Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 111244 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 844 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will cool through mid week, before a warming trend starts to end the week and into the weekend. There may be a few showers at times this week, but for the most part the majority of the time will be rain free. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Water vapor loop this morning showing a more elongated upper low across the northern Great Lakes rotating toward the south. This trend will continue through the day as the mid level circulation center moves across the eastern Great Lakes. Moisture quality does not look overly impressive, but expect lapse rates will steepen during diurnal heating cycle, as leading edge of colder air aloft approaches with 500 mb temperatures nearing -30C triggers at least some scattered showers. This should especially be the case from the Niagara Frontier over to around Rochester as a lake breeze boundary sets up, perhaps even producing some small hail. The resident airmass across the region remains unseasonably chilly. The approach of the upper trough will enhance the ongoing advection of cold air into western and north central New York (850 mb temperatures approaching -4C). Temperatures today likely only getting into the upper 40s to lower 50s. A tightening pressure gradient will bring gusty westerly winds adding a bit of an unpleasant wind chill for this time of year. Scattered showers may linger across eastern portions of the area tonight as the upper trough axis swings through. Temperatures tonight should have no problem lowering into the 30s. Some cloud cover, along with still some graident wind should keep the potential for any frost limited to the deeper sheltered valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A mid level trough remains across the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday. Daytime heating with cool temperatures aloft will result some showers developing in the afternoon. Best chance will be east of Lake Ontario where more moisture exists. A northerly wind will continue Wednesday however warmer temperatures expected with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, low to mid 50s across the higher terrain. High pressure will be situated across the Mid-West into Wednesday night. Some mid-level clouds and light westerly winds are expected. There is a chance for patchy frost mainly across the higher terrain as temperatures will fall to the mid 30s. Temperatures will be warmer across the lower elevations with lows in the upper 30s to around 40. An upper level ridge builds into the region Thursday with high pressure at the surface. Dry weather expected with high temperatures reaching the mid 60s. Dry weather expected Thursday night with lows in the low to mid 40s, upper 30s across higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A slow warming trend is likely Friday through Monday as high pressure resides across the region for most of the weekend. High temperatures will likely reach near normal (mid/upper 60s at BUF/ROC/ART) temperatures. Mostly dry weather expected through the weekend however afternoon showers are possible Friday and Saturday as a mid-level trough passes across the area. A storm system may impact the region Sunday night into Monday and showers and thunderstorms are possible. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR weather will persist today. Showers will be possible during the midday and afternoon mainly from KBUF to near KROC. Surface winds will increase and could gusts as high as 30 kts. Tonight, mostly VFR conditions expected, but some high end MVFR CIGS will be possible, especially across the higher terrain as a cold front passes through the area. Some showers will be possible, with the greatest chance for showers from KROC eastward. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE...
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An upper level low will drive a cold front across the Lower Great Lakes today. Westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots at times will generate waves over 4 feet on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Small craft headlines are in effect for both lakes as outlined below. The relatively strong winds will remain in place tonight as a cold front moves through the region...then winds and waves will subside on Wednesday as high pressure will start to build into the region. A large surface high will move across the Lower Great Lakes Thursday and Friday...and this will support a period of gentle to occasionally moderate winds and negligible waves.
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&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042>045. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SLZ022-024.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...TMA MARINE...RSH/TMA

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