-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
880
FXUS61 KCAR 121847
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
147 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through
Saturday as a series of weather disturbances moves through. A new
upper low diving down from Central Canada will develop low pressure
off our coast on Sunday. Low pressure will lift into Eastern Canada
Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface ridging slides east over Maine this afternoon. As a
result, surface winds gradually relax as pressure gradient
between a departing low system and said high pressure system
starts to ease. Following this, a shortwave begins to move
along the coast this evening, which could provide enough
instability for some rain showers to develop over the waters.
Highs in the upper-30s in the north, and low-to-mid 40s
Downeast.

Tonight, shortwave continues to slide along the Maine
coastline, resulting in rain showers over the waters and
immediate coast. As low moves east, there is a chance for some
wrap-around light snow showers to move through northern Maine.
Overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 20s. Winds become light and
variable overnight.

Tomorrow, a trough cuts-off, developing a low over Maine, that
moves over the state during the day into the night. Surface high
lingers over the north tomorrow, which may keep snow showers
away from the Crown of Maine, but scattered snow showers are
expected in the rest of northern and central Maine during day.
Low center sits around the Gulf of Maine tomorrow evening,
supporting some rain showers over the waters and a corridor of a
rain/snow mix Downeast where temperatures teeter in the
mid-30s. Daytime highs in the upper-30s in the north, and
mid-40s Downeast.

Tomorrow night, low pressure moves out to the waters past Nova
Scotia. Rain showers switch to snow showers as temperatures
creep below 32, but stay light, with minimal accumulations.
Could be periods of a rain/snow mix further inland. Overnight
lows in the low-20s in the north, and mid-to-upper 20s Downeast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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We will be on the western side of an upper trough centered over the
Maritimes on Friday which will keep us in a chilly northwesterly
flow under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Highs will only top
out in the low to mid 30s north and the low 40s Downeast. This
will be followed by a partly cloudy and very chilly night Friday
night. The gradient east of strengthening low pressure over
Newfoundland may keep a northwesterly breeze overnight with lows
from the mid teens in the northwest to the mid 20s Downeast.

Low pressure surface and aloft will remain over the Maritimes on
Saturday keeping us in a northwesterly flow. A narrow ridge of
high pressure just to our west will bring a partly to mostly
sunny but continued cold day on Saturday with highs again from
the low to mid 30s north to the low 40s Downeast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Our focus Saturday night will turn to a new, vigorous upper low
rapidly sliding southeast from Central Canada. As this low
approaches Sunday morning strong jet energy south of this low,
surging east from the Upper Midwest, will support developing low
pressure off our coast. This low will rapidly intensify during the
day Sunday as it lifts northeast into the Maritimes. The low has
the potential to bring some significant snow to the area on
Sunday with rain Downeast depending how close it tracks to our
area. A quickly deepening low that hugs close to our coast has
the potential to bring significant snow north and rain south
while a weaker low that swings further out to sea would bring
less precipitation. However, it it pulls inland from the coast,
it could bring warmer air north changing snow to rain. Current
model runs suggest that even if the low tracks well southeast,
an inverted trough extending west across our region has the
potential to bring some snow on Sunday which may last into
Sunday evening over the north.

Low pressure will continue to intensify as it lifts deeper into the
Maritimes Sunday night. This has the potential to be a very large
low with a strong circulation extending to the west across our
region. Gusty west to northwesterly winds late Sunday night into
Monday will potentially result in blowing snow if enough falls.
Otherwise, Monday will be mostly cloudy with some lingering snow
showers across the north.

Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will swing back northwestward
into Northern Quebec on Tuesday keeping us in the southern edge of
its circulation. This will maintain a gusty chilly westerly
breeze under a mostly cloudy sky.

The upper trough will continue to be to our north through mid-week
keeping our weather generally cold, breezy, and mostly cloudy north
to partly cloudy south.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Currently VFR at northern terminals. Gusty
winds will persist until this evening, where they will steadily
decrease until they are light and variable tonight. Winds then
become northeasterly and light tomorrow. Ceilings do trend
downwards throughout the evening to at least MVFR levels. There
is a chance for some light vicinity snow showers to move
through the north tonight. Skies should begin to clear out a bit
from BKN to SCT in the morning.

KBGR/KBHB: Currently VFR at southern terminals. Gusty winds
will persist until this evening, where they will steadily
decrease until they are light and variable tonight. Winds then
become northeasterly and light tomorrow. Ceilings do trend
downwards overnight, to at least MVFR levels by tomorrow
morning. Vicinity rain showers, primarily at KBHB, this
afternoon and again tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM:
Friday...VFR. NW wind 10 kt gusting to 20 kt.

Friday night...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt gusting to 15 kt.

Saturday...VFR. NW wind 10 kt gusting to 20 kt.

Saturday night...VFR possibly dropping to MVFR then IFR south late.
W wind around 5 kt becoming S.

Sunday...IFR, possibly improving to MVFR south late. E wind 5 to 10
kt.

Sunday night...IFR north. MVFR to VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt
gusting to 25 kt.

Monday...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. W wind 15 kt gusting to 25
kt.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory in effect until tonight for
outer-waters, as wind gusts continue to gust 25-30 kts, and
seas rising around 7ft. Rain showers tonight through tomorrow
morning. Winds currently from the SW, shifting to the W
tonight. Winds then shifting to the N tomorrow. Conditons below
Small Craft criteria tomorrow, before beginning to ramp up
early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will likely be needed Friday through Saturday for NW winds
gusting up to 25 kt. A gale may then be needed Sunday night
through Monday for west winds gusting up to 35 kt. Seas will be
up to 5 ft into early this weekend increasing to 6 ft late, 7 ft
late Sunday night, then 8 ft on Monday.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.
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&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...MB
Long Term...MB
Aviation...ASB/MB
Marine...ASB/MB