Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 202059 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 459 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A large dome of dry high pressure will ensure fair weather through the weekend. The high will shift to our east Sunday through early next week, while a slow moving front approaches and stalls. Moisture will increase in a low-level flow off the Atlantic. Another front will move into the region midweek. These factors will lead to increasing precipitation chances during the period with a trend towards lower temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... High pressure centered over the region will continue to provide dry weather through tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees under mainly clear skies. Most of the models are indicating at least patchy late night fog given ample low-level moisture combined with dry air aloft. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A large dome of dry high pressure will continue to dominate. This will ensure fair weather and continued above normal temperatures. Forecast soundings continue to indicate a dry and capped atmosphere, precluding convection for our forecast area (FA), though gradual increases in low-level moisture may provide some late night/early morning fog/stratus potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure aloft will shift to our east, while a front tries to back door down into our region. Models indicate possible weak wedge to develop to our north Sunday/Monday with uncertainty as to how far south it can develop. Clockwise flow around the upper high to bring in an upper disturbance and associated surface wave towards our region early to midweek, while another front moves in around Wed/Thu. Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase through the period, so expect increasing precipitation chances and lower temperatures. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect VFR conditions outside of late night or early morning fog or stratus. Surface high pressure centered over the region will provide dry weather through the 24-hour TAF period. An easterly component to the winds has resulted in a slight low-level moisture increase. Fog or stratus development will be possible early in the morning given the low-level moisture increase with dry air aloft. The models indicate a 15- to 20-knot low-level jet but it appears to weaken before daybreak. The restriction could be stratus or fog. Still, moisture should be limited in the initially very dry air mass. We leaned toward the GFS LAMP and maintained VFR conditions except for a period of MVFR restrictions at OGB and AGS because of the added moisture and cooling associated with the river valleys. The MAV and MET MOS support easterly wind less than 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...An onshore flow should bring increased low-level moisture with an increased chance of late night and early morning stratus and fog. && .HYDROLOGY... Flooding continues at the Great Pee Dee River at Cheraw but the river is forecast to drop below flood stage this evening. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99 HYDROLOGY...99

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