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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 030843
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
443 AM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving pattern aloft will persist over the next few
days. A warm day is expected today with highs approaching 90
degrees ahead of a cold front that may bring isolated showers
or thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Drier and
cooler air is expected Sunday behind the front and then a
gradual warming trend is expected into the middle of the week
before moisture and rain chances return.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Morning analysis reveals the persistent upper level blocking
pattern with a strong high over southern Canada with a deep low
off the Pacific coast and another over New England. TS Arlene
continues to drift southeastward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Satellite imagery shows generally clear skies over the forecast
area with some patchy mid level clouds over the southeastern
Midlands and stratus clouds evident along the NC coast.

Generally benign weather expected today with weak surface high
pressure over the region. Atmospheric moisture is low with a
gradient in PWATs ranging from around 0.9 inches north to 1.2
inches south. Northeasterly flow today will help usher in some
of the drier air to the north and this should help provide
plenty of sunshine today and combine with 850mb temps around
+16C to +17C to support high temperatures approaching 90
degrees.

The upper trough over New England will move southward in response
the retrograding upper ridge and this will force a weak front
southward toward the forecast area. Isolated to scattered
showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead
of the front in NC and drift southward into the northern and
western Midlands by evening. Instability is limited as is
moisture, so the severe threat also appears limited at this
time. Will carry low pops late afternoon into the evening hours
across the northern and western Midlands. Any lingering showers
should diminish after midnight with the loss of heating. Stratus
is expected to develop and move in from the northeast late
tonight which will limit radiational cooling and expect lows to
be near normal in the lower to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Cold front Sunday morning will be pushing south with lingering
moisture and low clouds hanging on across the forecast area.
Increasing NE winds behind the front will promote stronger
mixing in the low levels while transporting drier air from the
Mid Atlantic. As a result, low clouds will scour out, although a
cumulus field expected to remain in place into the afternoon.
PWATs rapidly decrease into the afternoon, falling below an inch
across the NE portion of the forecast area with dry weather
continuing. Temperatures fall behind the front, between 5 to 10
degrees lower than today, with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s. Lows overnight drop into the upper 50s to near 60.

Well below normal PWATs Monday with forecast soundings
indicating deep layer dry air with the flow pattern generally
out of the north. While temperatures will remain below normal,
increased sun and airmass modification will allow temperatures
to recover with highs in the mid 80s. Lows also moderate with
low temperatures in the mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Benign weather pattern will continue through the long term
period with ensemble means favoring an upper low near New
England with general troughing. This will continue to support
temperatures near to slightly below seasonal average as this
upper low retrogrades and forcing a deepening trough over the
forecast area. With the flow pattern generally out of the N/NW,
moisture will continue to remain below average with NAEFS
indicating PWATs will be near the 10th percentile. A bit of
moisture convergence will be possible Thursday with the highest
chances for showers but coverage still expected to be limited at
this time. Otherwise, diurnal convection chances will be low
each day through the long term period.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period except
for possible vsby restrictions during the predawn hours at AGS.

Satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies but isolated to
scattered lower clouds are skirting the eastern Midlands. Light
and variable to near calm winds through sunrise then winds will
pick up from the northeast around 6 to 10 knots with some gusts
around 15 knots through the afternoon. Cannot rule out some
patchy IFR vsbys at AGS due to radiational cooling with mainly
clear skies and low dewpoint depression. A front will slide
south through the region this evening and isolated showers or
even a thunderstorm is possible but mainly staying north of the
terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A relatively dry air mass will keep
chances for significant restrictions low through the weekend. A
front may move into the area early next week but confidence in
restrictions is low.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
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