-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
562
FXUS61 KBUF 262114
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
514 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes to New England
through the weekend, bringing an extended period of dry weather and
a day to day warming trend. Heat will build Sunday and Monday,
although humidity levels will remain low to moderate. More humid
conditions will arrive by the middle of next week, along with a
chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as a trough of low
pressure approaches from the west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will continue to drift slowly east tonight to the
Lower Great Lakes by Saturday, bringing continued dry and mainly
clear weather. The clear skies and light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling conditions again tonight, with lows dropping
back into the 50s. Expect some river valley fog across the Southern
Tier late tonight through early Saturday morning.

Saturday, a few diurnal cumulus may develop again with daytime
heating inland from the lakes. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine once
again. Ongoing airmass modification will add on a few more degrees
to temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s for lower
elevations on upper 70s on the hills.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An omega block will drift east across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes Sunday, with surface high pressure beneath drifting from
NY/PA and New England Sunday into southern Quebec by Monday. High
pressure surface and aloft will continue to support an extended
period of dry weather for the second half of the weekend into at
least the first half of Monday. A mid level trough and associated
weak surface trough will move into the western Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley later Monday. A gradual increase in large scale forcing,
moisture, and instability will bring a low chance of a late day
shower or thunderstorm to far Western NY, but the better rain
chances will remain west of our region through Monday.

Temperatures will continue their day to day warming trend with
building heights and ongoing warm advection. Highs Sunday and Monday
will be in the upper 80s to near 90, with mid 80s for higher
terrain. Surface dewpoints only slowly rise through the period, with
no appreciable heat index above and beyond the actual air
temperature through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through this
period. Temperatures above normal, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to
mid 70s will keep days humid and nights muggy. Heat index values
will near 90F, and lower 90s by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day through this period.

A closed Atlantic low will start this period off the Atlantic
coastline, drifting north/northwestward. Exact track and timing of
this closed low is still with uncertainty...which will have
ramifications on the timing of the trough/ridge progression the
remainder of the week. As such timing showers and thunderstorms will
be difficult. Weak, mild flow aloft does not bring an increase
potential for severe storms as of yet, though the PWAT values 1.75"+
within this weak flow could yield drenching thunderstorms with
potential hydro concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Clear skies and VFR will prevail in most areas tonight. Areas of
river valley fog will develop across the Southern Tier with local
IFR. The chance of fog at KJHW is low (but non-zero) with a better
chance of fog in the surrounding valleys.

Saturday, Southern Tier river valley fog will burn off by mid
morning, leaving VFR to prevail as high pressure remains over the
eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog with local IFR
possible across the Southern Tier each overnight/early morning.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will drift east tonight to the lower Great
Lakes by Saturday, then to New England Sunday before weakening
over southern Quebec Monday. The resulting light winds and
negligible wave action will generally support very nice
conditions for recreational boating this weekend...although very
light winds on Saturday may be less than ideal for those
sailing.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...RSH