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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 042043
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
143 PM MST Thu Mar 4 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday night...

An upper ridge is dominating the weather over the Northern Rockies
today with warm and dry conditions and light winds. High clouds
are slowly moving northward, away from an upper low located in the
UT/CO area. This upper low will move east/southeastward, well to
our south, tonight into Friday. As the low moves farther away from
our area, the high clouds should dissipate this evening, giving
way to clear skies overnight. In addition, surface high pressure
building over western WY tonight will favor breezy conditions
along the Livingston-Nye corridor.

The upper ridge will build over the region on Friday, with more
warm and dry conditions. Clouds will increase from the west to the
east during the day and into Friday night. Breezy conditions
should persist along the Livingston-Nye corridor.

Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s tonight and
Friday night. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the
50s and 60s. RMS

Saturday through Thursday...

Mainly warm and dry conditions will prevail into early next week,
with high pressure aloft in control over the area.

A shortwave passes over the area Saturday evening, flattening the
ridge, and bringing a brief shot of snow for the mountains. Lower
elevations should remain mainly dry. The shortwave will also
bring slightly cooler temps for Sunday. Expect breezy conditions
Saturday ahead of the shortwave, but with significantly less wind
than recent weeks. breezy conditions will continue into Sunday,
with generally zonal flow aloft.

Ridging begins to redevelop Sunday night, but slips east ahead of
the approaching Pacific trough. Southwest flow aloft takes over
across the region by early Monday afternoon, bringing a plume o
Pacific moisture into our southwest mountains by Monday evening.

Bigger changes begin early Tuesday, with a developing surface low
over southeast Montana, and a strong upper level Pacific low
shift eastward. The projected track of the upper low is quite
variable among model, but there is beginning to be some consensus
on slow easterly progression of the surface low. Current ensembles
indicate a slow progression of precip eastward behind this surface
low, with Pacific low pumping moisture into the system. This setup
keeps precip over the area from Tuesday through much of the day
Wednesday. Precip at lower elevations will likely start as rain
before transitioning to snow as temperatures fall. Below normal
temperatures will return across much of the region with this
system Tuesday, and will hang on for a couple of days. We continue
to watch this system closely, but currently it is too early to
provide much in the way of details.

High temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s (with possible 70s
along the ND/SD border) before cooling slightly Sunday and Monday
into the 50s. Temperatures will drop into the 30s, Tuesday from
west to east, as the weather system shifts east. Temps will
remain in the 30s Wednesday, but are expected to climb back to
around 40 for Thursday.

Gilstad
&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR conditions tonight
into Friday. JKL/RMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/061 033/063 034/056 031/056 034/039 022/039 025/042
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    25/O    43/S    21/B
LVM 029/060 032/060 032/050 031/051 032/035 020/037 028/037
    00/N    00/B    10/B    01/B    46/S    43/S    22/O
HDN 026/063 026/065 032/057 029/059 032/041 021/039 021/044
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    15/O    44/S    21/B
MLS 028/063 028/064 034/055 030/058 033/044 019/036 018/041
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    13/O    43/S    21/B
4BQ 029/062 030/066 034/056 031/061 034/045 021/037 021/042
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    02/O    33/S    21/B
BHK 028/063 030/067 033/053 028/058 031/048 019/035 014/039
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    13/O    43/S    21/B
SHR 025/060 025/061 029/053 027/057 029/039 019/037 021/040
    00/U    00/B    00/U    00/B    14/O    44/S    32/O

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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