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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 020825
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
425 AM EDT Fri Jun 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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Today will be another hot day, with near record highs at some
locations. A weak cold front will move south across the area late
today, resulting in a few spotty showers and thunderstorms which
will mainly be located across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This
weekend will be cooler, but mainly rain-free as another surface high
ridges into the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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...Record High Temperatures Today...

A broad high pressure ridge across the region early today will
weaken, but still will maintain dry weather for the vast majority of
the day. A weak back door cold front will approach from the north as
a mid-level trough digs southward into eastern Canada. This ill-
defined front will move southward across the area late this
afternoon and into tonight. The best forcing and moisture associated
with this will remain well east of our area, but the combination of
diurnal instability, surface convergence with the front, and the mid-
level trough will bring the risk of showers. The best chance for
these will be east of Lake Ontario 5 to 8 p.m., with a small chance
of showers elsewhere 8 p.m. to midnight. There should be enough
instability to support a few isolated thunderstorms as well.

Temperatures today will be fairly similar to yesterday, with near
record highs expected. With the exception of the immediate south
shores of Lake Ontario, highs across lower terrain will generally be
in the upper 80s to around 90. Record highs are 87F at Buffalo and
Watertown, and 93F at Rochester.

Tonight the cold front will drop south across the rest of the area,
with any remaining spotty showers tapering off around midnight.
Cooler with low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper level ridge responsive for the prolonged period of dry
weather the past week or two, will shift overhead of the western
Great Lakes and upper Midwest this weekend. Meanwhile across New
England, an upper level low will drop south out of far eastern Canada
where the center of the low will remain east of the area. This will
have two implication to the region. First, the eastern placement of
the upper level low will keep the area on the dry side. Secondly,
the core of the coolest air aloft will also remain east across New
England, thusly supporting warmer temperatures across the area
throughout the weekend, despite the weak back door cold front
pressing south of the area. Saturday will be the warmer of the two
days this weekend with highs in the 70s area wide, with a few low
80s possible toward the NY/PA line closer to the surface front.
Highs Sunday dip down a bit further, ranging from the mid and upper
60s across the higher terrain to the low and mid 70s elsewhere.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Another cold front will drop south late Monday, increasing the
chance for showers throughout the week. The front will be weak
overall but the airmass will include increased moisture with PWATS
approaching 1.00".

Behind the passing front later Monday, the associated surface low in
Quebec appears to become occluded, and vertically stacked with the
mid-level low Monday night into Tuesday. A large persistent trough
over the Northeastern US and southeastern Canada will allow the mid-
level low to remain over the region for most of the rest of the
week. This will result in the potential for showers for most of the
week for areas that are directly within the cooler core of the mid-
level low/trough. A few different shortwave troughs tracking through
the main trough will help aid in the potential for showers, in
addition to the daytime instability the develops under the cooler
temps aloft, resulting in increased lapse rates.

There is still plenty of uncertainty as to exactly where the core of
the mid-level low and trough will be from day to day. The non-U.S.
models trending further east, as far east as the New England coast
and Bay of Fundy, to other guidance as far west as WNY. The exact
location of where this core sets up and for how long will determine
the amount of precipitation. Went mostly with a middle of the road
forecast with higher end slight chance to low end chance from west
to east, and generally higher POPs for the daytime hours. If the
more eastern model is correct showers chances will shift east, with
eastern Lake Ontario areas standing the best chance for showers.

Temperatures during the period, especially behind the cold front
should be much cooler than what we are currently experiencing.
Afternoon highs for the period should generally range from the mid
60s to the low 70s behind the cold frontal passage; and slightly
warmer on Monday before hand.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR weather including mainly clear skies and light winds can be
expected thorugh at least 18Z today. After this a weak cold
front will drop southward across the area late this afternoon
and into tonight. This will produce scattered showers east of
Lake Ontario which may impact the KART terminal. Isolated
thunderstorms also possible. Otherwise, the rest of Western NY
will stay dry with VFR through 06Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Light winds (10 knots or less) will continue today with weakening
high pressure still parked over the Lower Great Lakes. Lake breeze
circulations will develop again, with winds becoming onshore from
midday through early evening along most lakeshores.

A backdoor cold front will move south across the region today and
tonight. Northeast winds will increase in the wake of this cold
front, with winds and waves possibly approaching Small Craft
Advisory criteria on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie late tonight through
Saturday. Northeast winds will diminish somewhat by Sunday, but
still strong enough to produce choppy conditions on both lakes.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...EAJ/JM
LONG TERM...EAJ/SW
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock