Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 301802 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 202 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the north today and crest over the area Saturday. Low pressure will pass well south of the region today. High pressure will move east on Sunday as a warm front lifts into the area. A cold front will cross the region Sunday night followed by low pressure then a secondary cold front Monday night. High pressure will approach on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1:58 PM Update: Minor adjustments made to match current observations. Radar continues to clear out, limiting the threat for showers across the coast, and PoPs were reduced slightly to match. As the low pressure to the south continues to pull away, winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon. Previous discussion: The post tropical remains of once Hurricane Zeta are visible on satellite pictures passing well to the south of Nova Scotia early this morning. Another low of non tropical origins is moving off the southern Delmarva and will track along a strong baroclinic zone on a track just a bit south of Zeta`s remains. A broad ridge of high pressure covers the central U.S. this morning and it will build east and into western New England late tonight. As far as the sensible weather, today will have a good deal of sunshine across the Crown of Maine. To the south, morning clouds and a little leftover light rain/snow along and near the coast through mid morning will give way to gradual clearing this afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the low to mid 30s across the Saint John Valley to near 40 degrees along the coast. Tonight will be clear and cold with lows in the teens north to mid 20s along the coast. A few spots in the broad northwest valleys where the lower levels should fully decouple after midnight could bottom out near 10F by morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure cresting just south of the area Saturday will bring a sunny, dry and cold day with a light westerly breeze. The high will slide to the east just south of Nova Scotia Saturday night as a return southerly flow increases behind the high. Clouds will increase on Sunday along with an increasing southerly wind ahead of an occluded front pushing east ahead of a trough of low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes. The rapid approach of the front, and the direction from which it is approaching, will mean it will not be able to gain much moisture ahead of it. However, some periods of rain are likely Sunday night with the best chance for rainfall coming late Sunday night as low pressure attempts to consolidate over our region along a triple point low. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will lift up to our northeast on Monday pulling a strong cold front across the area. This will bring gusty west northwest winds and rain showers possibly changing to a period of snow showers. The new GFS is showing a strong undercutting cold front coupled with focused dynamic lift from the upper trough sliding across the area and gives more than an inch of QPF over the north. Some heavier showers in the wrap around of the low and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder would be possible if this scenario occurs, with precipitation changing over to snow before tapering off in the wrap around. The new ECMWF is also showing the potential for rain changing to a period of snow with increasing wind on Monday as the storm organizes and lifts northeast pulling colder air in its wake. A secondary weather disturbance will slide nearby to our south Monday night, possibly with some light snow or flurries in the highlands and in southern areas. This will be followed by a reinforcing surge of cold air on Tuesday with gusty northwest winds. High pressure will build to our south Tuesday night into Wednesday as the return flow behind the high lifts a warm front north across the area. This may bring some patchy light snow or snow showers to northern areas Wednesday morning followed by a breezy and milder afternoon Wednesday afternoon with a return of sunshine. By Thursday a broad ridge of high pressure to our south will extend from the southeastern states out into the Atlantic. This will bring a sunny and mild day Thursday as we stay in the southwesterly flow north of the high. Friday will remain mild ahead of a new cold front. This front may bring some spotty showers over the north during the midday and afternoon Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected over the next 24 hours. Gusts Downeast will diminish into the evening hours. High clouds will clear overnight. Light winds and clear skies will persist Saturday. SHORT TERM: Saturday: VFR. Light W wind. Saturday night: VFR. Light S wind. Sunday: VFR dropping to MVFR. Increasing S wind. SSW wind shear. Sunday night: IFR in some rain. S wind. SSW wind shear. Monday: MVFR to IFR. Strong gusty NW winds. Chance of rain showers changing to snow showers north. Monday night: VFR. NW wind. Tuesday: VFR. Gusty NW wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Gales warnings are in effect through noon today on the coastal waters and a small craft advisory on the intra- coastal. Gusts of 30 to 35 knots have been observed this morning at the eastern Maine Shelf and Jonesport buoys, and with a second low following closely behind the remains of Zeta felt that it was prudent to extend the gales a few more hours. At the expiration of the gale warning, a small craft advisory will likely be needed until around midnight tonight on the coastal waters, and the SCA on the intra-coastal will likely need to be extended through at least early this evening. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Sunday into Monday for S winds gusting up to 30 kt Sunday, becoming west gusting up to 30 kt Sunday night into Monday. A SCA will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday for gusty W to NW winds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/CB Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...AStrauser/CB/Bloomer Marine...AStrauser/CB/Bloomer

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