Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 150542 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 142 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak occluded front will cross the area tonight followed by high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure will intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and quickly track north into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. The low will continue northeast across the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will return Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 140 AM Update: Front has made its way through most of northern Maine, last band of showers is moving through the eastern border towns and cities currently. Skies gradually clear behind, with some overcast skies lingering towards the Bangor region and interior Downeast. Made minor changes to the ongoing forecast to reflect the past few hours of observed data and the latest radar and near term sky coverage trends. Added the chance of some patchy fog later tonight/early Tues morning as it is developing across portions of eastern Quebec that have cleared from clouds. Previous discussion: The evening will begin mostly clear in the northwest with a partly to mostly cloudy sky east. A weak occluded front will quickly approach. Stratus from south central and southwestern Maine may spread north this evening ahead of the front bringing low cloudiness. The front will then cross the area late this evening bringing a band of light showers through, mostly across the north. Some clearing will return late tonight following the passage of the front and ahead of high pressure building to our southwest. The high will be just to our south on Tuesday bringing a sunny to partly cloudy and seasonably cool day across the area. Some high cloudiness may begin to stray into northwestern areas late in the day along a warm front ahead of a large trough approaching from the Great Lakes. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday Night...High pressure overhead Tuesday night. With good radiational cooling, looking for patchy valley fog. Went a bit cooler than most guidances, as guidance, especially raw model temps, tend to be too warm in valleys on nights with good decoupling. Wednesday...High pressure moves east of the area with southerly flow returning. Remaining dry with highs in the 50s. Wednesday Night and Thursday...Potent upper trough approaches from the west, and with good upper jet support, looking for possible bombogenesis somewhere in the Northeast or Gulf of Maine Wednesday night. The potentially intense low pressure then maintains strength as it moves northeast through Maine or the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Models are in okay agreement, but there are still important issues to be resolved in timing, track, and intensity. General model trend is for a slower and slightly more westerly track and this forecast package reflects this trend. GFS and GEFS are on the fast side. Operational ECMWF is slower. ECMWF ensembles are all over the place on intensity and track, but tend to favor the slower solution of the operational ECMWF. UKMET and Canadian models are more in the middle. There are also some models that have more of a dual-low structure while others have a more consolidated low. Shied away from GFS/GEFS and went more with slower UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian solution. This would track the low to the Boston to Portland region late Wednesday night, then northeast along the Maine coast Thursday into early Thursday evening before exiting into the Canadian Maritimes. Rain would be fairly heavy mainly on Thursday...probably over an inch...but with antecedent dry conditions flooding isn`t a huge concern. Potential is there for decent winds. Think that warning level winds are unlikely, and that advisory level winds a more likely bet. Wind could knock a lot of leaves off the trees, so get out soon to enjoy the foliage! Not anticipating anything more than minor coastal erosion at this point, but bears watching. No snow threat except at the highest elevations like atop Katahdin. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Nor`easter kicks out to the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night and we dry out. Cool and breezy Friday behind the system. Weekend is shaping up quite nice with high confidence in high pressure. Model agreement quite good in no precip for the weekend. Temps fairly close to average. Next rain chance comes around Monday night or Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Tonight: Conditions will lower to MVFR at the Aroostook County terminals this evening in lower clouds and a few showers, with brief IFR possible. Conditions will improve to VFR early Tue morning. At the Downeast terminals, IFR to MVFR conditions tonight will improve to VFR early Tue morning. Tuesday: VFR. Light west wind. SHORT TERM: Tuesday Night... Patchy valley fog with local IFR/MVFR. Wednesday...VFR with light wind. Wednesday Night...VFR early with increasing SE breeze. MVFR/IFR with rain developing late in the night Downeast. Thursday...Windy and rainy with mostly IFR or worse. Thursday Night and Friday...Windy with conditions improving to MVFR/VFR Thursday night and mostly VFR Friday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The Wind and seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Wind begins to increase late Wednesday ahead of the next system, increasing to a Likelihood for gales mainly late Wednesday night into Thursday. Can`t totally rule out storm force winds. Seas to around 8 feet, though quite a bit of uncertainty depending on strength and track of the system. Small craft persisting into Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Cornwell Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Bloomer/Cornwell/Foisy Marine...Bloomer/Cornwell/Foisy

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