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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 271844
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
244 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers or thunderstorms may yet occur today as a cold
front approaches from the west. The best chance of any strong
thunderstorms will be in the eastern CWA. Behind the front, high
pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend with warmer daytime
temperatures. Daily chances of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorm return to the forecast next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms has developed and
is currently moving towards I-95 and the far Eastern Midlands. While
this will likely be our last decent chance of measurable
precipitation today, hi-res models continue to show the potential
for a few showers or thunderstorms passing through the forecast area
this afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front which
is now moving through Northwestern Georgia. Have continued to
incorporate the high-res guidance into the PoPs to show the isolated
nature of this activity. Outside of any convection, skies should be
partly to mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Decreasing cloudiness is expected during the overnight hours
allowing temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 60s. A few
locations in the northwestern forecast area could bottom out in the
upper 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper low will be moving into the northeast Saturday morning with
broad ridging across the central CONUS. The southernmost portion of
the trough axis is expected to extend into the GoM, then cut off
Saturday evening sometime. This will be a turbulent period for upper
level winds, with a lot of variability in direction as the one
system splits into two. Initially, we`ll advect drier air across the
area on Saturday with PWAT dropping below 1" and dry conditions
expected. By Sunday, moisture will start to return on south to
southeasterly flow as we get caught between the low to our south and
weak high pressure over southeastern NC. This will bump PWAT values
back to between 1.25" and 1.5" by the afternoon. Should the
seabreeze front be strong enough to make it to our eastern zones,
there may be some showers and storms which develop, though the
severe threat appears minimal at this time.

Temperatures Saturday will be tempered just a tad by the upper
trough splitting, with highs reaching the upper 80s across the
southeastern Midlands to mid 80s across the northwestern Midlands.
Should be mostly clear Saturday night with good radiational
conditions and lows in the low to mid 60s. It will be slightly
warmer on Sunday with heights recovering, so expect highs in the
upper 80s to around 90 and overnight lows falling into the middle
60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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By Monday, upper ridge will be well established over the eastern
seaboard with troughing across the west. Rex blocking returns with
upper low trapped to our south and southeast under the ridge. This
pattern persists into mid-week, so not much day to day variability
in our sensible weather as the main storm track remains to our
north. Atmospheric moisture remains near normal with PWATs ranging
between 1.1" and 1.4", though these values could be a little higher
late next week. What we will see is daily rainfall chances mainly
confined to the afternoon and early evening hours each day with
highest pops over the eastern CWA closer to the sea-breeze. High
temperatures for this period generally in the upper 80s to low 90s
with overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The low clouds that have been plaguing the terminals this morning
have lifted. Scattered cumulus will pass through the forecast area
for the reminder of the day. Since the main line of convection has
now passed east of all terminals, have removed any mention of
precipitation from the TAFs. Having said that, there is a continued
risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening and forecasts will be adjusted as needed. Winds could be
periodically gusty outside of convection this afternoon. High
pressure builds in tonight resulting in light winds and clear skies
which should continue for the rest of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure and dry air is expected
Saturday through Monday with no restrictions expected.
Afternoon aviation restrictions are possible Monday and Tuesday from
isolated showers or thunderstorms.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$