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073
FXUS62 KCAE 161734
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
134 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure in the Atlantic will extend westward along
the Gulf Coast through the weekend. This system combined with
upper ridging will help suppress thunderstorms over most of the
forecast area through tonight. Moisture will begin to increase
ahead of upper troughing Friday. The upper system and associated
moisture will remain through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: Satellite shows an area of enhanced cu fields
across the western cwa and into the Pee Dee/Catawba Regions.
Radar only showing an occasional brief shower within those cu
fields. These areas reside within higher pwat region, with values
approaching 2 inches. With continued heating through the
afternoon, expect to see isolated coverage within that region.
Can not rule out isolated convection elsewhere either, but those
may be more dependent on weak outflow or local convergence
boundaries. This is in general agreement with recent high-res
models. It will remain hot, with highs mainly in the lower to
middle 90s. Peak heat index values in the upper 90s.

Tonight: Any isolated showers/storms will dissipate once again
around sunset. Dry conditions the remainder of the night. Skies
mostly clear for the majority of the night, but can not rule out
the return of patch fog and/or low stratus towards sunrise.
Lows should again be in the lower and middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface ridging is forecast to continue from the Atlantic
westward along the Gulf Coast. North of the ridge lee-side
troughing will be in the forecast area. There will be increased
moisture associated with upper troughing moving into the area
and southwest flow. Expect showers and thunderstorms both
Friday and Saturday with the greatest coverage near the times of
maximum heating in the afternoon and evening. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast with lows mainly
in the low to middle 70s. Friday`s highs will be in the low
90s. Expect slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday due to
greater cloud cover, so highs should be in the upper 80s to
around 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper troughing will remain over the region on Sunday, although
the axis will shift offshore. Showers and thunderstorms can once
again be expected, especially during the afternoon and evening.
The trough will move out Sunday night, and transitory ridging
will be over the area Saturday. Despite the ridge, there will be
ample moisture for another round of diurnal convection. Another
trough will move in on Tuesday, and a cold front should push
through on Thursday. Therefore, unsettled weather will continue.
Temperatures will be near normal through this period with highs
near 90 and lows in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the 24-hr forecast.

Scattered clouds will remain through the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Can not rule out isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the cwa through the early evening, but due
to limited coverage, have left mention out of all tafs at this
time. The clouds will diminish with loss of daytime heating this
evening. The possibility of late night/early morning fog and/or
stratus will exist once again overnight, especially at AGS/OGB.
Confidence not high enough to place in tafs due to models not
really indicating much coverage overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Areas of late night and early
morning stratus and fog possible each day. There will also be a
chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$