Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 021650 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1150 AM EST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will build in from the west today into Wednesday while strong low pressure remains across the Maritimes. A cold front will cross the region Thursday. High pressure will build toward the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1130AM update...The strong winds are creating serious issues across the area today. In Aroostook County, the blowing snow are resulting whiteouts are causing numerous accidents...probably the most since a similar blowing snow event a few years ago. Some roads have been closed. Updated a Special Weather Statement to highlight the danger. Bitter cold wind chills continue and have extended the advisory into the afternoon for northern zones. Further south, power outages are the issue due to winds gusting over 50 mph, and again, the bitter cold makes it a dangerous situation for both utility crews and those without power. Over the coastal waters, extended the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning into the afternoon with the ongoing Storm Warning. Previous discussion... Powerful low pressure will remain to our east over the Gulf of St. Lawrence today as high pressure builds to our southwest. The tight gradient between the low to our east and the high to our west will produce very strong gusty northwesterly winds today. Winds will become aligned through a deep layer of the atmosphere allowing some mixing to bring down strong wind gusts. Blowing snow will be an issue across the north. Most of the blowing snow will be from the snow showers that fell overnight. However, across the far north the snow that fell on Monday may still be soft enough to blow in the high winds. Bitter cold wind chills will require wind chill warnings in the northwest with wind chill advisories in the east. Otherwise, today will be mostly cloudy with some addition snow showers backing into the area over the north and a sunny to partly cloudy sky Downeast. Tonight will remain breezy although the winds will decrease a bit. The sky will be mostly clear as the Maritimes low backs away. Some clouds may increase Downeast late tonight as a weak disturbance slides in from the northwest. High pressure will build to our south Wednesday into Wednesday night as the big low in the Maritimes gradually weakens and lifts away. This will allow for mostly clear conditions with some moderation on Wednesday and lighter winds Wednesday into Wednesday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Continued influence from the upper low in NE Canada will bring a series of disturbances across the region both Thursday and Friday. The combination of the gusty cold WNW wind off the open St. Lawrence along w/some weak mid level forcing will lead to some snow showers and periods light snow streamers. This will mainly be across the n and w. Not expecting any significant as far as snowfall accumulation. Just a trace to maybe a couples of tenths at best. The ECMWF and GFS do show 925 mbs winds of around 30 kts. This could allow for some patchy blowing snow, especially across the open areas. Temps both days will be averaging some 5-10 degrees below normal for early March. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The influence from that upper low continues right into Sunday w/the nw flow beginning to weaken by Sunday. A fairly sharp upper trof is forecast to slide across the region later Friday night into Saturday. This feature does appear that it could contain enough moisture, and w/some forcing to deliver a round of snow showers to the northern part of the region. The long range guidance shows this potential including the Canadian Global and GFS. The 00Z ECMWF was much drier and kept any measurable QPF n and w of the Maine border. Given the aforementioned setup, decided to include the mention of some snow showers later Friday into Saturday across Aroostook and Northern Somerset Counties. The flow begins to weaken Saturday night into Sunday as high pres ridge to the w begins to push to the e. Continued below normal into the last part of the weekend, but a moderation in temps looks to be in the offing by Monday as that ridge pushes across the region. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Today: MVFR to occasionally IFR in snow showers and blowing snow north. VFR Downeast. Very strong gusty NW winds. Tonight: VFR. Gusty NW winds. Wednesday: VFR. NW winds. Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds. SHORT TERM: Thursday into Friday...It looks like conditions will be mainly VFR. NW winds 10-20 kt w/gusts over 30 kt at times. There is potential for some MVFR/IFR in snow showers n of KHUL. Friday night into Saturday...Predominately VFR w/WNW winds 10-15 kt w/gusts over 25 kts. Northern TAF sites could see TEMPO MVFR/IFR in some snow showers or periods of light snow. Saturday night into Sunday...VFR for all terminals. WNW wind 10 kt w/gusts to near 20 kt. && .MARINE...
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Update...extended the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning into the afternoon at 4PM. NEAR TERM: A storm warning and a freezing spray warning will remain up today for strong gusty and bitter cold NW winds. The winds will diminish to a gale tonight. Some freezing spray will continue overnight. Winds will diminish to a SCA Wednesday into Wednesday night. SHORT TERM: Thu into Fri...NW winds 20-25 kt w/gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4-6 ft on Thu dropping off to 4-5 ft by Fri afternoon. Fri night into Sat...NW winds 15-20 kts becoming W on Sat. Gusts to 25 kts expected. Seas 4-5 ft. Sat night into Sun...W winds 10-15 kts becoming NW by Sun morning. Seas 3-4 ft Sat night subsiding to 2-3 ft by Sun.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MEZ001>006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. Wind Chill Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ001>006-010-031. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052. Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Bloomer/Hewitt Marine...Bloomer/Hewitt

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