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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 021650
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1150 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will build in from the west today into Wednesday
while strong low pressure remains across the Maritimes. A cold front
will cross the region Thursday. High pressure will build toward the
area Friday into the weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1130AM update...The strong winds are creating serious issues
across the area today. In Aroostook County, the blowing snow are
resulting whiteouts are causing numerous accidents...probably
the most since a similar blowing snow event a few years ago.
Some roads have been closed. Updated a Special Weather Statement
to highlight the danger.  Bitter cold wind chills continue and
have extended the advisory into the afternoon for northern zones.
Further south, power outages are the issue due to winds gusting
over 50 mph, and again, the bitter cold makes it a dangerous
situation for both utility crews and those without power. Over
the coastal waters, extended the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning
into the afternoon with the ongoing Storm Warning.

Previous discussion...
Powerful low pressure will remain to our east over the Gulf of St.
Lawrence today as high pressure builds to our southwest. The tight
gradient between the low to our east and the high to our west will
produce very strong gusty northwesterly winds today. Winds will
become aligned through a deep layer of the atmosphere allowing some
mixing to bring down strong wind gusts. Blowing snow will be an
issue across the north. Most of the blowing snow will be from
the snow showers that fell overnight. However, across the far
north the snow that fell on Monday may still be soft enough to
blow in the high winds. Bitter cold wind chills will require
wind chill warnings in the northwest with wind chill advisories
in the east. Otherwise, today will be mostly cloudy with some
addition snow showers backing into the area over the north and a
sunny to partly cloudy sky Downeast. Tonight will remain breezy
although the winds will decrease a bit. The sky will be mostly
clear as the Maritimes low backs away. Some clouds may increase
Downeast late tonight as a weak disturbance slides in from the
northwest. High pressure will build to our south Wednesday into
Wednesday night as the big low in the Maritimes gradually
weakens and lifts away. This will allow for mostly clear
conditions with some moderation on Wednesday and lighter winds
Wednesday into Wednesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion -- &&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued influence from the upper low in NE Canada will bring
a series of disturbances across the region both Thursday and
Friday. The combination of the gusty cold WNW wind off the open
St. Lawrence along w/some weak mid level forcing will lead to
some snow showers and periods light snow streamers. This will
mainly be across the n and w. Not expecting any significant as
far as snowfall accumulation. Just a trace to maybe a couples of
tenths at best. The ECMWF and GFS do show 925 mbs winds of
around 30 kts. This could allow for some patchy blowing snow,
especially across the open areas. Temps both days will be
averaging some 5-10 degrees below normal for early March.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The influence from that upper low continues right into Sunday
w/the nw flow beginning to weaken by Sunday. A fairly sharp
upper trof is forecast to slide across the region later Friday
night into Saturday. This feature does appear that it could
contain enough moisture, and w/some forcing to deliver a round
of snow showers to the northern part of the region. The long
range guidance shows this potential including the Canadian
Global and GFS. The 00Z ECMWF was much drier and kept any
measurable QPF n and w of the Maine border. Given the
aforementioned setup, decided to include the mention of some
snow showers later Friday into Saturday across Aroostook and
Northern Somerset Counties. The flow begins to weaken Saturday
night into Sunday as high pres ridge to the w begins to push to
the e. Continued below normal into the last part of the weekend,
but a moderation in temps looks to be in the offing by Monday as
that ridge pushes across the region.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Today: MVFR to occasionally IFR in snow showers and blowing snow
north. VFR Downeast. Very strong gusty NW winds.

Tonight: VFR. Gusty NW winds.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds.

Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday into Friday...It looks like conditions will be mainly
VFR. NW winds 10-20 kt w/gusts over 30 kt at times. There is
potential for some MVFR/IFR in snow showers n of KHUL.

Friday night into Saturday...Predominately VFR w/WNW winds
10-15 kt w/gusts over 25 kts. Northern TAF sites could see
TEMPO MVFR/IFR in some snow showers or periods of light snow.

Saturday night into Sunday...VFR for all terminals. WNW wind
10 kt w/gusts to near 20 kt.
&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update...extended the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning into the
afternoon at 4PM.

NEAR TERM: A storm warning and a freezing spray warning will remain
up today for strong gusty and bitter cold NW winds. The winds
will diminish to a gale tonight. Some freezing spray will
continue overnight. Winds will diminish to a SCA Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM:
Thu into Fri...NW winds 20-25 kt w/gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4-6 ft
on Thu dropping off to 4-5 ft by Fri afternoon.

Fri night into Sat...NW winds 15-20 kts becoming W on Sat.
Gusts to 25 kts expected. Seas 4-5 ft.

Sat night into Sun...W winds 10-15 kts becoming NW by Sun
morning. Seas 3-4 ft Sat night subsiding to 2-3 ft by Sun.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MEZ001>006-010-031.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.
     Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$

Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt