Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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563 FXUS61 KCAR 250111 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 911 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will cross the region early tonight. High pressure will build down from the north later tonight and Sunday then cross the area Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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9:11 pm update: Cloud tops have warmed over the past couple of hours and the snow shower activity has diminished both in coverage and intensity. There are still a few snow showers, mainly across Piscataquis County as of 9 pm. Updated the PoP/Wx/QPF/Snowfall grids to reflect the trend in the snow shower activity. Other adjustments were very minor and based on the latest observations and expected forecast trends the remainder of the night. Previous discussion: An upper level disturbance and surface trof will cross the region early tonight, then exit to the south later tonight through early Sunday. High pressure will build south toward the region later Sunday. Snow showers will occur across the region early tonight, then diminish overnight with the loss of diurnal heating and the exiting upper level disturbance/surface trof. Localized snow accumulations of up to around an inch are possible across mostly northern/central portions of the forecast area early tonight, with little or no snow accumulation Downeast. Partly/mostly cloudy skies are expected across northern areas early Sunday, with mostly cloudy skies Downeast. Cloud cover will then decrease, from north to south, with building high pressure Sunday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper teens to lower 20s north, to the mid 20s interior Downeast with upper 20s along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the lower to mid 30s north, to the upper 30s Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Intense low pressure over the Atlantic south of the Maritimes is expected to move away to the east Sunday night. At the same time strong high pressure will be building in from the west and will crest over the region during the day Monday. Expect this system to bring dry conditions to the state Sunday night through the day Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure is expect to remain over the state into early Wednesday then gradually weaken and move away to the northeast. At the same time a cold front will approach from the west and spread showers and snow showers into the region later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be a function of diurnal temperatures in the north and mostly in the from of showers across the south. Another cold front is expected to move across the region Thursday and again Friday. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region tonight. Occasional MVFR or IFR conditions are possible across mostly western areas in snow showers late this evening. VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday, though occasional MVFR conditions are possible Downeast early. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Sunday night through Wednesday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Thursday.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight through Sunday. However, a few wind gusts could approach gale levels later tonight through early Sunday across the offshore waters. Visibilities will be reduced at times in rain/snow showers tonight. SHORT TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and GFS for sustained wind speed. For Waves: Northeast wind wave is expected to be the primary wave system Sunday night through the day Tuesday (3-5 feet/5-6 seconds) with a secondary long period southeasterly swell system (1-2 feet/10 seconds). Long period east to southeasterly swell (4-5 feet/14-15 seconds) is expected to become the primary wave system again late Tuesday as an intense Atlantic Storm generates a strong easterly fetch to the east of Nova Scotia. Will use NWPS for waves through Tuesday then transition to the Wave Watch III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.