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109
FXUS62 KCAE 160710
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
310 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Ridging will build into the Southeast US this week leading to
warming temperatures and a more typical summertime pattern. Heat
Index values may exceed 100 degrees later this week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon

SW low-level flow continues with moisture advection pushing PWAT
values up to 2 inches by this afternoon. Slight height rises
will keep shortwave activity west and north of the forecast
area. Ridging over the region and a warm moist air mass will
support a seasonable weather pattern of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. CAMs are in general
agreement showing little coverage over the area. A weak lee-side
trough and sea-breeze will be the main forcing mechanisms to
trigger storms. Severe weather chances will be normal for the
season with isolated damaging downburst winds and localized
heavy rain possible. The flash flooding risk is limited to urban
areas and any training storms with mean wind speeds from 10 to
15 kts. Temperatures will mainly be in the low 90s, just a few
degrees above normal. Heat Index values will be as high as 100F.
Any convection will diminish during the evening with lows
overnight in the low to mid 70s.
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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A typical summertime pattern continues into Wednesday as ridging
remains over the western Atlantic. As a result, south to
southwesterly flow keeps a steady supply of elevated moisture in
the area. Weak shortwaves rotating around the ridge bring
isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area each day. However, these
shortwaves are forecast to pass to our west and north, which
leads to higher chances for activity to the northwestern
portions of the area. In addition to the shower/thunderstorm
potential, heat index values of 100+ are possible each
afternoon.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An upper level trough is forecast to move from the central US
through the region on Thursday, pushing a frontal boundary
through the area as well. Current guidance is in relatively
decent agreement that the boundary is anticipated to move
through the area overnight Thursday, which should limit the
convection associated with the boundary. After the boundary
passes, a gradual decrease in moisture is anticipated for the
end of the week as slightly drier air gets ushered in. Despite
the drier air moving in, daily chances for showers/storms
continue into the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Expect SW winds through the TAF period becoming light and
variable tonight. Any afternoon convection will likely be
isolated to scattered so confidence is only high enough to
include thunderstorms in a PROB30 group for the time being. Low
level moisture over the region could lead to stratus early this
morning and again tonight. Model guidance has been inconsistent
on stratus development and convective debris clouds may also
hinder development so confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Apart from scattered afternoon
convection, patchy early morning fog and stratus may also cause
some restrictions through the extended.
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.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$