Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271014 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 614 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will pass south of the region today. A weather disturbance will move into western Maine this afternoon. Low pressure over Hudson Bay will cross the area this weekend and will be followed by high pressure Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:14 AM Update: Showers with embedded thunderstorms moving across northern Maine to the north of the Katahdin Region early this morning. Have update the forecast to add thunder for the next couple of hours until this line of showers move east of the region. Otherwise, updated with the past few hours of observed data and made minor changes based on the expected conditions this morning. Previous discussion: The weather remains muggy and unsettled through tonight. Today will start with low clouds and with a light south to southeast flow there will be areas of drizzle and fog. The low clouds will lift a bit this afternoon and there could be breaks in the clouds toward the western Maine/Quebec border. Instability will increase this afternoon, most so across the western zones where model soundings indicate 1000-1500 J/KG with decreasing cape to the east. The best shear is expected to be across the southern half of the FA. The best chance for a few storms to become strong would be across the North Woods and Central Highlands. The latest day one convective outlook from the SPC this morning has the area in general thunder, but there is some threat that there could be a broken line of convection and that some storms could have better organization with gusty wind and small hail. It can`t be ruled that that a couple of storms turn severe, but for now will have enhanced wording for gusty wind/small hail, and heavy downpours. Confidence on storms turning severe is low and did collaborate wording with WFO Gray. Did not feel the threat was high enough at this time to collaborate a higher threat with SPC. The threat of thunderstorms should come to an end by around 9 pm with scattered showers to end from west to east overnight. Areas of low clouds will push back into the area tonight from the east with some patchy fog. Highs today mostly in the 60s across the eastern zones with lower 70s in the west. Along the immediate coast highs will likely be stuck in the 50s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short wave trof axis will be pushing east into New Brunswick by daybreak Friday while a 500 MB low center remains in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. A northwest flow aloft will continue across the region on Friday in the wake of the exiting short wave across the Canadian Maritimes and the upper low near James Bay. Expect partly sunny skies on Friday, although an isolated shower can`t be totally ruled out. It will be a warmer day with highs ranging from the mid 70s north and upper 70s to near 80 central and downeast. As we go into Friday night and Saturday, the upper low that was near James Bay at the start of the period will begin to move southeast. Weak short waves will rotate around the upper low in the westerly flow aloft toward the region later Friday night and Saturday. The will result in the chance for showers later Friday night and on Saturday. There will also be the chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. It will be a cooler day with highs ranging from the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, which is below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Unsettled weather pattern continues Saturday night through Sunday as the upper trof crosses the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a continued chance for showers. Monday is still shaping up as a dry day as a weak upper level ridge builds across the region. A cold front approaches Monday night and then crosses the region on Tuesday with the chance for showers. Drier weather returns for mid week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR this morning in low cloud and fog will lift a bit this afternoon to MVFR in most areas, with low end VFR possible at the Aroostook County terminals. Conditions will gradually lower back to IFR tonight. Isolated thunderstorms from KPQI early this morning with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon mainly to the north and west of Baxter State Park which may produce gusty and erratic wind gusts, small hail, and heavy downpours. SHORT TERM: Fri and Fri Night...Mainly VFR, except possible IFR conditions in early morning low clouds and patchy fog vcnty KBGR/KBHB. Sat thru Sun...MVFR in scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. Mon...VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels, although seas will be near 5 ft at times this morning on the coastal waters before slowly subsiding. A humid air mass over the waters will produce areas of fog at times through tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through the long term period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.