National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KCAE 151814
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
214 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridging will build over the
southeastern states during the first part of the week resulting
in warm and dry conditions. The ridge will weaken mid-week as a
pair of cold fronts approach the area bringing the potential
for showers and thunderstorms by late in the week. The front may
stall near the area late in the weekend with cooler
temperatures and scattered showers. Temperatures will be above
to well above normal through most of the week then cooler
conditions by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There is next to nothing going on weather-wise across the forecast
area. Shortwave that brought clouds overnight in the CSRA has since
moved away from the forecast area. We are now cloudless across the
forecast area, and temperatures have skyrocketed up into the mid 80s
for many. This is occurring between persistent westerly 850 hPa warm
air advection, with 850 hPa temps around 14C-16C. We are already 86F
here at CAE as of this writing, so there is a decent chance that we
actually approach 90F this afternoon. But aside from this, there is
very little to actually talk about weather wise. High pressure will
continue to slowly meander eastward to our south, and most should
top out around 85F-88F. Overnight, some passing clouds are expected
as the ridge continues to build but these are largely expected to
not impact temps. A stout low-level jet is expected to develop,
which will help hold surface winds up in most of the area. So expect
temps around 58F-62F most places.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...Upper ridge centered over the Gulf will continue to
extend into the region. Surface ridge remains centered south of
the area and offshore. Deep low pressure system in the north-
central Plains moving northeast. The upper heights over the area
rise a bit although a short wave trough appears to move through
the area during the morning and early afternoon. Expect an
increase in mid level clouds, but model soundings show dry low
levels and subsidence. The air mass is weakly unstable in the
north Midlands in the afternoon where precipitable water is a
little higher, slightly above 1 inch. But HREF guidance shows a
few showers staying to the north across North Carolina where
ridge is weaker/closer to a "back door" front and higher
precipitable water. This front will lift back north as a warm
front. Warm advection appears weak and 850mb temps about the
same as today. Despite clouds, max temps should be only slightly
cooler. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday night...The ridge axis shifts to the east overnight as
mature cyclone in the upper midwest moves toward the Great Lakes
region. Additional weak short waves overnight, and expect mid
level clouds. Although a sprinkle is possible, low level remain
dry. With clouds, lows in the the low 60s.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Upper ridge continues to weaken
and flow becomes more zonal. Expect mid level short waves to
move through but moisture mainly mid level. Modest increase in
low level moisture. Instability remains southwest of the
region, across the Deep South. Lapse rates are unimpressive.
Temps probably slightly cooler than Tuesday given increased
cloudiness despite weak warm advection. Overnight low temps
continue to moderate, low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The ensemble guidance is trending toward well above normal
temperatures early in the period with a high probability (about
> 70% at CAE/AGS of reaching 90 degrees Thursday and continued
much warmer than normal Friday. Weak front/trough in the
Upstate early Thursday, near the area in the afternoon could be
a focus for a few showers and thunderstorms. Air mass may be a
little more unstable although moisture still appears somewhat
limited overall, but guidance pops remain quite low so will
continue a dry forecast. A much more robust cold front will be
moving east of the Mississippi Valley and approaching the area
by Saturday. Moisture and overall instability increases Friday
and with continued short wave triggers, expect at least isolated
afternoon showers/thunderstorms. GFS ensemble shows relatively
high probability of CAPE > 500 J/kg by Friday afternoon, CMC and
ECMWF ensembles suggest weaker instability.

Ensembles continue to show an anomalously deep trough in
southern Canada/Great Lakes moving east over the weekend with
near zonal flow over the Carolinas/Georgia. Short wave trough
moving from the upper Midwest southeast across the Ohio Valley
should push the main cold front into the area over the weekend.
So pops should come up to good chance by Sunday. The ensembles
suggesting front may slide south of CAE with much cooler temps
Sunday. The NBM max Temps Sunday are in the low to mid 70s most
areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across the area.

Dry weather continues across the area, with high pressure shifting
across the Florida Peninsula. Sunny skies continue, with some
passing clouds through the period expected. Winds are out of the
west and southwest this afternoon, with some gusts upwards of 20
knots occurring. Winds will diminish across the forecast area this
afternoon and evening. Clear skies are expected overnight, and a
strong low-level jet is likely to develop again. There is a chance
that we see LLWS criteria met, but given surface winds will be
between 3 and 6 knots overnight, the chance is low enough to keep
out of the TAF. Rinse and repeat tomorrow, with VFR skies and winds
5-10 knots out of the southwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...