Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 271844 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 244 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers or thunderstorms may yet occur today as a cold front approaches from the west. The best chance of any strong thunderstorms will be in the eastern CWA. Behind the front, high pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime temperatures. Daily chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm return to the forecast next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms has developed and is currently moving towards I-95 and the far Eastern Midlands. While this will likely be our last decent chance of measurable precipitation today, hi-res models continue to show the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms passing through the forecast area this afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front which is now moving through Northwestern Georgia. Have continued to incorporate the high-res guidance into the PoPs to show the isolated nature of this activity. Outside of any convection, skies should be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Decreasing cloudiness is expected during the overnight hours allowing temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 60s. A few locations in the northwestern forecast area could bottom out in the upper 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper low will be moving into the northeast Saturday morning with broad ridging across the central CONUS. The southernmost portion of the trough axis is expected to extend into the GoM, then cut off Saturday evening sometime. This will be a turbulent period for upper level winds, with a lot of variability in direction as the one system splits into two. Initially, we`ll advect drier air across the area on Saturday with PWAT dropping below 1" and dry conditions expected. By Sunday, moisture will start to return on south to southeasterly flow as we get caught between the low to our south and weak high pressure over southeastern NC. This will bump PWAT values back to between 1.25" and 1.5" by the afternoon. Should the seabreeze front be strong enough to make it to our eastern zones, there may be some showers and storms which develop, though the severe threat appears minimal at this time. Temperatures Saturday will be tempered just a tad by the upper trough splitting, with highs reaching the upper 80s across the southeastern Midlands to mid 80s across the northwestern Midlands. Should be mostly clear Saturday night with good radiational conditions and lows in the low to mid 60s. It will be slightly warmer on Sunday with heights recovering, so expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and overnight lows falling into the middle 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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By Monday, upper ridge will be well established over the eastern seaboard with troughing across the west. Rex blocking returns with upper low trapped to our south and southeast under the ridge. This pattern persists into mid-week, so not much day to day variability in our sensible weather as the main storm track remains to our north. Atmospheric moisture remains near normal with PWATs ranging between 1.1" and 1.4", though these values could be a little higher late next week. What we will see is daily rainfall chances mainly confined to the afternoon and early evening hours each day with highest pops over the eastern CWA closer to the sea-breeze. High temperatures for this period generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The low clouds that have been plaguing the terminals this morning have lifted. Scattered cumulus will pass through the forecast area for the reminder of the day. Since the main line of convection has now passed east of all terminals, have removed any mention of precipitation from the TAFs. Having said that, there is a continued risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening and forecasts will be adjusted as needed. Winds could be periodically gusty outside of convection this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight resulting in light winds and clear skies which should continue for the rest of the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure and dry air is expected Saturday through Monday with no restrictions expected. Afternoon aviation restrictions are possible Monday and Tuesday from isolated showers or thunderstorms.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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