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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 130214
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
914 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will cross the region Thursday then exit
across the Maritimes Friday. A cold front will cross the region
Friday night through early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
9:14 pm update: It is 15 below at Estcourt Station as of 9 pm
and 5 above at Frenchville. Most of the valleys across northwest
Maine are 5 to 15 below, and there are no signs of any stratus
on satellite. The ridge axis is across western New England and
it will build east to the western Maine/Quebec border by
morning. Across the eastern zones, it will take some more time
for the lower levels to fully decouple, but that should happen
after midnight and once the wind becomes very light/calm temps
will drop sharply. Made some tweaks to the hourly temperatures
and a couple of minor tweaks to the overnight lows, but overall
the ongoing forecast is in good shape.

Previous discussion:
Cold sfc hipres centered ovr nrn Quebec evident on IR imagery. Max
temps hv likely been reached for the day and with strong north winds
contg this evng, arctic air wl cont to mv in. Ridge axis wl lkly
result in clr skies and lgt winds with valleys decoupling tonight.
Mins by morning may rival the coldest temps of the season with far
NW zones appchg -30F. Only fly in the ointment wl be how quickly we
can lose the moisture/clouds fm the St. Lawrence and wl need to be
watched closely for tonight. Coastal areas lkly to drop to near 0F
and possibly a degree or two blo in some locations.

Hipres wl slide offshore thru the day Thur allowing sfc winds to
back twd the southwest. Highs tomorrow wl lkly be warmer than tda
with highs near 20 acrs the north and m20s/nr 30 ovr Downeast. Skies
wl be sunny throughout the day with light westerly winds expected
everywhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast confidence continues to increase for this period with
stronger ensemble and deterministic model support for most of
the rain with the Friday night into Saturday coastal wave
staying well south of the region as the northern stream
shortwave will be the dominate mid-level features. On Friday the
strong SW return flow still looks to be on par which will warm
the boundary layer to above freezing for the Penobscot Valley
region and Downeast with even far Northern Maine getting close
to the freezing point. This will feel nice after the past week
cold snap. Mid and high clouds will quickly invade the region by
Friday afternoon as teh 500mb shortwave begins to approach from
Quebec province. With the combination of warm air advection from
the SW and cloud cover, temperatures aren`t expected to fall
off much Friday night, have trended temperatures up due to this.
Still low confidence in the QPF for Friday night into Saturday
morning with the weak cold front pushing through, but the
ensemble mean is only around .10" across the north with .05" for
Downeast, thus nothing significant. Precip type will be
difficult, but based on the warming low levels and 925mb temps
surging well above freezing across Downeast and Bangor region
just went with a rain/snow mix and kept it all snow across the
north with thermal profiles just cold enough to support some wet
snow. Over accumulations across the north look very light maybe
an inch at worst at this time. During the day on Saturday the
cold front pushes through the area with cold air advection all
day during the day, temperature guidance continues to trend
down on Saturday with morning temperatures possible being the
warmest readings of the day. It will be mostly dry with a few
flurries for the Northwoods.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A high pressure ridge will be extended across the region at the
start of the period through Monday evening. A low and
associated front will track east across the Gulf of Maine waters
bringing chance for some snowshowers to the Downeast coast
Monday evening. The ridge will build back across the region and
remain through Wednesday evening. A low moving SE out of the
Hudson Bay region will begin to influence NW Maine by the end of
the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the ECMWF solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for the next 24 hrs. There could be some
temporary restrictions to vis by sunrise on Thursday as an
inversion will trap smoke in valleys.

SHORT TERM: No significant aviation impacts expected at this
time Friday through the weekend. There could be some MVFR cigs
Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak cold front pushes
through the area. Clouds will be thinning by late Saturday
morning, with clearing expected for KBHB and KBGR during the
day. High pressure will dominate the area Sunday with no impacts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA continues through midnight tonight with gusts aoa
25kts. Winds will slowly drop after this time, though may linger
above advisory levels for 1-2 hours after midnight.

SHORT TERM: Winds could begin to approach SCA conditions on
Friday out ahead of an approaching cold front. Cold front will
push off the waters by Saturday morning with a wind shift to the
NW with winds once again approaching SCA conditions.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar
Short Term...Dumont
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Dumont
Marine...CB/Farrar/Dumont