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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 192216
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
616 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracking to our west will lift north of the area
tonight. A cold front following the low will cross the region
Sunday morning. High pressure will build in from the west on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6:16 pm update: Rain will overspread the region from the
southwest this evening. The rain will likely not reach the far
northeast corner of the state until around 10 pm. The rain will
end by around or shortly after midnight in the Greater Bangor
Region, and before daybreak in the far northeast portions of the
cwa. Made a few very minor tweaks to the forecast based on the
latest observations, radar trends, and near term model trends;
but overall the forecast is in very good shape.

Previous discussion:
Low pressure lifting to our northwest this evening will pull an
area of moisture north producing rain, beginning Downeast early
to mid evening and then over the north late this evening. The
air remains dry across the region and rain will likely take a
while to reach the ground as it moistens the air. Most of the
rain will occur from late this evening through the midnight
hours. The initial stratiform surge of rain will then quickly
lift away to the northeast later tonight as precipitation tapers
off to drizzle and spotty showers. Moisture along a cold front
following the low early Sunday morning will then produce a more
organized band of showers as it pushes through mid to late
morning Sunday. The front will push offshore early Sunday
afternoon. This is a fast moving system and clearing will set
into the north early Sunday afternoon and then reach Downeast
late Sunday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Clearing skies are expected Sunday night behind the cold front.
Yet another cold front is expected to begin to cross the area on
Monday before it tends to wash out across central and downeast
areas during Monday afternoon. A dry frontal passage is expected
on Monday but gusty northwest winds are expected, as a deep
mixed layer is forecast by the model soundings. The strongest
winds are expected to be across the north, where gusts as high
as 40 mph will be possible. The gusty northwest winds and
dewpoints in the 20s will lead to potential fire weather
concerns on Monday, especially across northern areas. Monday
night will be mainly clear. Looks like there will at least be
the potential for some patchy frost across across far northern
Maine, especially northwest Aroostook. Tuesday will see
increasing clouds in advance of an approaching cold front from
the northwest as well as a weak disturbance sliding by to our
south. There will be the chance for afternoon shower Tuesday
afternoon. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be close to
or even a bit above seasonal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another front will begin to cross the region Tuesday night
through Wednesday with the chance for showers. Fair weather is
expected Wednesday night. A warm front will cross the region
later Wednesday night and Thursday followed by a cold front
Friday. Another system may affect the region later next
weekend. Temperatures through the period will be near or a bit
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions early this evening will lower to IFR
from south to north during mid to late evening as lower clouds
and rain move in. IFR conditions are expected into early Sunday
morning. Conditions will then improve to VFR from northwest to
southeast during the midday and afternoon Sunday as the low
clouds and rain move away.

SHORT TERM: VFR Sunday night and Monday. Gusty northwest winds
are expected on Monday. Generally VFR Monday night through
Thursday, although brief MVFR is possible at times in scattered
showers Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA for southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 kt is
expected across the offshore waters late tonight into Sunday
morning as low pressure lifts north of the area. Winds should
diminish Sunday afternoon following a cold front.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory for seas may be needed Sunday
evening, otherwise no headlines expected for much of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Duda
Long Term...Duda
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Duda
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Duda