-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
073
FXUS61 KCAR 130144
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
944 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight through
Sunday. A weak frontal boundary will cross the region Monday.
High pressure will build across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Updated...
Just a few minor changes to the overnight forecast. The first
was to bring clouds in quicker across the Upper Penobscot valley
and Southeast Aroostook county. Latest nighttime satellite
imagery shows the low stratus advecting northeast rather quickly
this evening. The only other change was to bump low temperatures
up a degree or two across the north.

See updated aviation section.

previous discussion
Surface high pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight
through Sunday, with ridging extending westward toward Maine.
Aloft, upper level ridging will also exit across the Maritimes
tonight through Sunday. The light southerly flow tonight will
help advect low clouds and fog northward across the forecast
area, which should persist early Sunday. The most persistent low
clouds/fog Sunday will occur across portions of the Downeast
region and against the foothills of the west-central Highlands.
A weak cold front will begin to approach later Sunday night. An
upper level disturbance will also approach from the west later
Sunday into Sunday night. The disturbance and approaching front
will help support the slight chance/chance of showers and
thunderstorms across mostly northern and west-central areas
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Low clouds and fog will
again advect northward across the forecast area Sunday night.
Low temperatures both tonight and Sunday night will generally
range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area.
High temperatures Sunday will range from the mid 70s to around
80 north. Temperatures across Downeast areas will generally
range from the lower to mid 70s, though temperatures could hold
around 70 along the immediate Downeast coast
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday: The frontal boundary will start to move through the
region. The main concern will be the progression of the front
throughout the day. Models indicate a blocking ridge over the
Atlantic which is expected to stall the front across the west in
the morning, then gradually progressing across the state in the
afternoon. Upper air model soundings show CAPE increasing in
the afternoon and steepening lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected with the front. In addition,
soundings show a deep warm cloud layer, moist low and mid
levels, and PWAT values above 95 percent. With the stalled
front, there is a concern for training convective cells with
heavy rainfall. Eyes will be on the possibility of flooding.

Monday night: The frontal boundary should pick up speed and
weaken as it moves out of the region. Extended models show weak
surface ridging moving in. Showers should stick around until
after midnight. In addition, skies should clear out with the W
flow.

Tuesday: The weak surface ridging should settle in making for
mostly sunny skies and temps rebounding into the mid 80s in the
north and upper 80s in the south. Drier W flow should decrease
humidity for the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next low pressure system progresses across the Great Lakes
on Wednesday. The warm front from the system is expected to
stretch across the north of the state, putting the region into a
SW flow. This will pipe warm air from the tropics into the area,
increasing temps into the upper 80s to low 90s in the south and
mid 80s in the north. Models are in slight disagreement with the
timing of the low moving into the area. The GFS and Canadian
have the low moving in faster than the Euro. The NBM seems to
side with the GFS and Canadian, so decided to leave this in the
forecast. If the front does move through in Thursday, there is a
possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Decided to keep
the NBM for the rest of the week due to model inconsistency.
Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:


KFVE...VFR...then becoming MVFR/IFR after 07z in low cigs/fog.
Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR Sunday afternoon and then
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR once again Sunday night. S wind 5 to 10
kt.

KCAR...VFR...then becoming MVFR/IFR after 06z in low cigs/fog.
Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR Sunday afternoon and then
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR once again Sunday night. S wind 5 to 10
kt.

KPQI..VFR...then becoming MVFR/IFR after 05z in low cigs/fog.
Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR Sunday afternoon and then
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR once again Sunday night. S wind 5 to 10
kt.

KHUL...VFR/MVFR...then becoming IFR after 03z in low cigs/fog.
Conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR Sunday afternoon and then
deteriorate to IFR once again Sunday night. S wind 5 to 10 kt.

KBGR...LIFR/VLIFR in low cigs/fog tonight through Sunday
morning. Generally IFR expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night...although it is possible a brief period of MVFR develops
Sunday afternoon, but low confidence in this. S wind 5 to 10 kt.

KBHB...LIFR/VLIFR in low cigs/fog through Sun morning. High
confidence in conditions falling below airfield minimums at
times through early Sunday morning. Generally IFR/LIFR expected
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...although it is possible
a brief period of MVFR develops Sunday afternoon, but low
confidence in this. S wind 5 to 10 kt.

SHORT TERM: Monday & Monday Night...Variable conditions with
any SHRA or TS. Also, and any low clouds or BCFG. Otherwise,
mainly VFR. S winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. SW-W winds 5 to 10
knots Monday night.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR or lower possible north in the
PM with slight chance of VCSH and isolated TS. W winds 5-10
kts.

Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late with a
slight chance of VCSH or isolated TS north. SW winds 5 to 10
knots.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. SSW winds 5-10kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Sunday night. Patchy/areas of fog tonight through
Sunday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
through this time period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Norcross
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...TWD/Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...TWD/Norcross/LaFlash