Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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980
FXUS65 KBYZ 282112
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
312 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Wednesday night...

This evening through overnight, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected west of Big Timber. Southerly winds
over the region will increase moisture overnight into Wednesday,
raising PWATs to 0.75 to 1 inch.

Late Wednesday morning, the chance of showers and thunderstorms
will increase and spread east, with a 50-60% chance of precip and
a 35-45% chance of thunderstorms west of Billings by midday. By
Wednesday evening, the chance of precip increases to 70-90% across
the forecast area. The chance of thunderstorms increases to
50-60% over Fallon and Carter counties, and a 40-50% chance over
the rest of the area.

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for
Wednesday for Fallon and Carter counties, where CAPE values are
expected to be highest. However, stronger shear is expected over
Billings to Sheridan, so despite lower CAPE values, a severe
thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out in this area. The main
threat with any storms is high winds. Small hail is also possible,
and any storms that develop a longer track may produce some large
hail. Additionally, the WPC has issued a marginal risk for
Excessive Rainfall across the forecast area due to the locally
heavy rainfall possible with thunderstorms.

Late Wednesday evening through overnight, showers and
thunderstorms will decrease. Snow levels are expected to drop to
around 6000 ft Wednesday night, so lingering showers will bring a
40% chance of at least 3 inches of snow over the
Beartooth/Absarokas. Archer


Thursday through Tuesday...

In the wake of a cold front, Thursday will bring cooler
temperatures, breezy west to northwest winds and mainly dry
conditions to the area. Probabilities for wind gusts of 40 mph or
greater are currently 30-50% from Big Timber north through
Harlowton, and less than 15% for other locations. Unsettled
weather can be expected into early next week as multiple
shortwaves are progged to move through the region at times
bringing chances for showers/thunderstorms. At this time, the day
with the greatest precipitation potential is Sunday (20-60%
chance, greatest along the western foothills/mountains). Ensembles
point towards warmer and drier conditions heading into midweek as
high pressure builds aloft.

High temperatures are currently forecast to range from the upper
50s to 60s on Thursday, warming into the 70s for the weekend.
Widespread 70s and 80s are forecast for by Tuesday. STP
&&

.AVIATION...

Clouds will gradually move in from the west this evening into
Wednesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible near
KLVM late this evening through overnight. Late Wednesday morning,
showers and thunderstorms will increase and spread east. East of
KBIL, some storms may be severe. Conditions may decrease to
MVFR/IFR under pockets of heavy rain.

TS POTENTIAL START TIMES WEDNESDAY:
KBIL: 20Z
KLVM: 18Z
KMLS: 22Z
KSHR: 21Z

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/075 045/064 044/069 046/077 052/074 053/080 056/079
    09/T    81/N    00/B    00/B    24/T    21/B    11/B
LVM 050/067 037/061 038/069 042/075 048/071 049/076 051/077
    2+/T    71/N    00/U    01/B    35/T    22/T    11/N
HDN 052/078 045/065 042/071 044/079 050/076 051/082 055/082
    08/T    81/B    01/B    00/B    23/W    21/B    11/B
MLS 055/083 048/064 043/071 044/079 053/077 052/080 056/082
    03/T    81/N    01/B    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
4BQ 055/085 048/064 042/071 045/080 053/077 053/082 056/082
    04/T    80/U    11/U    00/U    12/W    21/B    11/B
BHK 050/083 045/062 039/067 041/077 051/077 049/079 053/077
    04/T    90/N    01/B    10/U    13/W    21/B    21/U
SHR 051/080 042/062 040/070 042/079 048/075 049/081 052/081
    06/T    82/W    11/U    00/U    13/T    21/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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