Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 211008 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 608 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the area Today. Low pressure will approach Tonight and lift north of the area Wednesday. The low will pull a cold front across the region Wednesday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point based on latest observations. No other changes. Strong high pressure will remain over the area today and will bring sunny and dry conditions to the area. Intensifying low pressure will pass to the west of New England Tonight and will result in showers moving into western areas towards morning. Temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s today and in the mid 50s for lows tonight. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Unsettled day Wednesday as a potent surface low pressure passes by to our northwest, sending an occluded front through in the morning, followed by a cold front toward sunset. Could be a few storms right ahead of the cold front, but not expecting anything strong or severe. Most areas will see a wetting rain with generally 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain. Cooler, drier airmass works in Wednesday night into Thursday with breezy conditions. Stratocumulus should persist Thursday mainly across the north, and went higher than models for cloudcover in the north Thursday due to a known sunny bias on days like Thursday. High pressure works into New England Thursday night with cool temperatures. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm and somewhat muggy weekend in store as south/southwest flow returns as the high pressure moves off to our east. Eventually rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, though models differ on timing and amount of precipitation. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today and tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR early Wednesday most areas, probably only improving to MVFR most areas in the afternoon. Rapid improvement to VFR Wednesday evening as a cold front passes through. Generally VFR Thursday to Saturday. Could be some MVFR ceilings far Northern Maine on Thursday at times, though. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for winds. For waves: The primary wave system through tonight will be long period southerly swell (around 2 feet/8 seconds) accompanied by southeasterly wind wave (less than 1 foot). SHORT TERM: Seas likely building to 5 to 6 feet Wednesday night. South winds ahead of the cold front during the day Wednesday could also approach small craft levels. Quieter conditions late Thursday into Saturday with high pressure. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Mignone/Foisy Marine...Mignone/Foisy

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