Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251332 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 932 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region into Wednesday. A cold front will approach later Wednesday then cross the region Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930am Update... Sunny, quiet day underway with high pressure overhead. Morning fog has burned off. Winds extremely light, and only limited cumulus development expected, mainly near higher terrain. Only very minor changes to inherited forecast. Previous discussion... The powerful upper and surface ridges will continue to deliver strong subsidence with little cloud cover and no precip through tonight. The blocking ridge evolves to a Rex block during the forecast period. The closed upper low to the south has become a more dynamic feature in recent model runs with cyclogenesis occurring well south of Nova Scotia later tonight. The only potential consequence in the forecast area could be some cirrus spinning around the closed low into the Downeast region very late tonight. For today, a nominal increase in 850mb temps will deliver highs several degrees higher than yesterday, especially in the southern half of the forecast area which won`t be affected by cloud cover today. In spite of a rather deep mixed layer this afternoon, winds aloft are light and surface winds will remain light all day. Clear skies and light winds carry into Sunday night with another strong radiation inversion. In spite of an even deeper inversion, lows won`t be quite as cold as this morning`s readings. Valley fog and steam fog over relatively warmer lakes/rivers will return later Sunday night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will remain across the region Monday through Tuesday, then begin to move east Tuesday night. At the same time, an intensifying ocean low will track toward eastern Nova Scotia. Aloft, an upper low will move east across Nova Scotia, eventually capturing the surface low. High pressure will keep generally mostly clear skies across the region Monday through Tuesday night. However, the surface/upper low across the Maritimes could wrap clouds back toward eastern portions of the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. Patchy valley fog is also possible across the region Monday night. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front will move east across Quebec province Wednesday while another ocean low intensifies south of the Gulf of Maine. Expect increasing clouds in advance of the cold front later Wednesday. The cold front approaches the region Wednesday night while the ocean low tracks toward Nova Scotia. Expect increasing shower chances across the region Wednesday night in advance of the cold front. The cold front will cross the region Thursday. Uncertainty exists Thursday regarding the extent to which moisture from the ocean low is drawn north across the region in advance of the cold front. Have kept a chance of showers across the region Thursday. However, if more significant moisture is drawn north more extensive showers or a steadier rain are possible. Showers should end later Thursday night with building high pressure, which will then cross the region Friday. A cold front should approach later Friday night with a chance of showers across mostly the north and mountains. The cold front will begin to cross the region Saturday, though the exact timing is still uncertain. Expect a chance of showers with the cold front. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday/Friday/Saturday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Thursday. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions with excellent vis and no cigs are forecast. SHORT TERM: Monday through Wednesday...Generally VFR. However, variable conditions are possible with any late night valley fog. Wednesday night through Thursday...MVR/IFR with showers. Improving conditions Thursday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Expect some wind gusts up to 20 kts this morning, mostly further offshore rather than near the immediate coast or Penobscot Bay. Otherwise, no significant weather is anticipated. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Monday through Tuesday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Foisy/MCW/Norcross Marine...Foisy/MCW/Norcross

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