Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBUF 030550 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1250 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy overnight with snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Snow showers will continue east of Lake Ontario Wednesday with a few inches possible on the Tug Hill Plateau overnight through Wednesday. A brief warm up is expected Wednesday before colder air returns for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A warm front will move across southern Ontario, with mid-level warm air advect extending into the eastern Lake Ontario region as this front passes by late this evening. This will result in clouds, and some light snow across the St. Lawrence Valley. A strong westerly 50-60 kt low level jet will move across the region behind this front overnight. Southwest winds at the surface will also increase with surface temperatures rising overnight. Stable conditions under warm air advection should keep the strongest winds elevated however it will still get breezy overnight with the strongest winds from Lake Erie northeast across the Niagara Frontier to the City of Rochester. Southwest winds 15-25 mph with peak gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible. Lesser winds south and east of this region. Moisture will be confined to the warm front with light snow moving into the northern Tug Hill region this evening. There should be a break as the snow moves east before snow moves back across the entire Tug Hill region as an approaching shortwave trough and surface trough move south from the Ottawa Valley. Minor accumulations expected with 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will continue to increase Wednesday with daytime highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s and the low 30s on the Tug Hill. Weather will remain quiet across Western NY Wednesday morning with increasing clouds. As the surface trough nears Lake Ontario, forcing and an increase in moisture will increase the chance for rain and snow showers across Western NY Wednesday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... An amplifying ridge over the western Conus will encourage a sharpening longwave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S. during this period. This will support temps that will be solidly below normal...especially during the day. The only real weather this period will be the passage of an arctic front Wednesday night. This will generate some snow showers throughout the region to open this period while setting the stage for nuisance lake snow showers in the ensuing periods. Given H85 temps that will average in the minus teens c...the northwest flow Thursday through Friday night will support some nuisance lake snow showers...mainly southeast of Lk Ontario. Otherwise...mainly fair weather can be expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The longwave pattern will become progressive during this period with the western ridge sliding east. This will allow for Pacific modified air to flood the country...which eventually will lead to a PRONOUNCED warm up for our region at the end of this forecast period...and particularly the second half of next week. The mercury will climb well into the 50s across the western counties by Tuesday with 60s possible just outside of the scope of this package. The warm up will be accompanied by mainly dry weather. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm front will pass by to the north with clouds and some light snow clipping the eastern Lake Ontario region late this evening. A strong 50-60kt low-level jet will move across the region overnight. These strong winds will remain elevated, resulting in a brief period with LLWS at some locations. Winds aloft will mix better late tonight and early Wednesday morning, with increasing winds and wind gusts. Light snow will move into the Eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight and vsby restrictions are possible at KART into Wednesday morning. Snow will then be confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario most of the daytime Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions expected across Western NY Wednesday morning with ceilings falling to MVFR during day. Outlook... Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR. Snow showers likely across Western NY. Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Low pressure will then be quick to drop into the northern Lakes and the resultant gradient will bring an uptick in southwest winds across the Lower Great Lakes overnight. Small craft advisory conditions expected across the eastern end of Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River and western Lake Ontario. A period of higher end small craft advisory conditions is likely for the rest of Lake Ontario later tonight until winds subside later Wednesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK/TMA SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...Apffel/HSK/TMA MARINE...Apffel/HSK/TMA

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