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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 241107
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
607 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front dropping south across the region this morning will
dissipate along the Downeast coast this afternoon. Low pressure will
approach the area from the south on Saturday and track across
Maine late Sunday and Sunday night. The low is expected to move
east of the region by Monday and will be followed by weak high
pressure Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:07 am update: Clouds will remain a challenge today. The
stratus across the eastern Saint John Valley south to near
Houlton has scattered out in some spots, but there are more low
clouds in northwest New Brunswick may slip south back into the
area. Overall, forecast confidence on cloud cover is low this
morning across the northern third of the FA. Across the southern
2/3s of the FA there are mostly just high level clouds. Made
some adjustments to the sky grids and temperatures for this
morning, otherwise no major changes at this time.

Previous discussion:
A weak cold front is pushing south across the FA early this
morning and will dissipate this afternoon across the Downeast
Region. A strong ridge of sfc high pressure in central Quebec
will build east with high centers in eastern Quebec and across
northern Nova Scotia by 12Z Saturday morning. There will be a
wedge of cooler and drier air across northern areas today with a
partly to mostly sunny sky across the far north after some
morning clouds. There will be more clouds to the south with the
remains of the frontal boundary. Highs this afternoon will
range from the m/u 20s north to the m/u 30s in the Greater
Bangor Region. Partly cloudy tonight with lows mostly in the
single digits north to the teens south. A light wind regime is
expected through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sat will be fair, but with low cldnss with return SE flow arnd
departing sfc hi pres beginning erly abv the BL. Deeper hi and
mid cldnss abv the low cldnss will ovrsprd the Rgn from the W
Sat ngt as sfc low pres from the great lks apchs.

Most models cont a warmer trend with this system, with fzra,
perhaps mixed with sleet N and W, movg across the FA by late Sat
ngt. Downeast areas will likely be warm enough for msly rn with
this event. Warmer Sfc-BL temps will move nwrd ovr Ern ptns of
the FA durg the day Sun, with precip turning to rn perhaps as
far as NE Aroostook county by aftn. Ovr the NW, enough llvl
cold air may hold on for fzra to cont into the erly aftn, then
mix with or chg to sn by late aftn. This transition to sn or sn
shwrs will then slowly work ESE ovr the rest of the FA Sun ngt
without going back to any fzra as the upper low apchs from the
WSW.

Given uncertainties of precip type with this event, there is
low confidence with regard to ice, sleet or sn amts attm, and
these should be better refined by tomorrow attm. What we can say
with more certainty is that we will need wntr wx advs spcly for
Cntrl and Nrn ptns of the FA late Sat ngt into Sun. Given the
potential of mixed precip and even rn, temps will be much abv
Jan avgs for this ptn of the fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sn shwrs will cont on Mon as the upper low moves E of the FA
with the llvl air mass not arctic. Any remaining sn shwrs Mon
ngt should end by Tue morn as the both the sfc and upper low
move E ovr the open N Atlc. This will leave ptly to msly cldy
skies thru the mid week with slowly cooling temps Tue thru Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings at times this morning from KPQI north
to KFVE, otherwise, VFR today into this evening. MVFR ceilings
will likely develop later tonight at the Downeast terminals
along with some patchy late night fog.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat and Sat eve MVFR clgs and lgt Winds.

Late Sat ngt thru Sun IFR clgs/vsbys with mixed precip Nrn TAF
sites and Rn Downeast.

Sun Ngt thru Mon: IFR clgs/vsbys in sn Nrn TAF sites and MVFR
clgs/vsbys with sct rn/sn shwrs.

Mon ngt and Tue: MVFR clgs/vsbys with sct sn shwrs N and low
VFR clgs Downeast.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns for Sat, then winds and
seas ramp up to low end gales on our outer waters and strong SCA
for our inner bay/harbor waters late Sat ngt into Sun morn.
Winds and/or wvs will then subside to SCA later Sun and then
slowly below SCA by Mon ngt. Used blended model wv guidance for
fcst wv hts.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...CB/VJN
Marine...CB/VJN