Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271358
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
958 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of weak cold fronts will pass through the region today. While
these could touch off a few light showers into this evening...much
of the area will be rain free. Cooler air in the wake of the fronts
will then accompany fair dry conditions overnight tonight through at
LEAST Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A pair of cold fronts will make their way across our forecast area
today. The first is in the process of crossing the IAG FRontier and
is marked by a 50 mile wide swath of low clouds. Limited forcing and
a lack of significant moisture above H7 will translate into little
if any pcpn with the first front...at least through early afternoon.
As we move deeper into the afternoon...some diurnally induced
instability could help to squeeze out at least scattered showers for
the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario region.

As for the second front...this boundary will serve more to mark the
airmass change to cooler weather. While a couple light showers
cannot be ruled out with it...this should not be a noticeable
passage. Otherwise...there will be a large range in temperatures
today with highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s over the
far western counties to the mid 60s from Oswego county back across
Ontario county.

High pressure will then nose towards our region tonight. This will
bring fair weather, albeit still with mostly cloudy skies to start
as we remain under an upper level trough. Some clearing possible
late across far western zones with drier air building in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather through the period. High pressure will build in from
the south to promote dry conditions both Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures, though cooler will be near seasonal normals as a
broad low drifts over Hudson Bay and slowly fills in.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deterministic guidance (12Z ECMWF and GFS) still at odds(timing) to
when a weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will
impact the eastern Great Lakes Saturday and/or Saturday night. Have
kept chance Pops for most locales, with the greatest potential for
showers over SW NYS.

High pressure builds in Sunday, which will bring fair dry weather
through Monday. The next system to impact western and central New
York still looks on track for late Monday night and Tuesday. Low
pressure over the plains will push a warm front towards our region,
possibly bringing a soaking rain or rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Two relatively weak cold fronts will cross the region today. Swaths
of clouds associated with the fronts will support MVFR cigs and a
few scattered showers...while areas away from the fronts will
experience VFR weather.

While MVFR cigs will be found east of Lake Ontario tonight...
generally VFR weather can be anticipated.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will slowly cross the Lakes today and this evening with
southerly winds, with a bit of a gust at times, becoming westerly
later today and tonight. The southerly winds will be strongest along
the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline from Sandy Pond to the Saint
Lawrence River where speeds upwards to 20 knots will remain through
the afternoon. Otherwise winds will largely remain below small craft
thresholds, with a choppy lake water of several feet.

Behind this cold front high pressure will nose towards our region
with winds and waves diminishing Thursday.

Cold air advection combined with a tightening pressure gradient
between the surface high and a strengthening east coast low will
increase northwest winds Thursday night, that may reach small craft
thresholds, along with wave heights late Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Thomas


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