Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 192216 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 616 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking to our west will lift north of the area tonight. A cold front following the low will cross the region Sunday morning. High pressure will build in from the west on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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6:16 pm update: Rain will overspread the region from the southwest this evening. The rain will likely not reach the far northeast corner of the state until around 10 pm. The rain will end by around or shortly after midnight in the Greater Bangor Region, and before daybreak in the far northeast portions of the cwa. Made a few very minor tweaks to the forecast based on the latest observations, radar trends, and near term model trends; but overall the forecast is in very good shape. Previous discussion: Low pressure lifting to our northwest this evening will pull an area of moisture north producing rain, beginning Downeast early to mid evening and then over the north late this evening. The air remains dry across the region and rain will likely take a while to reach the ground as it moistens the air. Most of the rain will occur from late this evening through the midnight hours. The initial stratiform surge of rain will then quickly lift away to the northeast later tonight as precipitation tapers off to drizzle and spotty showers. Moisture along a cold front following the low early Sunday morning will then produce a more organized band of showers as it pushes through mid to late morning Sunday. The front will push offshore early Sunday afternoon. This is a fast moving system and clearing will set into the north early Sunday afternoon and then reach Downeast late Sunday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Clearing skies are expected Sunday night behind the cold front. Yet another cold front is expected to begin to cross the area on Monday before it tends to wash out across central and downeast areas during Monday afternoon. A dry frontal passage is expected on Monday but gusty northwest winds are expected, as a deep mixed layer is forecast by the model soundings. The strongest winds are expected to be across the north, where gusts as high as 40 mph will be possible. The gusty northwest winds and dewpoints in the 20s will lead to potential fire weather concerns on Monday, especially across northern areas. Monday night will be mainly clear. Looks like there will at least be the potential for some patchy frost across across far northern Maine, especially northwest Aroostook. Tuesday will see increasing clouds in advance of an approaching cold front from the northwest as well as a weak disturbance sliding by to our south. There will be the chance for afternoon shower Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be close to or even a bit above seasonal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another front will begin to cross the region Tuesday night through Wednesday with the chance for showers. Fair weather is expected Wednesday night. A warm front will cross the region later Wednesday night and Thursday followed by a cold front Friday. Another system may affect the region later next weekend. Temperatures through the period will be near or a bit above normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions early this evening will lower to IFR from south to north during mid to late evening as lower clouds and rain move in. IFR conditions are expected into early Sunday morning. Conditions will then improve to VFR from northwest to southeast during the midday and afternoon Sunday as the low clouds and rain move away. SHORT TERM: VFR Sunday night and Monday. Gusty northwest winds are expected on Monday. Generally VFR Monday night through Thursday, although brief MVFR is possible at times in scattered showers Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA for southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 kt is expected across the offshore waters late tonight into Sunday morning as low pressure lifts north of the area. Winds should diminish Sunday afternoon following a cold front. SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory for seas may be needed Sunday evening, otherwise no headlines expected for much of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Duda Marine...Bloomer/CB/Duda

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