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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 061147
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
647 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain across the Maritimes today while high
pressure builds west of the region. High pressure will build
toward the region later Sunday, then cross the region Sunday
night through Monday. An occluded front will cross the region
Tuesday. High pressure will build Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650am Update...Backed off on snow shower onset across the north
to mainly this afternoon into evening. Higher terrain near the
St Lawrence River is doing a number on lower clouds, keeping
them at bay. This bank has been threatening the Crown of Maine
all night, but loses its form shortly before the northern ME
towns. This is expected to change come the mid afternoon as
lapse rates improve and an embedded wave of energy crosses the
area. Then, the chance of showers/flurries becomes greater.
Loaded latest observations, with lowest temps coming out of
Masardis (-13) and Nine Mile Bridge (-9) so far this morning.

Prev Discussion...
Broad low pressure will continue to pivot across the Maritimes
today. The tight pressure gradient will again create a breezy
day, along with some scattered snow showers across the north.

While much of the loose snow on the ground has largely been
exhausted from warming and refreezing during the day and
previous windy days, some new snow from the snow showers today
could be blown around. This will most likely last from the mid-
afternoon hours to the late evening before winds wind down. Hi-
res models have been showing a brief band of snow dropping
through the Saint John Valley later today. However, soundings
support at least the mention of flurries through the greater
part of late morning through afternoon given low level moisture
and minor shortwaves moving through the broader WNW flow.

Wind and clouds sticking around this evening across the north
will prevent much temp falloff, but clearing skies are
anticipated after midnight. The North Woods will likely see
another night of temps in the single digits below zero, with
above zero readings for remainder of Northern/Eastern Maine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface/upper level low pressure will remain near Labrador
Sunday with an upper level trof extending back across the
region. Surface high pressure will begin to build across the
region later Sunday. Generally expect partly sunny skies north,
mostly sunny Downeast, Sunday. High pressure will cross the
region Sunday night through Monday. Expect partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies across northern areas Sunday night into Monday,
with mostly clear skies Downeast. An occluded front will
approach later Monday night. Clouds will increase in advance of
the front Monday night, with a chance of snow showers late
across mostly the north and mountains. Temperatures will be at
below normal levels Sunday, with near normal level temperatures
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The occluded front will cross the region early Tuesday, with
building high pressure late. Expect mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of snow showers across northern areas early
Tuesday, then a partly sunny afternoon. Expect partly sunny
skies across Downeast areas Tuesday. High pressure will ridge
across the region at both the surface and aloft Wednesday with
partly sunny skies. High pressure will exit across the
Maritimes early Thursday. A cold front will cross the region
later Thursday into Friday. Expect a chance of rain showers in
advance of the front Thursday into early Thursday night. Will
then have a chance of rain/snow showers with the front later
Thursday night into Friday. Above normal level temperatures are
expected Tuesday, with much above normal level temperatures
Wednesday/Thursday. Above normal level temperatures are
expected Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at Downeast terminals through tonight, west
winds gusting up to 15/20kt this afternoon. Across Aroostook
terminals, VFR with MVFR vis in -SHSN possible later this
afternoon with flurries through the morning. Most shower
activity is expected to remain at FVE and CAR.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...VFR, occasional MVFR, conditions across the north and
mountains. VFR Downeast. Northwest/west wind 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Northwest/west wind 10 to 15
knots.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early with a chance of snow showers, then
VFR. Northwest/west wind 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR. Light winds Tuesday
night. South/southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will remain below SCA criteria but breezy with
W wind becoming NW tonight. Light freezing spray this morning
and tonight. Waves becoming 2 to 3 ft.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels Sunday,
then again later Monday into Monday night. Small craft advisory
conditions possible Sunday night through early Monday. Light
freezing spray early Sunday, then again Sunday night into early
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Cornwell
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Cornwell/Norcross
Marine...Cornwell/Norcross