Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 061147 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 647 AM EST Sat Mar 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will remain across the Maritimes today while high pressure builds west of the region. High pressure will build toward the region later Sunday, then cross the region Sunday night through Monday. An occluded front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will build Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 650am Update...Backed off on snow shower onset across the north to mainly this afternoon into evening. Higher terrain near the St Lawrence River is doing a number on lower clouds, keeping them at bay. This bank has been threatening the Crown of Maine all night, but loses its form shortly before the northern ME towns. This is expected to change come the mid afternoon as lapse rates improve and an embedded wave of energy crosses the area. Then, the chance of showers/flurries becomes greater. Loaded latest observations, with lowest temps coming out of Masardis (-13) and Nine Mile Bridge (-9) so far this morning. Prev Discussion... Broad low pressure will continue to pivot across the Maritimes today. The tight pressure gradient will again create a breezy day, along with some scattered snow showers across the north. While much of the loose snow on the ground has largely been exhausted from warming and refreezing during the day and previous windy days, some new snow from the snow showers today could be blown around. This will most likely last from the mid- afternoon hours to the late evening before winds wind down. Hi- res models have been showing a brief band of snow dropping through the Saint John Valley later today. However, soundings support at least the mention of flurries through the greater part of late morning through afternoon given low level moisture and minor shortwaves moving through the broader WNW flow. Wind and clouds sticking around this evening across the north will prevent much temp falloff, but clearing skies are anticipated after midnight. The North Woods will likely see another night of temps in the single digits below zero, with above zero readings for remainder of Northern/Eastern Maine. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface/upper level low pressure will remain near Labrador Sunday with an upper level trof extending back across the region. Surface high pressure will begin to build across the region later Sunday. Generally expect partly sunny skies north, mostly sunny Downeast, Sunday. High pressure will cross the region Sunday night through Monday. Expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies across northern areas Sunday night into Monday, with mostly clear skies Downeast. An occluded front will approach later Monday night. Clouds will increase in advance of the front Monday night, with a chance of snow showers late across mostly the north and mountains. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Sunday, with near normal level temperatures Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The occluded front will cross the region early Tuesday, with building high pressure late. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across northern areas early Tuesday, then a partly sunny afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies across Downeast areas Tuesday. High pressure will ridge across the region at both the surface and aloft Wednesday with partly sunny skies. High pressure will exit across the Maritimes early Thursday. A cold front will cross the region later Thursday into Friday. Expect a chance of rain showers in advance of the front Thursday into early Thursday night. Will then have a chance of rain/snow showers with the front later Thursday night into Friday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday, with much above normal level temperatures Wednesday/Thursday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR at Downeast terminals through tonight, west winds gusting up to 15/20kt this afternoon. Across Aroostook terminals, VFR with MVFR vis in -SHSN possible later this afternoon with flurries through the morning. Most shower activity is expected to remain at FVE and CAR. SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR, occasional MVFR, conditions across the north and mountains. VFR Downeast. Northwest/west wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Northwest/west wind 10 to 15 knots. Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early with a chance of snow showers, then VFR. Northwest/west wind 10 to 15 knots. Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR. Light winds Tuesday night. South/southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will remain below SCA criteria but breezy with W wind becoming NW tonight. Light freezing spray this morning and tonight. Waves becoming 2 to 3 ft. SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels Sunday, then again later Monday into Monday night. Small craft advisory conditions possible Sunday night through early Monday. Light freezing spray early Sunday, then again Sunday night into early Monday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Cornwell Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Cornwell/Norcross Marine...Cornwell/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.