Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191012 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 612 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will continue to build south from Canada through Tuesday. Low pressure tracking off the Mid-Atlantic coast will pass south of the Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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605 AM Update... Patchy mid level clouds were moving across eastern portions of the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures were ranging from the single digits below zero across portions of the north Maine woods, to the low to mid teens central and downeast areas. Brisk northwest winds early this morning were resulting in wind chill values as low as -18F at the Frenchville airport in far northern Maine this hour. More clouds were seen on satellite rotating through the Gaspe and these will make their way toward northern Maine a bit later this morning. Current forecast still looks good so no major changes with this update. previous discussion Low pressure at the surface and aloft will remain nearly stationary near Labrador through tonight. At the same time, strong high pressure south of Hudson Bay will slowly build east. The pressure gradient between these two systems will continue to keep a brisk northwest flow across the region today with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible this afternoon. Some moisture will continue to wrap down across northern and central areas around the upper low through tonight. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across northern and central areas. An isolated afternoon snowshower or flurry will be possible, especially across the crown of Maine. Elsewhere, across down east areas, expect mainly sunny skies today. High temperatures this afternoon will run a good ten to fifteen degrees below the seasonal normals for this time of year. High pressure will continue to remain to our west tonight while the surface and upper lows near Labrador slowly move east. Expect continued northwest flow tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies north and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies down east. Lows tonight will continue a bit below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Any cloudiness and flurries from Mon ngt will end across Nrn areas Tue morn, with skies becoming ptly to msly sunny by aftn. Hi temps Tue aftn will recover to closer to seasonal norms. Fair skies Tue ngt will give way to increasing hi cldnss from the S ovr Downeast areas by Wed morn as low pres tracks E off the mid Atlc states. Hi/mid cldnss will then slowly spread nwrd Wed into Wed ngt as the sfc low pivots slowly to movg NE toward Nova Scotia. The consensus of 00z dtmnstc/ensm longer range models brings snfl into Downeast areas by Wed eve newrd perhaps as far N as NE ME by erly Thu morn before steady snfl moves E of our FA by Thu aftn leaving sn/rn shwrs and Sfc-BL temps warm abv fzg. The best chance of any wntr wx hdln snfl with this system will be ovr Washington county attm, but is still not a certainty from this vantage point of the fcst. Lesser to little or no snfl is xpctd ovr the rest of the Rgn durg this tm. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Whats left of any sn shwrs/flurries will end across the Rgn by late Thu ngt as upper low pres exits NE. After ptly to msly sunny skies Fri, cldnss and possible flurries and sn shwrs will move back N to S across the Rgn Fri ngt and Sat and cont into Sun as whats left of upper level low pres retrogrades back SW ovr the FA from the NE. Expect near seasonal temps durg this tm frame, although with reduced diurnal/nocturnal temp ranges due to cld cvr and increasing NE winds. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through tonight, except for the northern TAF sites (i.e. KFVE/KCAR/KPQI) which may see an MVFR cloud deck moving in a little later this morning, possibly into the afternoon hours, and again late tonight. Gusty northwest winds can be expected today with gusts up to 30 kt possible across the northern most terminals. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR conditions are xpctd Tue thru Wed. MVFR and possible IFR conditions will spread SW to NE across the TAF sites Wed ngt into Thu, spcly KBHB to KHUL. Conditions improve to VFR Thu ngt and cont so on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect into this evening for wind gusts up to 30 kt. Winds/seas will gradually subside tonight. Light freezing spray will be an issue this morning and again tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns Tue and Tue ngt with winds increasing Wed to possible gale force spcly outer waters by late in the day contg til Thu morn, then decreasing back to SCA Thu aftn/eve then back to no hdlns again by Fri. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS guidance blend for fcst wv hts thru these ptns of the fcst. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.