010
FXUS65 KBYZ 142024
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
124 PM MST Tue Jan 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, breezy, and dry Wednesday and Thursday. Strong SW wind
  gusts to 60 mph expected at Livingston late Wednesday night
  through Thursday.

- Snow returns Friday into Saturday. Best chance of accumulating
  snow is over the mountains and foothills (high chance of at
  least 1 to 2 inches).

- Very cold Saturday through Monday (will be coldest yet of the
  winter). Highs will range from 5 below to 15 above zero (coldest
  east). Dress for the cold temperatures, especially Monday
  morning when wind chills could reach -20 to -40 degF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Wednesday night...

A couple of dry & warmer days coming up. Of course, we can`t have
that in mid January without wind along the foothills.

Satellite imagery shows strong high pressure over the PacNW coast
and anticyclonic northerly flow over our region, with rising
heights. There is a shortwave moving thru northern AB that will
track to the southeast thru SK and MB, i.e. well to north, and we
will see some increase in high clouds tonight with that wave`s
passage. More importantly, we will see a short period of enhanced
pressure falls over eastern MT tonight. This will likely add a bit
to the gusts we are already seeing along our western foothills.
There is a 50-70% chance of gusts reaching 50+ mph at Big Timber
and Harlowton late tonight into early Wednesday. Orientation of
the gradient under the northerly flow favors these sites and not
the gap areas during this time.

Winds will slacken somewhat during the day tomorrow, then by late
evening we see the next round of pressure falls begin, associated
with a stronger trof approaching from the NW which will result in
increasing westerly winds aloft and height falls. Winds at 700mb
are expected to rise to 40-50 knots by Thursday, which along with
a favorable gradient & stability suggest advisory level gusts at
Livingston and Nye. Gusts to 60+ mph are likely (60% chance) at
Livingston beginning around 09z early Thursday. Heads up for
travelers of high-profile vehicles or those towing trailers on
I-90.

Temperatures will turn gradually warmer, resulting in increased
lower elevation snow melt. Temperature has reached 40F at
Timbercrest Raws west of Red Lodge at 6400` today. Foothills temps
and even locations further east will see temps reach or exceed
40F on Wednesday as downslope warming continues under the building
ridge. The wind will also moderate nighttime lows.

JKL

Thursday through Tuesday...

The long-term forecast remains active with windy conditions
Thursday over the western foothills, another shot of snow Friday
into Saturday, and the coldest temperatures of the season so far
Saturday into Monday.

Windy conditions will exist Thursday over the western foothills.
The strongest winds are anticipated around Livingston to Nye as
favorable gap wind conditions set up. With this, the chance of
seeing wind gusts over 50 mph is high at 85 percent. While the
chance of 60 mph winds is less, there is still a moderate, 55
percent chance. Over Big Timber to Harlowton, breezy westerly
winds with gusts into the 40s (mph) are expected Thursday. As far
as gusts into the 50 mph range go, Big Timber has the best chance
around 60 percent mid-day Thursday. Conditions do not look as
favorable at Harlowton, so the chance is lower at 50 percent. The
area around Fort Smith will also be windy Thursday with gusts into
the lower 40s (mph) forecast.

The chance of snow returns to the region Friday into Saturday.
With this, the chance of snow is highest over the mountains and
foothills generally south of Billings. These regions have a
moderate to high chance of seeing 2 or more inches of snow with
northerly winds allowing for upslope enhancement into north facing
slopes. While the best upslope enhancement is not expected to
last very long, areas along the foothills (including Red Lodge)
will need to be monitored for locally greater snow amounts. As you
move northeast off the mountains and foothills, the chance of
snow decreases quickly. At this time, the chance of 1 or more
inches of snow is 35 percent in Billings and less than 5 percent
in Miles City and Baker. While snow amounts decrease off the
foothills, breezy winds may create patchy blowing snow along I-90
from Livingston, MT through Sheridan, WY Friday.

After the snow, the coldest temperatures of the season so far are
expected Saturday into Monday. During this time, high
temperatures are forecast to range from 5F below zero to 15F above
zero with the coldest temperatures in the east around Baker and
Ekalaka. Overnight lows are forecast to range from 5F below zero
to 20F below zero Saturday and Sunday night, coldest Sunday night
into Monday morning. During this time, wind chills may reach as
low as 20F to 40F below zero. While uncertainty remains in the
Monday high temperature, there is good confidence in warmer
temperatures returning on Tuesday after a cold morning. During
this cold period, make sure to dress for the weather. Those with
interests on waterways can expect increased ice on waterways as
well. Arends

&&

.AVIATION...

Building high pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR over the
next 24 hours, with occasional high clouds. Brisk westerly winds
will continue along the western foothills, with occasional gusts
of 30-45 knots at KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/040 029/043 026/030 008/014 906/007 909/014 006/028
    00/N    00/N    25/S    42/S    11/B    01/U    12/S
LVM 025/043 033/047 024/030 004/015 905/011 907/020 008/031
    00/N    00/N    27/S    41/E    11/B    00/U    12/S
HDN 021/042 020/045 024/030 004/014 908/007 915/013 000/029
    00/U    00/U    26/S    54/S    21/B    11/U    13/S
MLS 018/037 020/040 022/028 003/008 913/902 918/004 905/024
    00/B    00/U    01/E    21/E    00/I    01/U    13/S
4BQ 019/039 022/041 024/029 003/010 913/000 918/007 904/027
    00/B    00/U    02/S    42/S    10/B    01/U    12/S
BHK 015/037 019/041 019/024 904/005 920/905 921/002 909/023
    00/N    00/N    00/N    10/E    00/I    00/U    12/S
SHR 017/044 022/049 020/029 001/013 911/005 917/014 904/033
    00/B    00/U    27/S    53/S    11/B    11/U    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings