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063
FXUS61 KCAR 290722
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
322 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak low pressure will cross the area this morning then continue
into the Maritimes this afternoon. High pressure will build south of
the area tonight into Monday. A cold front will approach Monday
night and cross the area Tuesday. High pressure will follow for
Wednesday. Another cold front will cross the region Thursday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The upper trough which brought some rain to the area over the
weekend will quickly slide east into the Maritimes early this
morning. A weak surface trough will cross the area early to mid
morning with some showers, mostly over the north, supported by
surface convergence and lots of moisture lingering in the low
levels. This trough will slide east into the Maritimes later this
morning. Flow is very weak and low clouds will linger much of the
day. However, weak high pressure and the mixing of solar heating
should gradually begin to break up the low clouds from southwest to
northeast this afternoon. The day will end partly sunny over the
southwest, and still mostly cloudy but with some breaks of blue sky
over the northeast this afternoon.

Tonight will be partly cloudy and tranquil as weak high pressure
continues to build in. The calm air over damp ground will likely
result in some patchy fog late tonight, especially in the valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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On Monday, ridging continues to move over Maine, bringing a
brief period of calm and dry conditions. Skies stay mostly
overcast, but warm air advection, especially at 850hPa, brings
daytime highs into the low-to-mid 80s throughout Maine. Monday
night, low pressure to the northwest moves north, bringing
another frontal system through New England. Cold air ahead of
approaching warm front, so overnight lows in the 60s. Plenty of
moisture associated with this system moving in, bringing a
chance of rain showers from the northwest down the the southeast
by daybreak on Tuesday. Pressure gradient begins to tighten,
causing southerly flow to increase overnight.

On Tuesday, low pressure system to the northwest moves
northeast, as the associated warm front sweeps through New
England. Maine will be in the warm sector during this time,
helping raise temperatures back up into the high 70s and mid
80s. With this system, there is a slight potential for some
severe weather, if convection is able to fire off. Favorable
shear and PWAT values ranging from 1.7-2 inches, indicate that
if any storms did develop, the main concerns would be heavy
downpours and/or gusty winds. Elevated CAPE/CIN/helicity values
look less impressive than previous model runs. Lapse rates
continue to not indicate anything special either. Since most of
the instability is elevated, some lifting mechanism would be
needed in order to support parcel lifting. This could depend
then on the speed of the associated cold front. At this point,
severe threat confidence is low. Moderate confidence that some
thunder could rumble. High confidence in rain falling.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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After this system, a trough and cold front moves through Maine,
with a potential for some more rain and a few thunderstorms.
Low pressure in Canada moves to the northwest on Friday, with
high pressure to the southwest. This system does seem to bring a
tightening pressure gradient, which could lead to some gusty
winds. Generally, highs in the 70s/80s. Overnight lows in the
50s/60s. Looking at another wet wet weekend with some scattered
rain showers associated with this incoming low system later in
the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
IFR conditions in low clouds this morning will improve to MVFR
over the south around midday then VFR late this afternoon. IFR
conditions over the north should improve to MVFR late this
afternoon. VFR conditions over the south and MVFR conditions
north may drop to IFR in some fog late tonight. Winds light and
variable today and tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Monday - Monday night...Mainly VFR conditions. IFR fog possible
over Downeast terminals Monday morning. Light W winds becoming
S by Monday evening, at 5-10kts.

Tuesday  Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR conditions in -SHRA/TSRA.
Limited potential for TS on station. Thunderstorm could lead to
heavy downpours and gusty winds. Potential for some fog
development in valleys and coastal areas early Tuesday morning.
Winds from the S at 5kts, becoming SW at 5-10kts, with gusts up
to 20kts, on Tuesday evening.

Wednesday  Wednesday night...VFR conditions. Winds from the W
at 5-10kts, gusting up to 20kts, becoming SW Wednesday evening.

Thursday - Thursday night...MFVR conditions as rain showers
move in. Limited potential for afternoon/evening TS. W wind 10
to 15kts becoming SW by evening.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light today and tonight. Seas around 4 ft today
and 3 ft tonight. Humid air over the colder waters will likely
result in some patchy fog and mist today and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Potential for marginal Small Craft conditions on
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Winds light on Monday, becoming SW
by evening time. Generally becomes W at 5-10 kts by Sunday
evening. Potential for some overnight fog Monday night. Chance
for rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...Bloomer/Brennan
Marine...Bloomer/Brennan