Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180110 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 910 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region Friday night. This will lead to a cold night tonight with the potential for frost. Low pressure is expected to move across the region Saturday night into Sunday bringing rain to the state. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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9:10 pm update: A cold front just north of the Downeast coast will push offshore late this evening. High pressure over western Quebec will continue to build toward the region overnight and will settle into Maine Friday. A clear sky across the north as of 9 pm with a partly to mostly cloudy sky Downeast. The KGYX Radar is down so not seeing any returns on the MRMS radar, but an isolated shower is possible late this evening, mainly right along the coast and on the outer islands. Otherwise, expect the clouds to gradually clear out with the sky to become clear by morning at the coast. Frost and freezing temperatures are expected in the north, with patchy frost possible toward daybreak just to the north of Bangor. Made a few tweaks to the forecast, but overall it is in very good shape. Previous discussion: Gusty N-NW`ly winds will continue this afternoon, especially across central and northern areas, then diminish during the evening and overnight due to loss of diurnal heating and slackening pressure gradient. Winds are a bit lighter over much of Downeast, as the front remains stalled right near the coast, as predicted. A few showers are possible along the front later this afternoon into the evening, mainly over coastal parts of Hancock and Washington, as a weak disturbance may move along the front. The front will finally begin to push offshore later this evening, and any lingering shower activity would move offshore as well. The biggest concern in the near-term was the low temperature forecast tonight, particularly for Bangor metro and interior Downeast, where the growing season has already started. Not many changes were made to temperatures with this package. We continue to show rather small area and very short duration to any patchy frost in Zones 15-16-17, so no Frost Advisory will be issued as of now, and any patchy frost wording was left out of the zone forecasts for those zones. Fri will feature full sunshine, but cooler than normal as the Canadian high slides over the state.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Some rain expected for this term. Strong high pres is expected to slide into the Gulf of ME Friday night and then slide to the east by Saturday morning. Another chilly night but not nearly as cold as Thursday night due to clouds moving into the region. There is the risk of frost by early Saturday morning as temps across portions of Northern Maine and the Central Highlands hit the low to mid 30s. Saturday will see clouds on the increase as low pres from the Great Lakes region moves east. Temps will be held down some on Saturday due to the cloud cover and rain moving in by the afternoon, especially across the Downeast region and sw areas. Northern Maine looks to stay dry until Saturday evening. Temps on Saturday ware expected to be the warmest across the northern 3rd of the CWA as readings could hit the mid 60s. Elsewhere, lower 60s w/upper 50s for the coast. Rain looks like it will overspread the entire region Saturday night into early Sunday. The 12Z GFS looks like it came in line more w/the ECMWF and Canadian Global of showing low pres moving near the Downeast region and then into the Canadian Maritimes. This track would lend support for the heaviest rainfall to be across the Downeast region region and the Central Highlands. Decided on a blend of the guidance and brought 0.50 to 1.00" of rain to the aforementioned areas while 0.25 to 0.50 inches expected for the northern and western zones. The system looks like it is a quick mover and the region seeing the rain ending and clouds breaking up by Sunday afternoon. Decided to lean away from the ECMWF on Sunday and used a blend which included the CONSRAW for the daytime temps, leading to afternoon temps hitting well into the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... There could be some widely scattered showers around early Sunday night as the associated cold front slides across the region. High pres is forecast to slide across the region on Monday into Tuesday with near normal temps. There is some discrepancy on the potential for some rain/showers by mid week as the GFS continues to advertise low pres moving in bringing rain while the ECMWF and a number of its ensembles show a drier scenario w/low pres to the south. A look at the Canadian Global and its ensemble members showed support similar to the GFS. Attm, stayed closer to a blend and included 20-30% rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected at all sites through 00z Sat. SHORT TERM: VFR into early Saturday and then conditions go to MVFR by the afternoon especially from KHUL TO KBHB. Conditions look like they will deteriorate to IFR Saturday night into early Sunday for all terminals as it looks right now. Conditions will improve across KBGR and KBHB by midday Sunday while northern terminals look like they will hang on to ifr/MVFR cigs into early afternoon. Looks like VFR Sunday night into Monday for all terminals. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A light sw wind will will turn offshore and increase late this evening and overnight as a cold front pushes offshore, then gradually decrease during the day Fri as high pressure builds across the state. Gusts may approach 25kts overnight, but given the propensity for winds and gusts to be overestimated in the warmer months, conditions were kept below the SCA threshold. SHORT TERM: No headlines anticipated through Saturday. Changes look like they will come Saturday night into Sunday. SSE winds are forecast to increase 15 to 20 kts later Saturday into Saturday night w/seas building to 6-8 ft. This would lead to the possibility of a Small Craft Advisory. The wind direction will shift to the wsw on Sunday as low pres moves to the ne but will be dropping back in speeds(15 kt sustained). Seas look like they will stay up due to a swell component keeping heights in the 6 foot range. Conditions are forecast to improve Sunday night into Monday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Kredensor Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...CB/Kredensor/Hewitt Marine...CB/Kredensor/Hewitt

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