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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 260421
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1221 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south across the region tonight then
continue offshore on Saturday. High pressure will build across
the north Saturday night then slide into the Maritimes on
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
12:21 am update: A cold front is moving south across northern
Maine and will usher a cooler and much drier air mass into
northern portions of the forecast area overnight. There are
still some showers across central portions of the FA with an
isolated thunderstorm in southern Aroostook County; but
otherwise the thunderstorm activity has died down. There are
also a few showers that are heading toward parts of Hancock
County. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast elements,
based mostly on the latest observations and radar trends.

Orgnl Disc: A cold front pushing south across the region will
produce some thunderstorms this evening. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be across central areas from northern
Somerset county east across central Piscataquis, northern
Penobscot, Southeastern Aroostook and northern Washington
counties. Winds will be strong aloft and any thunderstorm may
contain strong gusty winds and hail early this evening.
Thunderstorms should dissipate around mid evening. Showers will
push south across the Downeast area late tonight into early
Saturday morning as the front continues south. High pressure
building across the north will bring clearing from north to
south on Saturday. By the end of the day Saturday, most of the
area will be mostly sunny with partial sunshine along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will pass to the north of the region Sunday
resulting in dry conditions. A cold front is expected to
approach from the west Monday with an increase in clouds
followed by showers later in the afternoon. More wide spread
showers are expected Monday Evening into early Tuesday as the
front moves through the region along with an upper level low
pressure system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west later in the day
Tuesday then move to the east of New England for Wednesday and
Thursday with dry conditions expected on both days. Temperatures
are expected to warm up significantly in the return flow on the
back side of the high thursday with afternoon highs getting into
the 80s in all areas except along the coast. Low pressure is
then expected to approach from the south Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
NEAR TERM: Northern areas should remain VFR tonight and
Saturday with the brief exception of some patchy fog early this
morning. Downeast areas will drop to MVFR in spots late tonight
into early Saturday morning as lower clouds with the cold front
move across. Conditions Downeast should return to VFR during
the midday and afternoon.

SHORT TERM: VFR Conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. MVFR
conditions are expected Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected
Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 940 PM Update...We lowered the SCA for our inner
bay/harbor MZ with winds and seas below thresholds here, but
xtnd the SCA ovr our outer MZs050-051 msly for seas which will
take a little longer into the late ngt (4am) before subsiding
below 5 ft.

Orgnl Disc...Winds should diminish later tonight into Saturday
as cold front approaches and crosses the waters.

SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds.
For Waves: The primary wave system Sunday and Monday is expected
to be longer period southeasterly swell (2-3 feet/7-8 seconds)
with a secondary northeasterly wind wave group around 2 feet.
The long period swell is expected to subside on Tuesday and
Wednesday to around 1 foot. Wind wave will go off-shore later
Tuesday into Wednesday. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ050-051.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/VJN
Short Term...Mignone
Long Term...Mignone
Aviation...CB/VJN/Mignone
Marine...CB/VJN/Mignone