Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 130214 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 914 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will cross the region Thursday then exit across the Maritimes Friday. A cold front will cross the region Friday night through early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 9:14 pm update: It is 15 below at Estcourt Station as of 9 pm and 5 above at Frenchville. Most of the valleys across northwest Maine are 5 to 15 below, and there are no signs of any stratus on satellite. The ridge axis is across western New England and it will build east to the western Maine/Quebec border by morning. Across the eastern zones, it will take some more time for the lower levels to fully decouple, but that should happen after midnight and once the wind becomes very light/calm temps will drop sharply. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperatures and a couple of minor tweaks to the overnight lows, but overall the ongoing forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion: Cold sfc hipres centered ovr nrn Quebec evident on IR imagery. Max temps hv likely been reached for the day and with strong north winds contg this evng, arctic air wl cont to mv in. Ridge axis wl lkly result in clr skies and lgt winds with valleys decoupling tonight. Mins by morning may rival the coldest temps of the season with far NW zones appchg -30F. Only fly in the ointment wl be how quickly we can lose the moisture/clouds fm the St. Lawrence and wl need to be watched closely for tonight. Coastal areas lkly to drop to near 0F and possibly a degree or two blo in some locations. Hipres wl slide offshore thru the day Thur allowing sfc winds to back twd the southwest. Highs tomorrow wl lkly be warmer than tda with highs near 20 acrs the north and m20s/nr 30 ovr Downeast. Skies wl be sunny throughout the day with light westerly winds expected everywhere. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Forecast confidence continues to increase for this period with stronger ensemble and deterministic model support for most of the rain with the Friday night into Saturday coastal wave staying well south of the region as the northern stream shortwave will be the dominate mid-level features. On Friday the strong SW return flow still looks to be on par which will warm the boundary layer to above freezing for the Penobscot Valley region and Downeast with even far Northern Maine getting close to the freezing point. This will feel nice after the past week cold snap. Mid and high clouds will quickly invade the region by Friday afternoon as teh 500mb shortwave begins to approach from Quebec province. With the combination of warm air advection from the SW and cloud cover, temperatures aren`t expected to fall off much Friday night, have trended temperatures up due to this. Still low confidence in the QPF for Friday night into Saturday morning with the weak cold front pushing through, but the ensemble mean is only around .10" across the north with .05" for Downeast, thus nothing significant. Precip type will be difficult, but based on the warming low levels and 925mb temps surging well above freezing across Downeast and Bangor region just went with a rain/snow mix and kept it all snow across the north with thermal profiles just cold enough to support some wet snow. Over accumulations across the north look very light maybe an inch at worst at this time. During the day on Saturday the cold front pushes through the area with cold air advection all day during the day, temperature guidance continues to trend down on Saturday with morning temperatures possible being the warmest readings of the day. It will be mostly dry with a few flurries for the Northwoods. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A high pressure ridge will be extended across the region at the start of the period through Monday evening. A low and associated front will track east across the Gulf of Maine waters bringing chance for some snowshowers to the Downeast coast Monday evening. The ridge will build back across the region and remain through Wednesday evening. A low moving SE out of the Hudson Bay region will begin to influence NW Maine by the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hrs. There could be some temporary restrictions to vis by sunrise on Thursday as an inversion will trap smoke in valleys. SHORT TERM: No significant aviation impacts expected at this time Friday through the weekend. There could be some MVFR cigs Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak cold front pushes through the area. Clouds will be thinning by late Saturday morning, with clearing expected for KBHB and KBGR during the day. High pressure will dominate the area Sunday with no impacts expected. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA continues through midnight tonight with gusts aoa 25kts. Winds will slowly drop after this time, though may linger above advisory levels for 1-2 hours after midnight. SHORT TERM: Winds could begin to approach SCA conditions on Friday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will push off the waters by Saturday morning with a wind shift to the NW with winds once again approaching SCA conditions. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Farrar Short Term...Dumont Long Term...Norton Aviation...CB/Farrar/Dumont Marine...CB/Farrar/Dumont

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