Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000 FXUS65 KBYZ 042043 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 143 PM MST Thu Mar 4 2021 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday night... An upper ridge is dominating the weather over the Northern Rockies today with warm and dry conditions and light winds. High clouds are slowly moving northward, away from an upper low located in the UT/CO area. This upper low will move east/southeastward, well to our south, tonight into Friday. As the low moves farther away from our area, the high clouds should dissipate this evening, giving way to clear skies overnight. In addition, surface high pressure building over western WY tonight will favor breezy conditions along the Livingston-Nye corridor. The upper ridge will build over the region on Friday, with more warm and dry conditions. Clouds will increase from the west to the east during the day and into Friday night. Breezy conditions should persist along the Livingston-Nye corridor. Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s tonight and Friday night. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the 50s and 60s. RMS Saturday through Thursday... Mainly warm and dry conditions will prevail into early next week, with high pressure aloft in control over the area. A shortwave passes over the area Saturday evening, flattening the ridge, and bringing a brief shot of snow for the mountains. Lower elevations should remain mainly dry. The shortwave will also bring slightly cooler temps for Sunday. Expect breezy conditions Saturday ahead of the shortwave, but with significantly less wind than recent weeks. breezy conditions will continue into Sunday, with generally zonal flow aloft. Ridging begins to redevelop Sunday night, but slips east ahead of the approaching Pacific trough. Southwest flow aloft takes over across the region by early Monday afternoon, bringing a plume o Pacific moisture into our southwest mountains by Monday evening. Bigger changes begin early Tuesday, with a developing surface low over southeast Montana, and a strong upper level Pacific low shift eastward. The projected track of the upper low is quite variable among model, but there is beginning to be some consensus on slow easterly progression of the surface low. Current ensembles indicate a slow progression of precip eastward behind this surface low, with Pacific low pumping moisture into the system. This setup keeps precip over the area from Tuesday through much of the day Wednesday. Precip at lower elevations will likely start as rain before transitioning to snow as temperatures fall. Below normal temperatures will return across much of the region with this system Tuesday, and will hang on for a couple of days. We continue to watch this system closely, but currently it is too early to provide much in the way of details. High temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s (with possible 70s along the ND/SD border) before cooling slightly Sunday and Monday into the 50s. Temperatures will drop into the 30s, Tuesday from west to east, as the weather system shifts east. Temps will remain in the 30s Wednesday, but are expected to climb back to around 40 for Thursday. Gilstad && .AVIATION... High pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR conditions tonight into Friday. JKL/RMS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 031/061 033/063 034/056 031/056 034/039 022/039 025/042 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 25/O 43/S 21/B LVM 029/060 032/060 032/050 031/051 032/035 020/037 028/037 00/N 00/B 10/B 01/B 46/S 43/S 22/O HDN 026/063 026/065 032/057 029/059 032/041 021/039 021/044 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 15/O 44/S 21/B MLS 028/063 028/064 034/055 030/058 033/044 019/036 018/041 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 13/O 43/S 21/B 4BQ 029/062 030/066 034/056 031/061 034/045 021/037 021/042 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 02/O 33/S 21/B BHK 028/063 030/067 033/053 028/058 031/048 019/035 014/039 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 13/O 43/S 21/B SHR 025/060 025/061 029/053 027/057 029/039 019/037 021/040 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 14/O 44/S 32/O && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings

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