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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 301802
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
202 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the north today and crest over
the area Saturday. Low pressure will pass well south of the
region today. High pressure will move east on Sunday as a warm
front lifts into the area. A cold front will cross the region
Sunday night followed by low pressure then a secondary cold
front Monday night. High pressure will approach on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:58 PM Update: Minor adjustments made to match current
observations. Radar continues to clear out, limiting the threat
for showers across the coast, and PoPs were reduced slightly to
match. As the low pressure to the south continues to pull away,
winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon.

Previous discussion:
The post tropical remains of once Hurricane Zeta are visible on
satellite pictures passing well to the south of Nova Scotia
early this morning. Another low of non tropical origins is
moving off the southern Delmarva and will track along a strong
baroclinic zone on a track just a bit south of Zeta`s remains. A
broad ridge of high pressure covers the central U.S. this
morning and it will build east and into western New England late
tonight.

As far as the sensible weather, today will have a good deal of
sunshine across the Crown of Maine. To the south, morning clouds and
a little leftover light rain/snow along and near the coast
through mid morning will give way to gradual clearing this
afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid
30s across the Saint John Valley to near 40 degrees along the
coast. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the teens
north to mid 20s along the coast. A few spots in the broad
northwest valleys where the lower levels should fully decouple
after midnight could bottom out near 10F by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure cresting just south of the area Saturday will bring a
sunny, dry and cold day with a light westerly breeze. The high will
slide to the east just south of Nova Scotia Saturday night as a
return southerly flow increases behind the high. Clouds will
increase on Sunday along with an increasing southerly wind ahead of
an occluded front pushing east ahead of a trough of low pressure
approaching from the Great Lakes. The rapid approach of the front,
and the direction from which it is approaching, will mean it will
not be able to gain much moisture ahead of it. However, some
periods of rain are likely Sunday night with the best chance for
rainfall coming late Sunday night as low pressure attempts to
consolidate over our region along a triple point low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will lift up to our northeast on Monday pulling a
strong cold front across the area. This will bring gusty west
northwest winds and rain showers possibly changing to a period of
snow showers. The new GFS is showing a strong undercutting cold
front coupled with focused dynamic lift from the upper trough
sliding across the area and gives more than an inch of QPF over
the north. Some heavier showers in the wrap around of the low
and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder would be possible if
this scenario occurs, with precipitation changing over to snow
before tapering off in the wrap around. The new ECMWF is also
showing the potential for rain changing to a period of snow with
increasing wind on Monday as the storm organizes and lifts
northeast pulling colder air in its wake. A secondary weather
disturbance will slide nearby to our south Monday night,
possibly with some light snow or flurries in the highlands and
in southern areas. This will be followed by a reinforcing surge
of cold air on Tuesday with gusty northwest winds. High pressure
will build to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
return flow behind the high lifts a warm front north across the
area. This may bring some patchy light snow or snow showers to
northern areas Wednesday morning followed by a breezy and milder
afternoon Wednesday afternoon with a return of sunshine. By
Thursday a broad ridge of high pressure to our south will extend
from the southeastern states out into the Atlantic. This will
bring a sunny and mild day Thursday as we stay in the
southwesterly flow north of the high. Friday will remain mild
ahead of a new cold front. This front may bring some spotty
showers over the north during the midday and afternoon Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected over the next 24 hours. Gusts Downeast
will diminish into the evening hours. High clouds will clear
overnight. Light winds and clear skies will persist Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday: VFR. Light W wind.

Saturday night: VFR. Light S wind.

Sunday: VFR dropping to MVFR. Increasing S wind. SSW wind shear.

Sunday night: IFR in some rain. S wind. SSW wind shear.

Monday: MVFR to IFR. Strong gusty NW winds. Chance of rain showers
changing to snow showers north.

Monday night: VFR. NW wind.

Tuesday: VFR. Gusty NW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gales warnings are in effect through noon today on
the coastal waters and a small craft advisory on the intra-
coastal. Gusts of 30 to 35 knots have been observed this
morning at the eastern Maine Shelf and Jonesport buoys, and
with a second low following closely behind the remains of Zeta
felt that it was prudent to extend the gales a few more hours.
At the expiration of the gale warning, a small craft advisory
will likely be needed until around midnight tonight on the
coastal waters, and the SCA on the intra-coastal will likely
need to be extended through at least early this evening.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will likely be needed Sunday into Monday for S winds
gusting up to 30 kt Sunday, becoming west gusting up to 30 kt
Sunday night into Monday. A SCA will likely be needed Monday
night into Tuesday for gusty W to NW winds.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...AStrauser/CB
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/CB/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/CB/Bloomer