National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 150542
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
142 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak occluded front will cross the area tonight followed by
high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure will
intensify off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and quickly
track north into the Gulf of Maine Thursday morning. The low
will continue northeast across the Maritimes Friday. High
pressure will return Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
140 AM Update: Front has made its way through most of northern
Maine, last band of showers is moving through the eastern border
towns and cities currently. Skies gradually clear behind, with
some overcast skies lingering towards the Bangor region and
interior Downeast. Made minor changes to the ongoing forecast to
reflect the past few hours of observed data and the latest
radar and near term sky coverage trends. Added the chance of
some patchy fog later tonight/early Tues morning as it is
developing across portions of eastern Quebec that have cleared
from clouds.

Previous discussion:
The evening will begin mostly clear in the northwest with a
partly to mostly cloudy sky east. A weak occluded front will
quickly approach. Stratus from south central and southwestern
Maine may spread north this evening ahead of the front bringing
low cloudiness. The front will then cross the area late this
evening bringing a band of light showers through, mostly across
the north. Some clearing will return late tonight following the
passage of the front and ahead of high pressure building to our
southwest. The high will be just to our south on Tuesday
bringing a sunny to partly cloudy and seasonably cool day across
the area. Some high cloudiness may begin to stray into
northwestern areas late in the day along a warm front ahead of a
large trough approaching from the Great Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday Night...High pressure overhead Tuesday night. With good
radiational cooling, looking for patchy valley fog. Went a bit
cooler than most guidances, as guidance, especially raw model
temps, tend to be too warm in valleys on nights with good
decoupling.

Wednesday...High pressure moves east of the area with southerly
flow returning. Remaining dry with highs in the 50s.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...Potent upper trough approaches
from the west, and with good upper jet support, looking for
possible bombogenesis somewhere in the Northeast or Gulf of
Maine Wednesday night. The potentially intense low pressure then
maintains strength as it moves northeast through Maine or the
Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Models are in okay agreement, but
there are still important issues to be resolved in timing,
track, and intensity. General model trend is for a
slower and slightly more westerly track and this forecast
package reflects this trend. GFS and GEFS are on the fast side.
Operational ECMWF is slower. ECMWF ensembles are all over the
place on intensity and track, but tend to favor the slower
solution of the operational ECMWF. UKMET and Canadian models are
more in the middle. There are also some models that have more
of a dual-low structure while others have a more consolidated
low. Shied away from GFS/GEFS and went more with slower
UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian solution. This would track the low to the
Boston to Portland region late Wednesday night, then northeast
along the Maine coast Thursday into early Thursday evening
before exiting into the Canadian Maritimes. Rain would be fairly
heavy mainly on Thursday...probably over an inch...but with
antecedent dry conditions flooding isn`t a huge concern.
Potential is there for decent winds. Think that warning level
winds are unlikely, and that advisory level winds a more likely
bet. Wind could knock a lot of leaves off the trees, so get out
soon to enjoy the foliage! Not anticipating anything more than
minor coastal erosion at this point, but bears watching. No snow
threat except at the highest elevations like atop Katahdin.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Nor`easter kicks out to the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night
and we dry out. Cool and breezy Friday behind the system.

Weekend is shaping up quite nice with high confidence in high
pressure. Model agreement quite good in no precip for the
weekend. Temps fairly close to average. Next rain chance comes
around Monday night or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Tonight: Conditions will lower to MVFR at the Aroostook County
terminals this evening in lower clouds and a few showers, with
brief IFR possible. Conditions will improve to VFR early Tue
morning. At the Downeast terminals, IFR to MVFR conditions
tonight will improve to VFR early Tue morning.

Tuesday: VFR. Light west wind.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday Night... Patchy valley fog with local IFR/MVFR.

Wednesday...VFR with light wind.

Wednesday Night...VFR early with increasing SE breeze. MVFR/IFR
with rain developing late in the night Downeast.

Thursday...Windy and rainy with mostly IFR or worse.

Thursday Night and Friday...Windy with conditions improving to
MVFR/VFR Thursday night and mostly VFR Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The Wind and seas are expected to be below small
craft advisory levels through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Wind begins to increase late Wednesday ahead of the
next system, increasing to a Likelihood for gales mainly late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Can`t totally rule out storm
force winds. Seas to around 8 feet, though quite a bit of
uncertainty depending on strength and track of the system.
Small craft persisting into Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/Cornwell
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Bloomer/Cornwell/Foisy
Marine...Bloomer/Cornwell/Foisy