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FXUS61 KBUF 260215
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1015 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes
tonight before moving to New England Friday, providing a stretch of
dry weather through Friday. Temperatures will warm nicely Friday
after another cold night tonight. The warming trend will then
continue over the weekend and into early next week, resulting in
late spring-like warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday.
While there will also be a few showers and thunderstorms around,
particularly during Saturday, a fair amount of dry time can also be
expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY EVENING/...
...One More Unseasonably Cold Night Tonight...

Sprawling Canadian surface high pressure will settle directly across
our area this evening, then drift east over eastern NY/western New
England tonight. This will guarantee our dry weather continues, but
will also bring the promise of one more unseasonably chilly night,
with light winds and clear skies promoting excellent radiational
cooling conditions. Lows will be solidly in the 20s for the bulk of
the region again tonight, with some upper teens not out of the
question across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario where high
pressure will be centered overhead. Meanwhile, areas along the
immediate Lake Erie shoreline may `only` bottom out in the low 30s
as a light southeasterly return flow develops later tonight.

Strong high pressure remains in control of our weather on Friday as
it continues to drift slowly east across New England. This will not
only allow dry weather to persist for a second day, but a
strengthening southeasterly return flow on the back side of the high
will help boost temperatures by at least 10 degrees, pushing daytime
highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridging overhead of the Great Lakes Friday night will give
become zonal due to a shortwave trough passing through the next
incoming longwave trough to the west across the northern Plains.
Said shortwave trough will support a surface low overhead of the
northern Plains sprawling a warm front across the Great Lakes. 12Z
guidance continues to support the warm front to arrive late Friday
night/early Saturday morning, before weakening and crossing from
west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Heading into Sunday, the region will lie under ample warm air
advection supporting temperatures at 850mb to warm up to +12/13 C
which will support high temperatures well above normal and ranging
in the 70s, and possibly a few locations across the warmer areas of
the Genesee Valley reaching in the low 80s. Combination of the
warmer temperatures and the lingering synoptic lift from the
lingering/stalled cold front to the north of the area, will support
diurnally driven instability and afternoon showers/thunderstorms.

The mid-level ridge axis will cross the area Sunday night supporting
a some dry weather to return Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday, will focus any chances for convective showers near a
lingering frontal boundary that will waver across the Finger Lakes
and eastern Lake Ontario region. Could see a few thunderstorms
during the afternoon with several hundred J/KG of MUCAPE, though
much of the afternoon should be dry with developing lake breeze
boundaries keeping areas closer to Lake Erie stable.

The main cold front will cross our region Tuesday with additional
showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated thunder ahead of the
front will reach a still mild WNY late Monday night and Tuesday
morning. Best chances for thunder will be towards the east where a
later arrival of the cold front will allow for some daytime
instability to grow.

Still some timing differences with the eventual passage of the mid
level trough, with chances for showers either Wednesday or Thursday
depending upon timing of upper level support.

It will be a pleasantly warm day ahead of the cold front
Monday, with southwesterly flow and 850 hPa temperatures 12-13C,
promoting widespread upper 70s and lower 80s, and even mid 80s
in the Genesee Valley. This southwest flow will keep downtown
Buffalo a bit cooler. Also depending upon the eventual set up of
a stalled frontal boundary draped across the eastern waters of
Lake Ontario, a possible northerly component to the wind may
keep the southeast shoreline a bit cooler.

Cooler, but still above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday,
with around normal temperatures Thursday in the presence of the mid
level trough and its associated cooler airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight before
drifting east to New England Friday. Clear skies and VFR will
prevail tonight. VFR will continue to prevail Friday with a modest
increase in high cirrus level clouds.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated
thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Sprawling Canadian high pressure will build over the lower Great
Lakes tonight before reaching eastern New York and western New
England by Friday morning. Moderate northeasterlies will continue to
produce some chop on Lake Erie overnight, with light winds on Lake
Ontario.

On Friday, the surface high will slide east to the New England
coastline, with a general easterly to east-northeasterly flow
continuing across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will
be more easterly, and will become strong enough to bring Small Craft
Advisory conditions to the western portion of the lake west of
Rochester Friday afternoon and evening. Northeast winds will also
increase on Lake Erie again Friday with a moderate chop.

Flow will then veer south to southeast and strengthen Friday night
and Saturday, however the offshore flow is expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Friday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/JM
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock/JM