Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 051409 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1009 AM EDT Tue Jul 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will approach today, cross the region tonight, then exit through the Maritimes on Wednesday. High pressure will cross the region later Wednesday into Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Friday. High pressure will build toward the region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1010 am update... Cirrus is beginning to thicken up acrs far swrn zones this morning with areas to the north of Baxter remaining mostly sunny as of 14z. Surface low pressure, which will cross the region late tonight, is currently located over Lake Huron with warm front extending into upstate NY at this time. Sfc low wl continue tracking east along boundary this afternoon with high clouds increasing over entire FA by 18z with low clouds moving in fm the west after 00z this evening. Cannot rule out an isold sprinkle or shower early this aftn but think the steadier rain will hold off until later this aftn or evng as sfc low approaches. Only minor tweaks to sky cover to go more optimistic this morning acrs the north. No other chgs needed with this update. Previous Discussion: Mostly to partly sunny skies this morning will give way to increasing clouds throughout the day as low pressure over the Great Lakes moves east towards Maine. The initial sunshine will be enough to warm a majority of the area well into the 70s. This will generate a modest amount of instability beneath a capping inversion just above 10,000 feet, resulting in convective showers by this afternoon, particularly near and northeast of Mount Katahdin. Steadier rain will overspread western areas late this afternoon, then reach the rest of the area by midnight. Surface convergence along a boundary from around Greenville through Millinocket will produce locally heavier rainfall along and north of the boundary, with amounts in excess of an inch forecast. A small amount of leftover instability from daytime heating may also contribute to some heavier rainfall rates. Rainfall amounts will generally be around a half inch to one inch elsewhere, though slightly lower amounts are possible around and southwest of Bangor. Low temperatures tonight will be relatively mild given the cloud cover and rain, ranging from near 60 around Bangor to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure across the southern part of our region will track east into southern New Brunswick Wednesday morning. Some rain will linger across eastern and northern areas early Wednesday morning, then diminish as the shortwave and low continue away into the Maritimes on Wednesday and high pressure begins to build in from the west. This will allow clouds to decrease giving way to a mostly sunny afternoon. High pressure will crest over the area Wednesday night bringing a calm and clear moonlit night. The moist ground may allow some patchy valley fog to form late at night. High pressure will slowly slide southeast of the area Thursday as a light return flow from the south begins. The high and upper ridging will bring a mostly sunny day Thursday. A new shortwave will be dropping southeast through central Canada Thursday night pushing a cold front toward the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will push into the area Friday morning, likely before the days heating, bringing some showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm. The best chance for thunder may be over the far northwest where a low level jet across the St. Lawrence valley may feed into the front first thing in the morning. Otherwise, some showers and isolated thunderstorms will push across the area Friday followed by partial clearing. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night pushing moderately cooler air south into our region. Temperatures will drop into the 40s across the north and the 50s Downeast by early Saturday morning. High pressure will bring a mostly sunny sky Downeast on Saturday while cool air aloft brings cumulus across the north on Saturday bringing a partly sunny and cool day over northern areas. Saturday night into Sunday will bring northwest flow aloft between a trough to our northeast and ridging building into the midwest. This will bring a partly cloudy and cool night Saturday night followed by a partly sunny day on Sunday. A weak shortwave sliding southeast in the upper flow may set off a couple showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm on Sunday during the afternoon. Surface high pressure will slide southeast of the area Sunday night into Monday. This will allow a return southwesterly flow to set up on Monday channeling warmer and more humid air north into the region. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Today...VFR. Tempo MVFR visibility is possible in showers this afternoon. WSW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to around 15-18kts. Tonight...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain, heavy at times from KGNR to KMLT to KHUL. N winds 5-10 kts across northern terminals. SW winds 5-15kts at southern terminals. LLWS possible along the coast. SHORT TERM: Wednesday...IFR north and MVFR south early, improving to VFR south by late morning and VFR north by midday. N wind. Wednesday night...VFR. NW wind. Thursday...VFR. light W wind becoming SW. Thursday night...VFR dropping to MVFR. S wind. Friday...MVFR early, becoming VFR. NW wind. Friday night...VFR. NW wind. Saturday...VFR. NW to W wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels today before increasing to advisory levels tonight, particularly after midnight. Visibility will be reduced in rain tonight. Patchy fog is possible towards daybreak Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Wind and seas should remain below SCA through this week. Humid air over the waters may result in some fog and mist early Wednesday. Visibilities should improve later Wednesday through late week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Buster/MStrauser Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Buster/MStrauser/Bloomer Marine...Buster/MStrauser/Bloomer

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