Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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237 FXUS61 KCAR 250413 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1213 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the area tonight and stall over the north on Friday. The front will push south across the region as a cold front Friday night. High pressure will build to our north on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 12:13 am Update: Light showers continue across northern and eastern sections of the cwa early this morning, mainly across northern and eastern Aroostook County. The QPF has been quite light with only a couple to at most several hundredths of an inch of rain observed as of midnight. A few spots in the far northeast corner of the CWA may see a wetting rain of a tenth of an inch. Only very minor adjustments at this time based on the midnight observations and latest radar and near term model trends. Orgnl Disc: A warm front lifting across the area tonight will bring a mostly cloudy sky over the north with partial cloudiness expected Downeast. A few showers are possible over the far north overnight as the front stalls and some moisture streams down along the front. High pressure to the south combined with a weak low dropping southeast through Quebec will then funnel in much warmer and more humid air across the region on Friday. Our focus then turns to the potential for some thunderstorms along and just south of the frontal boundary during the midday and afternoon Friday. Capes on the NAM are up to 700 J/Kg across northern and central areas with the GFS capes around half of that. A small low sliding southeast through Quebec and into the Maritimes Friday afternoon will begin to pull the front south as a cold front late Friday afternoon. Convergence along this front will likely develop some thunderstorms across northern and central areas Friday afternoon. Winds will be strong aloft so gusty winds will be possible with any of these storms. Will keep gusty winds and small hail wording in the forecast. Friday will be warm with highs from the low 70s north to upper 80s in some interior Downeast locations. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front will track southward across the area Friday night. The risk of damaging convective winds and hail continues until midnight as an inverted V structure may persist into the evening. Thunderstorms may be possible later in the night if an upper level shortwave trough materializes as advertised by GEMS. The most notable feature besides the thunderstorm risk will be a warm and humid night...by northern Maine standards. Temperatures will remain near 70F at Bangor until late in the night with dew points near 60F. Even areas close to the coast won`t receive the usual cooling sea breeze. Cooler air will arrive in northern Aroostook after midnight with lows dropping to the 40s in the Saint John Valley by daybreak Saturday morning. The cold front will exit the coast on Saturday morning with a few showers and skies will be clearing by afternoon on the coast. A large dome of high pressure will provide a decent day for the area with sunny skies north all day and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Humidity will drop off considerably on Saturday. Offshore winds mean lower 70s right to the coastline...much cooler than Friday, but warmer than the rest of the holiday weekend. The high builds over the entire area Saturday night with good radiational cooling in the north and lows in the 30s. Some high clouds further south will limit lows to the 40s. The high continues over the area on Sunday with a trend towards increasing high clouds over cooler air under an inversion. Temperatures along the coast will nosedive with an onshore flow limiting Sunday`s highs to the 50s while northern Aroostook will benefit from warming south winds and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Have reduced pops for Sunday as the high looks stronger with very dry air at the surface. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The high hangs on Sunday night into Monday at the surface with the cold wedge at the surface under increasing high clouds. With the increased clouds, dropped highs towards 60F for most the area on Monday with 50s on the coast. Have some concerns that it could be even cooler. Did bump up pops gradually Sunday night into Monday to chance as an upper trough approaches and the risk of some overrunning warm frontal precip increases. Expect fog and low clouds to finally arrive on the coast later Monday into Monday night. A cold front on Monday night further increases pops and elevated instability brings the chance of thunderstorms. The cold front exits the area Tuesday morning and a decent stretch of weather follows with increasing temperatures each day Tuesday into Thursday. Strong gusty winds are a threat on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday may be even warmer than advertised with a building upper level ridge and powerful subsidence accompanied by warm SW winds. Offshore winds will ensure warmer temps on the coast Tuesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected tonight into Friday morning across the north although some far northern places may briefly drop to MVFR late tonight. Some patchy low clouds may lower conditions to IFR along the coast at times overnight as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Briefly gusty thunderstorms on Friday may lower conditions to IFR at times during the midday and afternoon, especially over central and northern areas. Downeast will be VFR most of the day with a warm gusty wind. SHORT TERM: Thunderstorms are possible with a cold front Friday night with tempo IFR vis. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated across the area until Monday when MVFR cigs arrive into the area from the southwest. IFR conditions are likely with fog and stratus on Monday night. VFR returns during Tuesday with very gusty NW winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up late tonight through Friday for westerly winds gusting up to 25 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible over the intracoastal waters. Warmer and more humid air moving in from the southwest may produce some mist over the waters late tonight through Friday. SHORT TERM: The SCA will wind down Friday evening. At this point, not expecting thunderstorms with a cold front crossing early Saturday morning, but will have to keep an eye out for this possibility. Behind the cold front, there`s nothing significant expected until fog arrives ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon and lingers into early Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...CB/VJN/MCW Marine...CB/VJN/MCW

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