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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 151029
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from Quebec will track to the north of the area
today with a cold front crossing the region tonight. After an
upper level trough slowly moves across northern Maine Wednesday
and Thursday, high pressure will build in for the end of the
week. Low pressure from the Great Lakes will approach Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:29 AM Update...
No significant changes were made with this update. The main
change was to update the 6 hourly QPF block from 6 to 12z with
values that more closely match current observations,
particularly along the coast where rainfall has underperformed
model estimates. Fog is currently observed from Millinocket to
Greenville and along the coast, with visibility nearing a
quarter mile in spots. Radar shows scattered, mainly light
showers across the area as of 1025z. Showers will be off and on
through the morning, with increasing coverage expected this
afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
Showers, drizzle, and patchy fog continue this morning as an
upper level trough digs into the interior Northeast. A deep
layer of moisture continues to move northward on the eastern
side of the trough with precipitable water (PWAT) values around
1.25 across much of the forecast area this morning. Surface
dew points, which are in the 50s as of 8z, will rise into the
upper 50s to low 60s by this afternoon, yielding a skinny 500 to
1000 j/kg of MLCAPE. As a result, more numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area this
afternoon. Convective allowing model (CAM) guidance currently
shows a line of convection developing across the Central
Highlands into northeastern Aroostook County along a pre-frontal
surface trough. Corfidi vectors suggest potential for training
cells and a very slow eastward storm motion along this line. The
combination of training storms, skinny CAPE, and high mean
tropospheric relative humidity/PWATs will lead to locally heavy
rainfall and potential for localized flooding. CAMs also
indicate a secondary area of showers and thunderstorms
developing along coast and into Washington County that will need
to be monitored, especially over areas that saw heavy rain and
flooding last week since soil moisture will be higher over these
locations. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures
slightly cooler compared to yesterday with highs in the lower
70s across most of the forecast area.

Patchy fog will redevelop overnight with lowering ceilings ahead
of a cold front. The cold front will arrive after midnight and
into early Wednesday morning, leading to a rapid clearing of
showers, low clouds, and fog from west to east by daybreak. Lows
have trended slightly cooler into the 40s across the northwest
where skies should clear prior to sunrise. Along and southeast
of I-95 and US-1, clouds are forecast to hang on until around
or after sunrise with lows remaining in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc cold front wl be into NB Wed morning with showers east of the
border by 12z. Upr lvl low and associated trof wl rmn over Quebec
for the next 24-36 hrs. As upr lvl features rotate over the region,
expect that diurnal showers wl plague the nrn half of the area Wed
and Thu as H5 cold pool drifts acrs. Because showers and cldy conds
linger acrs the north temps wl rmn blo normal, with highs in the 60s
acrs the north. Downeast areas wl rmn in the 70s with offshore flow
and mostly sunny skies expected each day.

Upr lvl ridge wl begin to build in Thu evening bringing pcpn to an
end. Skies wl clear Thu night and light winds wl promote temps
falling into the 40s acrs majority of the FA by Fri morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging wl begin to break down Fri afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and
return flow wl allow highs to quickly rebound into the 80s with
showers dvlpng acrs wrn areas in diurnal htg.

The fcst for the weekend is highly-dependent on potential tropical
cyclone development in the Gulf. Hv sided with NBM hichc-likely
pops acrs the region from Sat morning thru Sun afternoon. Hv
continued with mention of thunder Sat aftn and evening with
elevated instability present ahead of sfc bndry. There is the
potential for moisture to be entrained from the GOM system and
this wl determine how much qpf wl fall acrs the area over the
weekend, along with the possibility of any heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR with showers through about 6z tonight,
improving to VFR after midnight tonight. LIFR is possible in
fog, particularly Downeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected this afternoon. S winds 5 to 15 kt, shifting NW
after midnight.

SHORT TERM: Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible over northern
terminals each afternoon in showers. WNW 5-15kts.

Thu night-Fri...VFR. SW 5-10kts.

Fri night-Sat...MVFR and localized IFR in -shra and -tsra. S
5-10kts gusting to 15kts Sat afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through
the period. Patchy to areas of fog are expected through the
period along with intermittent showers, drizzle, and isolated
thunderstorms. The primary wave group will continue to be a
south to southeast swell with a period around 7 seconds.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds below SCA levels through the end of
the week. Seas and winds will be at marginal levels Sat morning.
Visibility restrictions in patchy fog Wed morning.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...MStrauser
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...MStrauser/Farrar
Marine...MStrauser/Farrar