National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 051409
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1009 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach today, cross the region tonight, then
exit through the Maritimes on Wednesday. High pressure will cross
the region later Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross
the area Friday. High pressure will build toward the region
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1010 am update...
Cirrus is beginning to thicken up acrs far swrn zones this
morning with areas to the north of Baxter remaining mostly sunny
as of 14z. Surface low pressure, which will cross the region
late tonight, is currently located over Lake Huron with warm
front extending into upstate NY at this time. Sfc low wl
continue tracking east along boundary this afternoon with high
clouds increasing over entire FA by 18z with low clouds moving
in fm the west after 00z this evening. Cannot rule out an isold
sprinkle or shower early this aftn but think the steadier rain
will hold off until later this aftn or evng as sfc low
approaches. Only minor tweaks to sky cover to go more optimistic
this morning acrs the north. No other chgs needed with this
update.

Previous Discussion:
Mostly to partly sunny skies this morning will give way to
increasing clouds throughout the day as low pressure over the
Great Lakes moves east towards Maine. The initial sunshine will
be enough to warm a majority of the area well into the 70s. This
will generate a modest amount of instability beneath a capping
inversion just above 10,000 feet, resulting in convective
showers by this afternoon, particularly near and northeast of
Mount Katahdin. Steadier rain will overspread western areas late
this afternoon, then reach the rest of the area by midnight.
Surface convergence along a boundary from around Greenville
through Millinocket will produce locally heavier rainfall along
and north of the boundary, with amounts in excess of an inch
forecast. A small amount of leftover instability from daytime
heating may also contribute to some heavier rainfall rates.
Rainfall amounts will generally be around a half inch to one
inch elsewhere, though slightly lower amounts are possible
around and southwest of Bangor. Low temperatures tonight will be
relatively mild given the cloud cover and rain, ranging from
near 60 around Bangor to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure across the southern part of our region will track
east into southern New Brunswick Wednesday morning. Some rain
will linger across eastern and northern areas early Wednesday
morning, then diminish as the shortwave and low continue away
into the Maritimes on Wednesday and high pressure begins to
build in from the west. This will allow clouds to decrease
giving way to a mostly sunny afternoon. High pressure will crest
over the area Wednesday night bringing a calm and clear moonlit
night. The moist ground may allow some patchy valley fog to
form late at night. High pressure will slowly slide southeast of
the area Thursday as a light return flow from the south begins.
The high and upper ridging will bring a mostly sunny day
Thursday. A new shortwave will be dropping southeast through
central Canada Thursday night pushing a cold front toward the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will push into the area Friday morning, likely before
the days heating, bringing some showers and possibly an embedded
thunderstorm. The best chance for thunder may be over the far
northwest where a low level jet across the St. Lawrence valley may
feed into the front first thing in the morning. Otherwise, some
showers and isolated thunderstorms will push across the area Friday
followed by partial clearing. High pressure will build in from the
west Friday night pushing moderately cooler air south into our
region. Temperatures will drop into the 40s across the north and the
50s Downeast by early Saturday morning. High pressure will bring a
mostly sunny sky Downeast on Saturday while cool air aloft brings
cumulus across the north on Saturday bringing a partly sunny and
cool day over northern areas. Saturday night into Sunday will bring
northwest flow aloft between a trough to our northeast and ridging
building into the midwest. This will bring a partly cloudy and cool
night Saturday night followed by a partly sunny day on Sunday. A
weak shortwave sliding southeast in the upper flow may set off a
couple showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm on Sunday
during the afternoon. Surface high pressure will slide southeast of
the area Sunday night into Monday. This will allow a return
southwesterly flow to set up on Monday channeling warmer and more
humid air north into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Today...VFR. Tempo MVFR visibility is possible in showers this
afternoon. WSW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to around 15-18kts.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain, heavy at times from
KGNR to KMLT to KHUL. N winds 5-10 kts across northern
terminals. SW winds 5-15kts at southern terminals. LLWS possible
along the coast.


SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...IFR north and MVFR south early, improving to VFR
south by late morning and VFR north by midday. N wind.

Wednesday night...VFR. NW wind.

Thursday...VFR. light W wind becoming SW.

Thursday night...VFR dropping to MVFR. S wind.

Friday...MVFR early, becoming VFR. NW wind.

Friday night...VFR. NW wind.

Saturday...VFR. NW to W wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels
today before increasing to advisory levels tonight, particularly
after midnight. Visibility will be reduced in rain tonight.
Patchy fog is possible towards daybreak Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas should remain below SCA through this week. Humid
air over the waters may result in some fog and mist early
Wednesday. Visibilities should improve later Wednesday through
late week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Buster/MStrauser
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Buster/MStrauser/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/MStrauser/Bloomer