Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 290518 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 118 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east overnight. Low pressure will approach from the west later Sunday and track south of the area Monday. High pressure will build to our north and west Tuesday through Thursday while low pressure remains southeast of the Canadian Maritimes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 115 am update... Quick update to ingest hrly temps and dwpts into fcst. Cld cvr thickening acrs srn zones shud keep temps fm dropping too much and hv bumped mins up by a degree or two. Previous Discussion... High pressure will move over northern Maine tonight with increasing cloudiness after midnight. High clouds then thicken and lower through the day Sunday. SE return flow from the exiting high pressure and incoming warm air will bring highs into the 40s across much of the region. Although, it will be difficult for these warmer surface temps to infiltrate the western slopes of the Central Highlands into the North Woods due to terrain. Went with temperatures a couple degrees cooler there, which will play factor into precip type come Sunday evening. Much of the precipitation moving in late Sunday will begin as rain. Mixing w/ snow first across the North Woods where cooler day temps were achieved. Much of the thermal profile suggests flakes will make it to the surface before melting shortly after on warmer surfaces. With healthy snowpack still in that region, this should be overcome quite quickly combined with dynamic cooling in higher rate precip. More on this below. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The combo of llvl evaporational and mid lvl dynamic cooling will chg any onset mixed precip to all wet sn from WNW to ESE across the FA Sun eve and ovrngt as the sfc low advcs to Srn QB and a secondary low forms on the triple point near Cape Cod. Both the 12z dtmnstc GFS and ECMWF have been consistent with the tracks of the primary and secondary lows with this event over the last couple of model runs going into Mon. This event will be the typical msly ngt tm into mid morn accumulating snfl seen durg spring months ovr this FA, with the greatest potential of snfl ovr NW and Cntrl ME highlands where a wntr stm watch has been issued for wet hvy snfl. Wntr wx advs will likely be needed ovr adjacent NE and perhaps Cntrl ptns of the FA mainly for late Sun ngt into Mon morn. Sn will mix with or chg to lgt rn or sct shwrs across the FA by Mon aftn as sfc-BL temps rise abv fzg. Intermittent lgt rn/sn or sct rn/sn shwrs will linger Mon ngt into Tues msly across the N with sn as a precip type dominating during the late ngt thru erly morn hrs as the sfc low moves S of Nova Scotia and an upper trof remains ovr the Rgn. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... It looks like a msly cool maritime regime will hold ovr the long range with cool dytm hi temps, and mild ovrngt lows as NAO takes a decided turn into negative indices, the most so since late last Fall. Tue ngt and Wed looks to be drier, but with cldnss persisting with NE sfc winds. Aftwrds, Thu thru Sat look unsettled with other s/wv trofs alf movg E off the mid Atlc states bringing possible rn/sn shwrs or steady lgt rn/sn as they interact with the old sfc low S of Nova Scotia, with more rn/sn precip type at ngt and erly morn, and all rn durg the late morn and aftn hrs. The best potential for more sig precip will be Thu aftn and eve where we went with likely PoPs, with a strong push of maritime air from the E suggesting much more in the way of rn then sn with this event from the way model guidance looks attm. Fri ngt and Sat look to be a little colder as the cntr of the upper low moves back ovr the FA, with shwr precip type more in the way of sn spcly across the N and mtns late at ngt and into the morn hrs. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected at FVE, CAR and PQI through 06z Mon. KHUL may see IFR vsbys in -sn after 02z. BGR and BHB wl lkly drop to MVFR restrictions after 00z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun night...Clgs/vsbys lowering to IFR in sn N and rn/sn Cntrl and Downeast. Lgt E winds. Mon...IFR clgs/vsbys in morn snow, then IFR or MVFR in lgt mixed rn/sn or sct rn/sn shwrs in the aftn. Lgt E to NE wind. Mon ngt...MVFR cld and ocnl vsbys in sct sn shwrs. Lgt N wind Tue - Wed...MVFR clgs N, msly VFR Downeast. Lgt N wind. Wed ngt - Thu...MVFR-IFR clgs/vsbys in ngt tm rn/sn N and rn Cntrl/Downeast then msly all rn on Thu. Lgt to mdt N to NE winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight under high pressure. Waves will slowly decrease to between 1-2 feet this evening through Sunday. Winds will approach SCA criteria Sunday evening. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA for E to NE winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt and accompanying seas over all of the waters waters Sun eve through Mon, then msly the outer MZs Mon ngt thru Tue morn. All Mzs will then subside below SCA later Tue into Wed only to perhaps increase back into the SCA range later Wed ngt thru Thu depending on movement of low pres S of Nova Scotia. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday morning for MEZ001-003-004-010. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Cornwell/Farrar Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Cornwell/Farrar/VJN Marine...Cornwell/Farrar/VJN

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