Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 170801 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 401 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Upper energy, a surface trough, and abundant atmospheric moisture will contribute to a good chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today. A weak cold front will slowly slip through the region Wednesday and provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms favoring southern areas. The front will slip a little farther south Thursday, with some drier air entering the region, reducing shower and thunderstorm chances for most areas though southern portions of the CSRA and Midlands will still have a chance of afternoon convection. Another upper trough and surface boundary, along with increasing atmospheric moisture, will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Lingering showers continue across the area early this morning as a weak short wave crosses the region. Should see decreasing coverage from sunrise through midday as the short wave moves east of the area. An upper level trough will amplify over the region today driving a cold front into the western Carolinas late this afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, the atmosphere across our region will remain very moist with PWAT values over 2.0 inches. Models indicate moderate to strong instability this afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance combined with instability and abundant moisture will aid the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. High resolutions also indicate convection developing along a surface trough over the eastern Midlands this afternoon. We can expect locally heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible. Kept temperatures near guidance consensus with highs in the lower 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper troughiness will remain over the E CONUS. Weak cold front progged to move into the northern forecast area (FA) late tonight and Wednesday morning, and slowly slip south through the central and southern FA during the afternoon. Weak upper energy is also progged to roll through as well. High atmospheric moisture values progged to remain Wednesday, at least over central and southern areas, with precipitable water (PW) values around 2 inches, with drier air moving into the northern FA by afternoon. Will trend POPs higher towards the south. The front will slip farther to our south Wednesday night and Thursday towards the coast, with drier air continuing to filter into much of our FA. Little in the way of upper energy indicated Thursday as our region appears to be in a weak upper ridge regime in between upper troughiness offshore and upper trough moving east into the Mississippi Valley. Best moisture progged to remain near the southern coastal plain, but close enough to our S FA to warrant chance POPs there per model consensus.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Models indicate upper trough to move through Friday, with another upper trough digging into the region Saturday through Tuesday. Both GFS and EC indicate upper trough may cutoff to our north. Atmospheric moisture progged to begin increasing Friday, mainly over southern and eastern areas, with best moisture increase indicated for Saturday, along with an accompanying surface boundary. There are some model indications of drier air entering the region Sunday into early next week, though some uncertainty in play. Blended latest model blend with ongoing forecast late in the period.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue early this morning in a moist and unstable atmosphere. Models indicate cig and vsby restrictions developing this morning. Latest observations also showing IFR/LIFR conditions affecting AGS/DNL. Will include MVFR or lower restrictions at all TAF sites through 15Z. Should see convection increasing in coverage this afternoon given moist and unstable conditions coupled with a prefrontal trough across the Midlands. Have indicated VCTS this afternoon. Light winds early this morning will become southwest around 10 knots by midday. Expect gusty winds and heavy rainfall in storms. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the TAF period as a cold front crosses the TAF sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue each day. Can also expect late night/early morning fog/stratus through Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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