakes. Moderate to
strong SSW winds will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions on
Lake Ontario and Lake Erie through much of tonight. There will be a
brief period of somewhat lower winds late tonight and early Sunday
morning before southwest winds increase again Sunday bringing small
craft advisory conditions back to all waters. A similar trend will
occur Monday, with a brief early morning lull in winds before
southwest winds increase again through the daytime. Winds will
diminish Monday night through Tuesday.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters
continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the
forecast.
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.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for
         LOZ042-043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LOZ044-045.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brothers/PP/Thomas/TMA
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Hitchcock/Thomas