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000
FXUS62 KCAE 180907
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
407 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance developing along the coast today will slowly
move along the coast through tonight. On Monday the disturbance
will move northward away from the region as the next weak cold
front approaches from the west. The cold front with limited
moisture will cross the region early Tuesday. High pressure
will dominate during the middle of the week with unsettled
weather returning late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over the New England States will move eastward
through the day as a weak disturbance develops along the
southern SC Coast. Satellite imagery currently shows low level
clouds developing along the coast and moving into the far
eastern Midlands. Although clouds will increase through the day
there is little chance of showers as pwat values remain aob 0.8
inches. As pwat values finally reach one inch tonight have
included slight chance pops for the eastern Midlands with little
QPF expected. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to
mid 60s with lows tonight in the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The weak disturbance along the coast will be along the NC border
Monday at daybreak and continue moving northward through the
day with weak high pressure over the area. This will leave the
area temporarily between systems as a cold front moves through
the mid MS River Valley late Monday morning and the TN Valley
Monday evening. Monday night the front will move into the
Upstate and into the forecast area around daybreak Tuesday.
Models continue to differ slightly in regard to moisture however
best dynamics remain north of the area with fropa so have
continued with dry forecast. Front will move to the coast by
early afternoon with high pressure along with colder and drier
air returning to the region for Tuesday night. Temperatures
through the short term will be low to mid 60s each afternoon
with overnight lows Monday night in the mid 40s to around 50 and
mid 30s to around 40 under cold advection Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement through most of the long term
with some differences in the handling of a low pressure system
for next weekend. High pressure will build into the region
Wednesday and keep dry weather in place through Thursday night.
The next storm system will develop over the central Plains
Thursday night and early Friday then move rapidly eastward
through the day Friday. This will result in increasing moisture
across the area Thursday night with chances of showers beginning
during the day Friday. Although models differ on the position
and intensity of the low there is agreement on moisture for
showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures through the long
term will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some cirrus clouds moving across the area at the moment but
will be thinning out. MVFR fog is developing near rivers and may
impact terminals overnight but confidence low. Models are
indicating strato-cumulus will advect inland from the coast
toward morning. Lamp guidance is indicating potential MVFR
ceilings especially at AGS/DNL after 12z. Will forecast VFR
ceilings at this time but expect broken strato-cumulus through
the day with light northeast winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor to moderate flooding on the Congaree River, Enoree River,
Great Pee Dee River and Wateree River will continue through the
weekend and into next week. Please see river flood products or
the AHPS website for information on river flooding at
https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=cae

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$