Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151029 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 629 AM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure from Quebec will track to the north of the area today with a cold front crossing the region tonight. After an upper level trough slowly moves across northern Maine Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure will build in for the end of the week. Low pressure from the Great Lakes will approach Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:29 AM Update... No significant changes were made with this update. The main change was to update the 6 hourly QPF block from 6 to 12z with values that more closely match current observations, particularly along the coast where rainfall has underperformed model estimates. Fog is currently observed from Millinocket to Greenville and along the coast, with visibility nearing a quarter mile in spots. Radar shows scattered, mainly light showers across the area as of 1025z. Showers will be off and on through the morning, with increasing coverage expected this afternoon. Previous Discussion... Showers, drizzle, and patchy fog continue this morning as an upper level trough digs into the interior Northeast. A deep layer of moisture continues to move northward on the eastern side of the trough with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 1.25 across much of the forecast area this morning. Surface dew points, which are in the 50s as of 8z, will rise into the upper 50s to low 60s by this afternoon, yielding a skinny 500 to 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE. As a result, more numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area this afternoon. Convective allowing model (CAM) guidance currently shows a line of convection developing across the Central Highlands into northeastern Aroostook County along a pre-frontal surface trough. Corfidi vectors suggest potential for training cells and a very slow eastward storm motion along this line. The combination of training storms, skinny CAPE, and high mean tropospheric relative humidity/PWATs will lead to locally heavy rainfall and potential for localized flooding. CAMs also indicate a secondary area of showers and thunderstorms developing along coast and into Washington County that will need to be monitored, especially over areas that saw heavy rain and flooding last week since soil moisture will be higher over these locations. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures slightly cooler compared to yesterday with highs in the lower 70s across most of the forecast area. Patchy fog will redevelop overnight with lowering ceilings ahead of a cold front. The cold front will arrive after midnight and into early Wednesday morning, leading to a rapid clearing of showers, low clouds, and fog from west to east by daybreak. Lows have trended slightly cooler into the 40s across the northwest where skies should clear prior to sunrise. Along and southeast of I-95 and US-1, clouds are forecast to hang on until around or after sunrise with lows remaining in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Sfc cold front wl be into NB Wed morning with showers east of the border by 12z. Upr lvl low and associated trof wl rmn over Quebec for the next 24-36 hrs. As upr lvl features rotate over the region, expect that diurnal showers wl plague the nrn half of the area Wed and Thu as H5 cold pool drifts acrs. Because showers and cldy conds linger acrs the north temps wl rmn blo normal, with highs in the 60s acrs the north. Downeast areas wl rmn in the 70s with offshore flow and mostly sunny skies expected each day. Upr lvl ridge wl begin to build in Thu evening bringing pcpn to an end. Skies wl clear Thu night and light winds wl promote temps falling into the 40s acrs majority of the FA by Fri morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridging wl begin to break down Fri afternoon. Mostly sunny skies and return flow wl allow highs to quickly rebound into the 80s with showers dvlpng acrs wrn areas in diurnal htg. The fcst for the weekend is highly-dependent on potential tropical cyclone development in the Gulf. Hv sided with NBM hichc-likely pops acrs the region from Sat morning thru Sun afternoon. Hv continued with mention of thunder Sat aftn and evening with elevated instability present ahead of sfc bndry. There is the potential for moisture to be entrained from the GOM system and this wl determine how much qpf wl fall acrs the area over the weekend, along with the possibility of any heavy rainfall. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR with showers through about 6z tonight, improving to VFR after midnight tonight. LIFR is possible in fog, particularly Downeast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. S winds 5 to 15 kt, shifting NW after midnight. SHORT TERM: Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible over northern terminals each afternoon in showers. WNW 5-15kts. Thu night-Fri...VFR. SW 5-10kts. Fri night-Sat...MVFR and localized IFR in -shra and -tsra. S 5-10kts gusting to 15kts Sat afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through the period. Patchy to areas of fog are expected through the period along with intermittent showers, drizzle, and isolated thunderstorms. The primary wave group will continue to be a south to southeast swell with a period around 7 seconds. SHORT TERM: Seas and winds below SCA levels through the end of the week. Seas and winds will be at marginal levels Sat morning. Visibility restrictions in patchy fog Wed morning. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MStrauser Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...MStrauser/Farrar Marine...MStrauser/Farrar

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