Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 090540 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1240 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will cross the area tonight through early Monday. Low pressure will track northwest of the region Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night through early Wednesday with strong high pressure building into the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230am Update... No changes needed to the forecast. Cloudy night with warmer air moving in and a bit of light mixed precipitation. Previous Discussion... Mid-cloud deck has overspread wrn half of the area this afternoon in area of warm advection. Temps hv increased thru the 20s with coastal areas in the lwr 30s. Light precipitation being seen mvg thru srn Quebec and approaching the state with lgt snow and/or flurries likely ovr the St. John Vly this afternoon and evening. Expect that temps wl cont to rise drg the course of the overnight with temps at 00z lkly being the low temps for tonight. Warm advection lgt snow expected to traverse acrs the north this evng bfr dvlpng ovr the rmndr of the region thru daybreak as warm advection lift increases. Given the warming airmass expect that pcpn wl be all rain south of a Bangor to Topsfield line at onset and mainly snow to the north with a rain/snow mix line in between for a period of time this morning. Cannot rule out a glaze of ice due to vry lgt frzg rain or frzg drizzle early in the morning mainly in a corridor fm about Millinocket to Houlton. Moisture wl exit the dendrite region acrs the north btwn 12z and 18z with a period of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Moisture returns aft 18z to return nrn areas to mainly rain aft this time as high temps wl warm into the u30s ovr the south and u40s for Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday evening, rain will be ongoing across the area as SW oriented mid-level jet noses into Northern New England. This exit region supports divergence aloft, with area of lower level convergence over Downeast. As strong southerly LLJ drives into the ascent, some guidance QPF values are showing potential for convective precip. This paints some localized areas of enhanced rainfall among the potent IVT current and PWATs between 1-1.5. Feel very confident in continuing moderate rainfall through Monday night Downeast, and for a shorter period into cntrl/ntn ME, but would like to see greater deep moisture values to increase QPF or rates. Wind will also be a notable concern. As downstream spreading of isobars occurs over northern Quebec and the Maritimes, the parent low pressure system will continue to strengthen with intensifying low-level jet along the eastern US coastline. Focus of winds will be running into the Downeast coastline Monday night. Surface gusts would be greatest along the immediate coast, close to 60 mph. Inland, winds appear to drop off, but the LLJ will still be roaring overhead around 80kts. If convective elements do form with heavy rain, some higher gusts could mix in further inland Downeast. NAM guidance currently indicates pockets of elevated instability, 80-160 j/kg, during this time frame. Precip will be tapering to showers Tuesday morning as dry air moves in behind. Most of the remaining moisture focuses along the coast as cold front sweeps through shifting winds from the west. Due to slow moving upper trough and strong SW/NE oriented jet, a boundary with moisture will reside off the east coast. This feature exhibits little eastward progression through Wednesday, providing the chance for rain showers to transition to light snow after cooler air passes through the state. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure pushed into the Ohio Valley and east towards the coast Thursday. This will provide a couple days of dry weather from Crown to coast. Temperatures in the air mass will be cold however, with highs on Thursday in the lower teens across the north and lower 20s Downeast. Overnight lows, similarly cold, in the single digits below in the north to lower teens Downeast. The next system approaches during the weekend, although there continues to be disagreement for timing, progression, and evolution. This will play a role in precip type and amounts. With residual cold air in place, easterly winds will hamper warm surface temps. Will need to watch for mixed precip, namely freezing rain, once guidance converges on a consistent track. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected to diminish to MVFR late tonight. Downeast terminals likely to rmn VFR through about 15z before dropping to MVFR after this time. LLWS at 2kft expected mainly at southern terminals. SHORT TERM: Monday night...IFR to LIFR expected with rain. Strong south to southwest winds expected (especially BGR and BHB) with significant low level wind shear likely. Fog is also possible. Tuesday to Tuesday night...IFR to start the period with south to southwest winds shifting west-northwest with a frontal passage overnight. Precipitation may transition to snow and prolong IFR/LIFR conditions with the greatest chance along the coast during the evening and overnight hours. Wednesday to Wednesday night...Mainly VFR with localized MVFR in light snow showers. Light to modestly breezy west winds are expected. Thursday to Thursday night...VFR conditions are expected with gusty west-northwest winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds wl increase to gale force this evening and diminish after 12z Mon morning. Winds wl remain above SCA levels through the day before ramping up toward gales toward the end of the period. Seas will increase toward 10ft late tonight and remain elevated thru the day tomorrow. SHORT TERM: Gusts to storm force are expected Monday night and a storm watch is in effect through 12z Tuesday. Patchy fog. Seas upwards of 15 feet in the outer waters, 7 to 10 feet closer to outer coastline. Winds will decrease rapidly and seas soon thereafter Tuesday into Tuesday night, with small craft advisory criteria likely being met through at least Wednesday night. Winds and seas drop below SCA by Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. Surge from income storm Monday will be out of phase with already low astronomical tides, thus coastal spashover will be minor/limited during high tides. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ011-015>017-032. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Foisy Short Term...Cornwell Long Term...Cornwell Aviation...Farrar/Foisy/Cornwell Marine...Farrar/Foisy/Cornwell is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.