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388
FXUS61 KBUF 152234
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
634 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will maintain clear skies tonight. Heat and
humidity will build Wednesday and Thursday and it will also turn
more unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms at times
with very uneven coverage. A few storms may produce localized gusty
winds and heavy rainfall, while some areas receive little or no rain
given the scattered nature of the storms. Dry, cooler, and much less
humid air will move into the area Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure will drift to our east tonight while continuing to
provide dry weather and mainly clear skies. It will be a warm night
with lows ranging from the 60s across the interior Southern Tier and
North Country to the lower 70s across the lake plains.

Heat and humidity build Wednesday. Temperatures along the Lake
Ontario plain, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes around
90F or bit higher, combined with increased humidity should get
maximum heat indices into the mid to possibly upper 90s. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for these areas. Shortwave advancing
into the region will increase the potential for convection,
especially during peak heating. Severe threat looks to be
limited in an unfavorable shear environment, with the main
threat being the potential for locally heavy rainfall with
precipitable water values nearing 2 inches.

Rainfall will be very uneven Wednesday afternoon, with some areas
remaining completely dry. The greatest coverage of rain will likely
be from the western Southern Tier into the Genesee Valley and Finger
Lakes along the southeastern edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze. A
lower chance of rain will be found northeast of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario where stable lake shadows will inhibit deep moist
convection.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Convection lingering into Wednesday night, but coverage should
lessen through the night. It will be muggy with most overnight
temperatures remaining in the 70s.

Cold front advances into the region Thursday. Another round
convection expected, especially during the afternoon/evening.
Main threat looks to be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
in a very moist environment ahead of the front. Front shifts
southeast of the area Thursday night, lessening chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Friday should be quite a bit cooler with comfortable humidity
levels. Some morning cloud cover possible, but overall should
have a good amount of sunshine. Temperatures should be some
10-15 degree cooler with highs mainly in the 70s. High pressure
builds overhead Friday night with clear skies and lows in the
50s, with lower 60s closer to the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure overhead Saturday is advertised to gradually
exits off to our east but will continue to provide dry weather
across the Lower Lakes. Zonal flow aloft will then direct the next
shortwave east towards the Lower Lakes on Sunday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the
start the new work week promoting largely dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mainly clear skies and VFR will prevail overnight through Wednesday
morning. A few areas may see some minor MVFR VSBY in haze, but
increasing southerly flow just off the deck should prevent any
meaningful fog formation.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon
with diurnal heating, and as a mid level shortwave approaches and
increases large scale ascent. The greatest chance of rain and
thunder will likely be from the western Southern Tier into the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes (KJHW, KROC) along the southeastern
edge of the Lake Erie lake breeze. The relative lowest chance of
rain and thunder will be northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
(KBUF, KIAG, KART) where stable lake shadows will inhibit storms.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Local/brief restrictions with
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR possible in fog each
late night and early morning.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms and
associated brief restrictions.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Quiet conditions will continue across the lower Great Lakes through
tonight with light/variable winds.

A modest southerly flow will then develop following the passage of a
warm front Wednesday, but wind speeds should remain at or below 10
knots. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, with
locally higher winds and waves possible near storms.

A cold front will approach the area Thursday, then cross the eastern
Great Lakes Thursday night and early Friday. Southwest winds will
increase ahead of the cold front Thursday, then become northwest
following the passage of the front Thursday night and Friday. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are likely on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Thursday through Thursday night.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>007-
     010>012-019-020-085.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ001>007-
     013-014.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ008-013-
     014-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA