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262
FXUS62 KCAE 270048
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
848 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier air and lower rain chances will move into the area
Saturday and remain over the filter in over the weekend into
early next week, before deeper moisture and better rain chances
return. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal
through early next week, before returning closer to normal by
the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Convective activity diminishing

Convective activity across the are continues to diminish with
sunset however showers and thunderstorms continue in the
Upstate and east central GA. With sunset and loss of heating
expect the convection to continue dissipating however with
surface boundaries from earlier convection there is the
potential for a few new cells to develop as the boundaries
collide. By the early morning hours a weak surface boundary will
be working through the forecast area from the north bringing
slightly drier air to the area. This will help end any remaining
showers however skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy
through daybreak. Overnight lows will mainly be in the lower
70s.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Noticeably drier air moves into the region this
weekend with lower rain chances.

Upper level trough will push through the mid-Atlantic, driving a
frontal boundary south of the area. This will usher in drier air,
with PW values dropping to less than 1.5" in the Columbia area by
Saturday afternoon. The exception will be the CSRA where PW may
remain closer to 1.7" much of the weekend. This should keep rain
chances mainly south and west of the I-26 corridor, and any showers
or thunderstorms will be isolated or scattered in nature.
Temperatures expected to be slightly below normal this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Key Message:

- A more typical summer weather pattern over the
region with moisture returning to the region.

Upper ridge becomes more zonal into early next week as deeper
moisture makes a return to the region. PW values return to just
shy  of 2" by Monday afternoon, with temperatures beginning a
gradual warming trend. A few relatively weak mid-level
shortwaves moving through the flow may be the main impetus for
shower and thunderstorm development, which shouldn`t be that
difficult as temperatures return to normal. Overall, convection
should be relatively unorganized with a typical summertime
scattered rain chances.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions through much of the period with MVFR to IFR
during the early morning hours.

Scattered low clouds remain across the area with convection
moving southeast of the terminals and an isolated shower or two
in the Upstate. Through daybreak the main concern is the
potential for stratus and fog to develop. A surface boundary
will drop southward through the area tonight and Saturday
bringing slightly lower dewpoints to the area. With the rain
earlier today and plenty of surface moisture expect stratus to
develop over the area tonight with the greatest potential over
CAE/CUB/OGB. Restrictions will gradually erode after sunrise
with the remainder of the period expected VFR. Chances of
convection remain too low to include for 16z onward however the
greatest chance would be at AGS/DNL. Winds through the period
will be northeasterly at 9 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions
Sunday. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions Monday through Wednesday as moisture
returns to the area.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$