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338
FXUS61 KCAR 091106
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
706 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit into the Maritimes today. Low pressure
will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our
north. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday. An
upper level trough will remain over the area Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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706 AM Update: Lingering rain showers continue across the north
this morning, with overcast skies persisting across the entire
forecast area as the surface low drifts eastward into the
Canadian Maritimes. The previous forecast remains on track with
no major adjustments needed.

Previous Discussion:
A surface low pressure system will continue to track towards
Nova Scotia early this morning, with NE winds around the
backside of the low persisting rain showers into the area,
particularly across the northern half of the forecast area. Some
gusty winds are possible this afternoon across the Downeast
region with gusts up to 25 mph, as this area is closer to the
departing low with a stronger pressure gradient aloft. As the
low departs, the threat for rain showers will gradually decrease
from west to east.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average for the
region under mostly cloudy skies, as highs only lift into upper
50s in NE Aroostook county due to downsloping winds, and lower
50s elsewhere. Tonight, lows will fall into the mid 30s with
skies beginning to clear across the north late tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trof stretches across Canada through the Great
Lakes bringing a low pressure across the Mid Atlantic states on
Friday. The high res model are trending drier with the HRRR
indicating possible convective showers in the afternoon with
upper level instability and daytime heating. The cooler airmass
should keep high temps in the mid to upper 50s. By Friday night,
surface high pressure should remain across the area . With the
decreasing clouds, light winds, and cold pool shown in the 925mb
model temps, surface temps could reach into the upper 30s.

By Saturday, the surface high pressure should weaken as the low
pressure system moves across the Mid Atlantic states and shifts
NE over the waters. The GFS models seems to be the only one
indicating showers in the afternoon. Decided to include some
slight chance showers in the east and over the waters. Models
show the cold pool sticking around longer during the day keeping
temps in the mid 50s. By Saturday night, models are in good
agreement with the system exiting to the Maritimes. However,
models are inconsistent with the QPF, with the GFS model shewing
a cold front moving across the state while the other models show
weakening shortwave energy. Decided to decrease rain showers
chances across the region. Temps expected in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large upper level trof should start to progress across New
England on Sunday which should bring in weak high pressure to
the region. As the upper level trof exits on Monday, surface
models indicate a possible occlusion with a triple point over
New England. Extended models are beginning to show some
consistency with the warm front setting up over the waters the
progressing north Tuesday through Tuesday night, though the
timing is still inconsistent. S flow through the midweek should
bring a warming trend with temps possibly reaching 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will continue across the north as
rain showers continue this morning, with brief periods of MVFR
possible in said showers. IFR to LIFR south of KHUL due to low
cigs, and BR closer to the coast limiting vis. Showers will
taper off through the day today, with improving conditions
towards VFR at all terminals by tonight. NW winds around 10 kts
today, gusting to 20 kts at Downeast terminals. Winds will
become light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR. ENE 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR, with ocnl MVFR in cigs and
possible showers. ENE 5-10kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR though may see MVFR in light
showers. NNE 5-10kts.

Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. SW 5-15kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will generally remain below small
craft advisory criteria today through tonight. On the outer
portion of our coastal zones, wind gusts may approach 25 kts
this afternoon through tonight, but frequent gusts to 25 kts are
unlikely.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will be marginal over the outer waters
Thursday into Friday evening and again on Saturday morning. Seas
will range from 2 to 4 feet and may approach 5ft on Sunday and
Sunday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash