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413
FXUS61 KCAR 260839
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
339 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area today followed by weak high
pressure tonight. A stronger cold front will approach Monday into
Monday night and cross the area Tuesday morning. Arctic high
pressure will build into the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night. A clipper low will track across the southern part of the
area Wednesday followed by high pressure Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A northern stream upper level shortwave is approaching the area
this morning with an accompanying surface cold front. This
system has very little moisture with PWs remaining below 0.2 in.
There is strong low level warm advection ahead of the front
which will wipe out the shallow inversion in place. The WAA will propel
high temps towards the mid to upper 20s across the north. As
the warmer air works into the area this morning, some light snow
showers are expected to move across the area with accumulations
from a dusting to an inch...aided by high SLRs. Accumulations
are most likely in Aroostook County. The warm low levels will
destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon with fairly steep mid-
level lapse rates and perhaps up to 50J/kg of surface-based
instability. This will spark another round of snow showers ahead
of the cold front this afternoon. Given potential instability
up to H7 or H6, cannot rule out a quick inch accumulation from a
stronger snow shower. Once again, that will be most likely in
Aroostook County or the North Woods.

For the Bangor area and Hancock County, morning clouds will give
way to some afternoon sunshine as temperatures climb above the
freezing mark.

The warmer air will be very short-lived as the cold front sweeps
across the area this afternoon with temperatures dropping off
rapidly this evening and tonight. Strong cold air advection is
noted at through 850mb. Even with fairly steady winds tonight
and not much of a radiation inversion, temperatures will again
drop off towards the single digits to around 10F tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will be south of our area Monday morning as a
strong clipper low tracks across James Bay Canada well to our
north. We will be on the southern edge of this low with a strong
gusty southwesterly wind and a mostly cloudy day north and
mostly sunny day Downeast. The gusty southwesterly wind will
continue Monday night as the clipper low, crossing Quebec to our
north, draws a strong cold front toward our region. Some snow
showers will be possible across the north Monday night.
Otherwise, Monday night will be mostly cloudy and windy across
the area.

The cold front will press into our region early Tuesday
morning. The front will bring strong surface convergence, snow
showers, and possibly an isolated snow squall followed by an
abrupt drop in temperatures. Highs will probably be reached at
dawn before temps plunge through the teens then single digits
north and the 20s then teens Downeast. Temperatures may drop to
near zero north before the end of the day Tuesday. Strong gusty
northwesterly winds will bring patchy blowing snow over open
areas and bitter wind chills on Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tuesday night will turn out mostly clear and very cold as a surface
ridge of high pressure builds over. The gusty northwesterly breeze
will continue in the evening. Winds will diminish overnight and
possibly decouple in some central areas by dawn Wednesday allowing
for some very cold valley lows.

Our focus on Wednesday will be on a clipper low sliding east,
southeast from the Great Lakes region. This has the potential to
bring a period of light snow with the best chance of
accumulating snow across the south. The ECMWF, and to a lesser
extent the Canadian, are a bit more generous with the low
bringing a couple inches of snow across most of the region. The
GFS, however, slides the low well offshore only bringing a
chance for some snow across southern parts of the area on
Wednesday.

High pressure will return Wednesday night into Thursday bringing
more bitter cold conditions under a clear to partly cloudy sky.

Long range models are showing the potential for another small
clipper, but differ considerably on the timing. The GFS carries a
weak wave across the area Thursday night while the ECMWF carries a
clipper across Friday night. Both of these systems look very light
with only a dusting to an inch of snow possible.

High pressure will return for the weekend with a continuation of
cold and dry conditions.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Expect prevailing MVFR cigs to develop north of
HUL/MLT/GNR this morning with tempo IFR vis in snow showers.
Conditions will lift to VFR this evening and tonight.

For BGR and BHB, expect VFR except a possible brief snow shower
later this morning.

South to southwest winds will increase this morning from 5 to 10
kt towards 10 to 15 kt...and then shift to the west with a cold
front this afternoon. A few gusts up to 25 kt can be expected
for locations such as GNR this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR south, VFR to MVFR north. Strong gusty SW winds.

Monday night...VFR south, MVFR north, possibly dropping to IFR at
times in snow showers or snow squalls very late at night. Strong
gusty SW winds.

Tuesday...VFR south, possibly briefly MVFR in snow shower early.
MVFR to IFR north becoming VFR except in patchy blowing snow. Gusty
NW winds.

Tuesday night...VFR. Gusty W winds diminishing.

Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR south. VFR north, possibly dropping
to MVFR. N winds.

Wednesday night...MVFR becoming VFR south. VFR north. Gusty NW
winds.

Thursday...VFR. NW winds.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Have upgraded the SCA to a Gale Warning for this
afternoon and evening. Westerly winds will gust to 40 kt and
seas will build towards 8 feet. For the intracoastals along the
Hancock County coast, winds will not reach gale strength and
have maintained the existing SCA. Winds and seas will diminish
later this evening and anticipate the gale converting back to an
SCA.

SHORT TERM:
A gale will be needed Monday afternoon through Tuesday for
strong gusty SW winds becoming NW on Tuesday. A SCA for gusty NW
winds will continue through the end of the week. Freezing spray,
potentially heavy, is likely later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from noon today to midnight EST tonight for
     ANZ050-051.
     Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ050>052.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ052.
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&&

$$


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...MCW/Bloomer
Marine...MCW/Bloomer