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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 211008
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
608 AM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the area Today. Low pressure
will approach Tonight and lift north of the area Wednesday. The
low will pull a cold front across the region Wednesday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update 6:00 AM: Have adjusted temperature and dew point based on
latest observations. No other changes.

Strong high pressure will remain over the area today and will
bring sunny and dry conditions to the area. Intensifying low
pressure will pass to the west of New England Tonight and will
result in showers moving into western areas towards morning.
Temperature will be in the mid to upper 70s today and in the mid
50s for lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled day Wednesday as a potent surface low pressure passes
by to our northwest, sending an occluded front through in the
morning, followed by a cold front toward sunset. Could be a few
storms right ahead of the cold front, but not expecting
anything strong or severe. Most areas will see a wetting rain
with generally 0.3 to 0.6 inches of rain.

Cooler, drier airmass works in Wednesday night into Thursday
with breezy conditions. Stratocumulus should persist Thursday
mainly across the north, and went higher than models for
cloudcover in the north Thursday due to a known sunny bias on
days like Thursday. High pressure works into New England
Thursday night with cool temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm and somewhat muggy weekend in store as south/southwest flow
returns as the high pressure moves off to our east. Eventually
rain chances return late Sunday into Monday, though models
differ on timing and amount of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today and tonight.


SHORT TERM: IFR early Wednesday most areas, probably only
improving to MVFR most areas in the afternoon. Rapid improvement
to VFR Wednesday evening as a cold front passes through.
Generally VFR Thursday to Saturday. Could be some MVFR ceilings
far Northern Maine on Thursday at times, though.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for winds.
For waves: The primary wave system through tonight will be long
period southerly swell (around 2 feet/8 seconds) accompanied by
southeasterly wind wave (less than 1 foot).

SHORT TERM: Seas likely building to 5 to 6 feet Wednesday night.
South winds ahead of the cold front during the day Wednesday
could also approach small craft levels. Quieter conditions late
Thursday into Saturday with high pressure.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Mignone/Foisy
Marine...Mignone/Foisy