Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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259 FXUS62 KCAE 280019 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 819 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening until a cold front moves through the region. More seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley.
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The weather across the forecast area is tranquil at this hour. However, a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening until a cold front moves through the region. Rain chances will quickly end once the boundary passes through tonight with a wind shift and clearing skies. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough will be over the eastern US through the short term with high pressure and drier air building in behind the front. By late afternoon pwat values are expected to fall under 1 inch and mid level lapse rates will be 6.0 C/Km or less. Surface and low level winds will also be westerly to northwesterly which will lend some downsloping to the drying as well. Little change is expected on Wednesday as high pressure continues to build into the area from the northwest and with the northerly flow continuing slightly cooler air will also persist over the region. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s and on Wednesday the mid 80s to around 90. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s Tuesday night and the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highly amplified upper level pattern will be slow to change through Friday then become more zonal for the weekend. The upper level trough will gradually dig into the eastern US Thursday and early Friday with the axis finally swinging offshore early Friday afternoon. By Saturday the upper ridge which had been building into the Great Lakes region will begin to get suppressed by troughing moving into it resulting in more zonal flow by Sunday. At the surface high pressure will be ridging into the forecast area Thursday with the center overtaking the mid Atlantic States on Saturday then sliding eastward into the Atlantic Basin Sunday. This will keep drier air over the region through Friday with moisture slowly returning to the region over the weekend with slight chance of convection in the CSRA Saturday and the entire forecast area Sunday. With the trough over the eastern US temperatures will be slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly a vfr forecast as a cold front pushes through the region tonight. Main convective activity should remain mostly south of the forecast area, with only an isolated shower or storm possible the next few hours at ags/dnl/ogb. Confidence not high enough to even place in tafs at this time though. In general, taf locations should only see some cirrus from convection south of the area through tonight. Skies clear out by Tuesday morning. Winds remaining mostly out of the west overnight, then turning more northwesterly for Tuesday behind the front. Low chance of some patchy fog early overnight before drier can mix into the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through the end of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...