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246
FXUS62 KCAE 071638
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1238 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A lull in thunderstorm activity is anticipated for midweek,
with increasing chances of showers and storms towards the end of
the week. Potential for strong to severe storms will exist on
Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Drier conditions return for the weekend. Expect generally above
average temperatures through the latter half of the week before
transitioning to near or slightly below average during the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A shortwave is now east of the area with ridging building behind it.
Cloud cover in the form of cumulus is beginning to increase as
temperatures climb. Already into the low to mid 80s across much of
the area with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s - starting to feel a
lot like summer.

The ridging aloft will allow for above normal high temperatures this
afternoon with values in the mid 80s to low 90s. PWAT values from
1.3" to 1.5" are still above normal for early May, and will support
convective development as the air mass destabilizes this afternoon.
Expect fewer showers and thunderstorms today than yesterday, with
activity limited to the northern midlands along the SC/NC border as
another weak wave passes north of the state. Convection will
diminish in the evening with loss of heating. Expect lows well above
normal in the mid 60s to low 70s tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Rain chances for Wednesday
should be slightly lower than previous days due to the presence
of a warm nose aloft around 700 mb still hindering development.
This warmer air aloft does seem weaker across the northern
Midlands, and slightly stronger across the southern Midlands and
CSRA. Best rain chances should be over the north, and if any
activity can get going through the afternoon, can not rule out
an isolated strong to severe storm. Wednesday night may see an
MCS moving through the central Appalachians before weakening
late Wednesday night as it approaches the cwa from the
northwest. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in
the lower 90s.


Thursday and Thursday night: This still appears to be the period
with the highest chance for any severe weather. Approaching
upper trough will begin to lower heights aloft through the day,
and the previous warm nose aloft will be eroding. In addition,
the decaying MCS early Thursday should be putting out a surface
boundary that will eventually stall out across the cwa.
Guidance is showing the potential for additional shower and
thunderstorm development during the afternoon hours across the
upstate of SC on the western edge of the MCS front, with the
activity then advancing southeastward and expanding across the
central Midlands Thursday evening and into the night. Late
Thursday night will also see a surface cold front approaching
the region from the west, and expect to see additional scattered
development of strong storms along the front as it approaches
late. SPC does have the forecast are in a Day 3 Slight Risk,
with the main threats being damaging winds and hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Front moves through on Friday, with some shower and thunderstorm
activity still possible through the day until the deeper
moisture moves out and drier air begins to move into the region
by Friday night. Cooler and more tranquil weather is then forecast
for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions are likely with winds picking up from the southwest
to around 8 to 10 knots with some gusts approaching 20 knots. Low
confidence of any convection at/near the terminals so no mention in
the TAFs. Any convection will diminish in the evening with loss of
heating. With drier air in place tonight, widespread ceiling
restrictions appear less likely. However shallow moisture could
still lead to fog at AGS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Active weather with mainly diurnal
convection each day through Friday. There`s potential for more
widespread severe storms on Thursday. Brief CIG/VSBY restrictions
and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorms that affect the
terminals.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$