Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241107 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 607 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front dropping south across the region this morning will dissipate along the Downeast coast this afternoon. Low pressure will approach the area from the south on Saturday and track across Maine late Sunday and Sunday night. The low is expected to move east of the region by Monday and will be followed by weak high pressure Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:07 am update: Clouds will remain a challenge today. The stratus across the eastern Saint John Valley south to near Houlton has scattered out in some spots, but there are more low clouds in northwest New Brunswick may slip south back into the area. Overall, forecast confidence on cloud cover is low this morning across the northern third of the FA. Across the southern 2/3s of the FA there are mostly just high level clouds. Made some adjustments to the sky grids and temperatures for this morning, otherwise no major changes at this time. Previous discussion: A weak cold front is pushing south across the FA early this morning and will dissipate this afternoon across the Downeast Region. A strong ridge of sfc high pressure in central Quebec will build east with high centers in eastern Quebec and across northern Nova Scotia by 12Z Saturday morning. There will be a wedge of cooler and drier air across northern areas today with a partly to mostly sunny sky across the far north after some morning clouds. There will be more clouds to the south with the remains of the frontal boundary. Highs this afternoon will range from the m/u 20s north to the m/u 30s in the Greater Bangor Region. Partly cloudy tonight with lows mostly in the single digits north to the teens south. A light wind regime is expected through tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Sat will be fair, but with low cldnss with return SE flow arnd departing sfc hi pres beginning erly abv the BL. Deeper hi and mid cldnss abv the low cldnss will ovrsprd the Rgn from the W Sat ngt as sfc low pres from the great lks apchs. Most models cont a warmer trend with this system, with fzra, perhaps mixed with sleet N and W, movg across the FA by late Sat ngt. Downeast areas will likely be warm enough for msly rn with this event. Warmer Sfc-BL temps will move nwrd ovr Ern ptns of the FA durg the day Sun, with precip turning to rn perhaps as far as NE Aroostook county by aftn. Ovr the NW, enough llvl cold air may hold on for fzra to cont into the erly aftn, then mix with or chg to sn by late aftn. This transition to sn or sn shwrs will then slowly work ESE ovr the rest of the FA Sun ngt without going back to any fzra as the upper low apchs from the WSW. Given uncertainties of precip type with this event, there is low confidence with regard to ice, sleet or sn amts attm, and these should be better refined by tomorrow attm. What we can say with more certainty is that we will need wntr wx advs spcly for Cntrl and Nrn ptns of the FA late Sat ngt into Sun. Given the potential of mixed precip and even rn, temps will be much abv Jan avgs for this ptn of the fcst. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sn shwrs will cont on Mon as the upper low moves E of the FA with the llvl air mass not arctic. Any remaining sn shwrs Mon ngt should end by Tue morn as the both the sfc and upper low move E ovr the open N Atlc. This will leave ptly to msly cldy skies thru the mid week with slowly cooling temps Tue thru Thu. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings at times this morning from KPQI north to KFVE, otherwise, VFR today into this evening. MVFR ceilings will likely develop later tonight at the Downeast terminals along with some patchy late night fog. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sat and Sat eve MVFR clgs and lgt Winds. Late Sat ngt thru Sun IFR clgs/vsbys with mixed precip Nrn TAF sites and Rn Downeast. Sun Ngt thru Mon: IFR clgs/vsbys in sn Nrn TAF sites and MVFR clgs/vsbys with sct rn/sn shwrs. Mon ngt and Tue: MVFR clgs/vsbys with sct sn shwrs N and low VFR clgs Downeast. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns for Sat, then winds and seas ramp up to low end gales on our outer waters and strong SCA for our inner bay/harbor waters late Sat ngt into Sun morn. Winds and/or wvs will then subside to SCA later Sun and then slowly below SCA by Mon ngt. Used blended model wv guidance for fcst wv hts. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...CB/VJN Marine...CB/VJN

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