Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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073 FXUS62 KCAE 161734 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 134 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will extend westward along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. This system combined with upper ridging will help suppress thunderstorms over most of the forecast area through tonight. Moisture will begin to increase ahead of upper troughing Friday. The upper system and associated moisture will remain through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This afternoon: Satellite shows an area of enhanced cu fields across the western cwa and into the Pee Dee/Catawba Regions. Radar only showing an occasional brief shower within those cu fields. These areas reside within higher pwat region, with values approaching 2 inches. With continued heating through the afternoon, expect to see isolated coverage within that region. Can not rule out isolated convection elsewhere either, but those may be more dependent on weak outflow or local convergence boundaries. This is in general agreement with recent high-res models. It will remain hot, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s. Peak heat index values in the upper 90s. Tonight: Any isolated showers/storms will dissipate once again around sunset. Dry conditions the remainder of the night. Skies mostly clear for the majority of the night, but can not rule out the return of patch fog and/or low stratus towards sunrise. Lows should again be in the lower and middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Surface ridging is forecast to continue from the Atlantic westward along the Gulf Coast. North of the ridge lee-side troughing will be in the forecast area. There will be increased moisture associated with upper troughing moving into the area and southwest flow. Expect showers and thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday with the greatest coverage near the times of maximum heating in the afternoon and evening. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast with lows mainly in the low to middle 70s. Friday`s highs will be in the low 90s. Expect slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday due to greater cloud cover, so highs should be in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper troughing will remain over the region on Sunday, although the axis will shift offshore. Showers and thunderstorms can once again be expected, especially during the afternoon and evening. The trough will move out Sunday night, and transitory ridging will be over the area Saturday. Despite the ridge, there will be ample moisture for another round of diurnal convection. Another trough will move in on Tuesday, and a cold front should push through on Thursday. Therefore, unsettled weather will continue. Temperatures will be near normal through this period with highs near 90 and lows in the low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24-hr forecast. Scattered clouds will remain through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Can not rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms across the cwa through the early evening, but due to limited coverage, have left mention out of all tafs at this time. The clouds will diminish with loss of daytime heating this evening. The possibility of late night/early morning fog and/or stratus will exist once again overnight, especially at AGS/OGB. Confidence not high enough to place in tafs due to models not really indicating much coverage overnight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Areas of late night and early morning stratus and fog possible each day. There will also be a chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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