Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 030843 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 443 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving pattern aloft will persist over the next few days. A warm day is expected today with highs approaching 90 degrees ahead of a cold front that may bring isolated showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Drier and cooler air is expected Sunday behind the front and then a gradual warming trend is expected into the middle of the week before moisture and rain chances return.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Morning analysis reveals the persistent upper level blocking pattern with a strong high over southern Canada with a deep low off the Pacific coast and another over New England. TS Arlene continues to drift southeastward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows generally clear skies over the forecast area with some patchy mid level clouds over the southeastern Midlands and stratus clouds evident along the NC coast. Generally benign weather expected today with weak surface high pressure over the region. Atmospheric moisture is low with a gradient in PWATs ranging from around 0.9 inches north to 1.2 inches south. Northeasterly flow today will help usher in some of the drier air to the north and this should help provide plenty of sunshine today and combine with 850mb temps around +16C to +17C to support high temperatures approaching 90 degrees. The upper trough over New England will move southward in response the retrograding upper ridge and this will force a weak front southward toward the forecast area. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front in NC and drift southward into the northern and western Midlands by evening. Instability is limited as is moisture, so the severe threat also appears limited at this time. Will carry low pops late afternoon into the evening hours across the northern and western Midlands. Any lingering showers should diminish after midnight with the loss of heating. Stratus is expected to develop and move in from the northeast late tonight which will limit radiational cooling and expect lows to be near normal in the lower to mid 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold front Sunday morning will be pushing south with lingering moisture and low clouds hanging on across the forecast area. Increasing NE winds behind the front will promote stronger mixing in the low levels while transporting drier air from the Mid Atlantic. As a result, low clouds will scour out, although a cumulus field expected to remain in place into the afternoon. PWATs rapidly decrease into the afternoon, falling below an inch across the NE portion of the forecast area with dry weather continuing. Temperatures fall behind the front, between 5 to 10 degrees lower than today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows overnight drop into the upper 50s to near 60. Well below normal PWATs Monday with forecast soundings indicating deep layer dry air with the flow pattern generally out of the north. While temperatures will remain below normal, increased sun and airmass modification will allow temperatures to recover with highs in the mid 80s. Lows also moderate with low temperatures in the mid 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Benign weather pattern will continue through the long term period with ensemble means favoring an upper low near New England with general troughing. This will continue to support temperatures near to slightly below seasonal average as this upper low retrogrades and forcing a deepening trough over the forecast area. With the flow pattern generally out of the N/NW, moisture will continue to remain below average with NAEFS indicating PWATs will be near the 10th percentile. A bit of moisture convergence will be possible Thursday with the highest chances for showers but coverage still expected to be limited at this time. Otherwise, diurnal convection chances will be low each day through the long term period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period except for possible vsby restrictions during the predawn hours at AGS. Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies but isolated to scattered lower clouds are skirting the eastern Midlands. Light and variable to near calm winds through sunrise then winds will pick up from the northeast around 6 to 10 knots with some gusts around 15 knots through the afternoon. Cannot rule out some patchy IFR vsbys at AGS due to radiational cooling with mainly clear skies and low dewpoint depression. A front will slide south through the region this evening and isolated showers or even a thunderstorm is possible but mainly staying north of the terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will keep chances for significant restrictions low through the weekend. A front may move into the area early next week but confidence in restrictions is low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ .

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