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092
FXUS62 KCAE 030022
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
822 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure along the Southeast coast will be in control of
the weather across the region tonight. Once again there will be
the potential for some patchy fog and stratus during the early
morning and sunrise hours on Friday. The area of high pressure
will be moving away from the area on Friday allowing for more
moisture to move into the region. Warm conditions expected to
continue for Friday before rain chances steadily increase late
Friday evening into Saturday. Deep moisture convergence
coinciding with an upper level trough will drive widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday. Lingering moisture
and little changes aloft will yield further shower-storm chances
Sunday through Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Fair. Isolated showers have dissipated with loss of heating.
Some increase in high level clouds possible late tonight, but
otherwise similar regime to previous days, with possibility of
late night fog/stratus developing, mainly over the southern half
of the forecast area where dewpoints are higher.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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After some patchy fog Friday morning, a generally dry and warm
day is expected, at least into the afternoon, as an upper ridge
remains overhead and a high pressure sits just offshore. The
upper ridge is forecast to stay generally in place through the
short term; however, a shortwave disturbance is expected to move
through the region. This feature brings increasing chances for
showers and some isolated thunderstorms beginning Friday
afternoon to the upper CSRA and gradually spreading eastward
overnight and into Saturday. Some stronger moisture convergence
on Saturday brings higher chances for more widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms to the area, but severe weather is
not likely due to a general lack of sufficient instability and
wind shear. With extensive cloud cover and more widespread
showers, temperatures Saturday are expected to be closer to
average or a little below average.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A summer-like pattern is expected to remain over the area for
much of the long term as the upper ridge stays generally in
place. A series of shortwaves moving through the broader flow
brings unsettled weather through midweek, with daily chances for
showers and embedded thunderstorms. The pattern begins to settle
down for the latter portions of the week ahead, with afternoon
highs expected to be well above average at the end of the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions through the most of the period with restrictions
expected during the early morning and sunrise hours.

High pressure along the coast this evening will gradually move
offshore later tonight and into Friday. The radar shows a nice
sea breeze moving northwest this evening. This will produce a
brief period of winds from the south-southeast along with a few
cumulus. Later this evening cumulus will diminish however with
the low level moisture remaining high. Expect some fog and
stratus to again develop during the early morning and sunrise
hours. Have included mention of MVFR fog at CAE/CUB/DNL/OGB
with IFR/LIFR at AGS. Expect the fog and stratus to mix out
around 13z with the remainder of the period VFR. Winds from 13z
through the end of the period will be southerly around 5 to 7 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Late night/early morning fog possible through the period.
Increased potential for showers and thunderstorms Friday evening
through Tuesday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$