Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210942 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 542 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west today. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday followed by a cold front for late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Canadian high pressure will then build toward the region Wednesday afternoon and night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update 5:45 AM: Have adjusted wind, temperature, and dew point. No other changes. Low pressure is located to the north of the region and will produce gusty winds today. At the same time high pressure over the Great Lakes will build in from the west and crest over the region tonight. Dry conditions are expected through tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... By Tue mrng, expect temps to hv risen into the 40s as wmfnt mvs in fm system ovr Canada. Srly flow wl increase cld cvr and dwpts drg the day on Tue. May see an isold shower early in the mrng acrs the north and west. CWA wl be sandwiched in btwn two areas of frcg on Tue with system to our north acrs srn Quebec and another system in the Great Lks. Isold-sctd showers possible drg the day on Tue CWA- wide with QPF amnts only ranging arnd a few hundredths of an inch thru 00z Wed. By Tue night frontal bndry wl be draped nr nrn Maine/Quebec brdr with vry little mvmnt being shown until Wed mrng. Zonal flow aloft gives way to nw flow as potent vort max drops twd the area aft 15z Wed. Cdfnt looks to be located nr interior Downeast areas by 18z and this may result in destabilizing airmass, thus hv added in slgt chc for thunder acrs srn sections with the exception of immediate coastal areas as they wl be cooled as a result of onshore flow. Maxes on Wed wl range fm the m/u50s ovr the St. John Vly to nr 70 ovr srn areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Hipres dominates the wx pattern Wed night thru Thur bfr next wv drops into CWA Thur night bringing showers back to the region into Fri mrng. Pretty progressive wv wl be a quick-hitter with some med range guidance indicating another wv mvs thru the area Fri night while CMC builds sfc high in. Only a few GFS ensemble members indicate another wv mvg thru lending credence to just slgt chc pops on Fri night. Models diverge for the synoptic system expected ovr the weekend. GFS and CMC indicate hires holds on thru Sun mrng while EC is not so insistent and brings showers into CWA Sat aftn. Either way it appears the weekend and possibly into the first half of next week will be rainy. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions next 24 hours. SHORT TERM: VFR Tue morning through Thursday. May potentially see MVFR restrictions Wed morning across the north in showers and Wed afternoon for southern terminals. Possible MVFR restrictions again late Thur night into Fri morning before improving to VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam/Gfs for winds. For Waves: The primary wave system is currently long period southerly swell (around 4 feet/8 seconds). Also expect a secondary southwest wind wave system (around 1 foot/5 seconds) to develop this afternoon and persist into the early evening. Will use NWPS to initialize the waves however boundary conditions feeding into NWPS still appear to have a high bias (probably the result of colder sea surface conditions outside the NWPS Domain) so will adjust wave heights 1 foot lower through tonight. Total Water Level: Will lower Base Tide Anomaly to 0.20 through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain blo SCA levels through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Winds expected to gust to 20-30 mph this afternoon across the north where min RH values are forecast to be between 30 and 35%. For southern areas min RH values will drop just below 30% however wind gusts will also be lower in these areas. Thus have issued Special Weather Statement to address hazardous fire condition as red flag criteria is not expected to be met this afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Mignone Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Mignone/Farrar Marine...Mignone/Farrar Fire Weather...Mignone/Farrar

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