Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210656 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 156 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from the Great Lakes will approach tonight and cross the area on Thursday. High pressure will build in from the west on Friday then crest south of the area Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 130AM Update: Snow is rapidly approaching the forecast area and will cover the entire forecast area by 4-5am. For Bangor, Downeast, and Piscataquis County, the bulk of the snow will fall by 7am. Three to four inches will accumulate in those areas by that time. A review of 00Z guidance and our current analysis still indicates the previously advertised 4 to 6 inches across the area. Remote NW Aroostook may fall a bit short of that threshold while Washington County is most likely to have any 6-inch reports when the event is over. Previous discussion: High pressure siting just offshore of New England with sfc low ovr ern SD. High pressure wl scoot to the east tonight as upr low shifts parent low into the Great Lakes ovrngt. This wl set the stage for upglide and light snow mvg into the CWA around midnight. Shield of cirrus currently affecting Downeast areas but is still clr acrs the north and St. John Vly. Will take into the evng for clds to mv in acrs the far north with temps dropping quickly for the first 2- 3 hrs this evng bfr lvlg off and beginning to rise aft 06z. Snow wl continue thru the bulk of the mrng hrs bfr tapering off in the aftn fm SW to NE. Rain wl mix with and eventually chg to rain acrs the coast around noon. Question centers arnd whether snow growth lyr can hold onto moisture by late mrng-early aftn acrs the south and whether patchy drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle wl lkly be falling at the end of the event as main pcpn exits into New Brunswick. For the time being hv gone with rain/snow with only minor accums aft 18z. Nrn zones wl hold onto snow the longest as moisture wraps in bhnd parent low. 24-hr QPF amnts fm all guidance thru 00z Fri averages btwn 0.25-0.35" with a consistent 3-5 inches of snow areawide. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure will be exiting through the Maritimes Thursday night as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Some light snow showers or flurries may be across the north Thursday night, mainly early, otherwise the north will remain mostly cloudy with Downeast becoming mostly clear. A band of moisture across the north will keep the sky partly to mostly cloudy north on Friday with Downeast mostly sunny. High pressure building in, and cresting just south of the area, will then bring a clear to partly cloudy and cold night Friday night. High pressure will slide south of the region Saturday as some moisture wrapping in behind the high, over a ridge crossing the east, and ahead of low pressure in the Plains begins to move across the north. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky across the north Saturday morning and over the rest of the area during the midday and afternoon. Saturday should remain mostly dry although some very light patchy snow may begin to stray into northwestern areas toward the end of the day as moisture thickens up over the north. Tranquil conditions can be expected with high pressure nearby to the south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Our focus later in the weekend will be on a very large storm system lifting north through the Great Lakes. Snow should spread across our area overnight Saturday night as the low lifts into the northern Great Lakes pulling ample moisture toward the region. Deep low pressure will lift into southwest Ontario on Sunday as a weak triple point secondary low begins to form near southern New England. The very large low will pull warm air northward in the mid and upper levels while the weak secondary surface low holds cold air in near the surface. This will result in precipitation changing to sleet north and freezing rain in southern areas. By the end of the day Sunday enough warm air should work in to change precipitation over to rain or showers across Downeast and central areas while snow and sleet hang on over the far north. From there, the forecast becomes less certain and will ultimately depend on how quickly the secondary low develops and where it tracks. A continuation of snow is favored over the north Sunday night with rain possibly going back over to wet snow over the higher elevations of central areas. Strong northwest winds, and snow showers over the north, will follow Monday into Monday night. Tuesday should then be dry and continued windy. A small system may bring some snow for mid week next week. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR tonight will lower to IFR after 07z for Downeast terminals and eventually LIFR after 09z. Further north VFR gives way to IFR by 09z. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions across the north and VFR conditions Downeast are likely Thursday night. VFR conditions Downeast and MVFR to VFR conditions across the north are expected Friday into Friday night. Conditions should lower to MVFR across the entire area Saturday, then drop to IFR Saturday night through Monday as a large storm affects the area. Conditions should improve to MVFR then VFR Monday night and be VFR Tuesday. Winds will be strong and gusty late in the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will settle below SCA levels tonight before increasing to 25 kts and over 5ft by mid-morning Thur. SCA in effect from 15z Thur-12z Friday. SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Thursday night for northwest winds gusting up to 30 kt. Winds should then dip below SCA Friday into Saturday night as high pressure slides south of the area. A SCA will likely be needed Sunday for southeast winds, possibly increasing to gale. A gale may then be needed Sunday night through Monday for strong gusty westerly winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A high astronomical tide will occur around noon on Thursday. 16.92 ft MLLW at Cutler and 22.46 ft MLLW at Eastport will combine with southerly flow and about a half foot of storm surge to result in minor splashover along the Washington County coast. A coastal flood statement has been issued from 16z-18z. Lower water levels expected along the Hancock County coast given the timing of the low pressure system but coastal flood statement may need to be issued for this zone as we get closer to Thur morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Farrar Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...CB/Farrar/Bloomer Marine...CB/Farrar/Bloomer Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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