Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 180907 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 407 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance developing along the coast today will slowly move along the coast through tonight. On Monday the disturbance will move northward away from the region as the next weak cold front approaches from the west. The cold front with limited moisture will cross the region early Tuesday. High pressure will dominate during the middle of the week with unsettled weather returning late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure over the New England States will move eastward through the day as a weak disturbance develops along the southern SC Coast. Satellite imagery currently shows low level clouds developing along the coast and moving into the far eastern Midlands. Although clouds will increase through the day there is little chance of showers as pwat values remain aob 0.8 inches. As pwat values finally reach one inch tonight have included slight chance pops for the eastern Midlands with little QPF expected. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s with lows tonight in the mid 40s to around 50. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The weak disturbance along the coast will be along the NC border Monday at daybreak and continue moving northward through the day with weak high pressure over the area. This will leave the area temporarily between systems as a cold front moves through the mid MS River Valley late Monday morning and the TN Valley Monday evening. Monday night the front will move into the Upstate and into the forecast area around daybreak Tuesday. Models continue to differ slightly in regard to moisture however best dynamics remain north of the area with fropa so have continued with dry forecast. Front will move to the coast by early afternoon with high pressure along with colder and drier air returning to the region for Tuesday night. Temperatures through the short term will be low to mid 60s each afternoon with overnight lows Monday night in the mid 40s to around 50 and mid 30s to around 40 under cold advection Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models remain in good agreement through most of the long term with some differences in the handling of a low pressure system for next weekend. High pressure will build into the region Wednesday and keep dry weather in place through Thursday night. The next storm system will develop over the central Plains Thursday night and early Friday then move rapidly eastward through the day Friday. This will result in increasing moisture across the area Thursday night with chances of showers beginning during the day Friday. Although models differ on the position and intensity of the low there is agreement on moisture for showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures through the long term will be near to slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some cirrus clouds moving across the area at the moment but will be thinning out. MVFR fog is developing near rivers and may impact terminals overnight but confidence low. Models are indicating strato-cumulus will advect inland from the coast toward morning. Lamp guidance is indicating potential MVFR ceilings especially at AGS/DNL after 12z. Will forecast VFR ceilings at this time but expect broken strato-cumulus through the day with light northeast winds. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor to moderate flooding on the Congaree River, Enoree River, Great Pee Dee River and Wateree River will continue through the weekend and into next week. Please see river flood products or the AHPS website for information on river flooding at https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=cae && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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