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081
FXUS61 KCAR 100552
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
152 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure will slowly approach today into Friday
followed by high pressure Friday night into Saturday. Another weak
trough will approach Sunday into Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The vertically stacked trof will continue to progress towards
the state today. Vorticity models indicate a vort max over the
Gulf of Maine which will help push showers across the waters and
coastal Downeast today. This system will become stagnant which
will slow the progression of the trof. High res models are in
disagreement with the timing of the rain moving into the western
border, but majority is expected by the afternoon. Upper air
model soundings show instability increasing in the afternoon
with the boundary ahead of the trof. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to be confined to the north with
isolated thunderstorms possible in the Central Highlands.

For tonight, the axis of the trof will move across New England
and into the state. Instability should stick around in the north
with the surface boundary providing the lift. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible across the north. Though cloud
cover will keep temps mild through the night, calm winds and a
moist boundary layer will help with the develop patchy to areas
of fog across the region.

For Friday, the boundary will move across the state. The main
concern will be the increasing CAPE, steepening lapse rates, and
increasing bulk wind shear by the afternoon. As of this update,
SPC has areas north of the Central Highlands in a marginal
threat for strong thunderstorms.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The upper trough affecting us through the end of the week will be
lifting out to the northeast Friday night as weak surface high
pressure and upper level ridging move in. This will bring a partly
cloudy and tranquil night with patchy fog overnight. High pressure
will remain over the area on Saturday bringing a partly to mostly
sunny and tranquil day. Surface high pressure will begin to slide
east of our area Saturday night. Moisture wrapping into the region
behind the high will bring a partly to mostly cloudy night over the
south. Some low clouds may begin to move in from the ocean. Northern
areas will remain drier and therefore mostly clear.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will slide to our southeast on Sunday as a
broad but shallow upper trough begins to push in from the west. We
will still be under the influence of an upper ridge over the area
which will bring a partly sunny and very warm day. A few showers or
isolated thunderstorms may begin to push into far western areas late
in the day. Sunday night will then become mostly cloudy as moisture
advects into the area in the return flow behind high pressure Sunday
night. The surface high will continue moving away to the west on
Monday as the weak upper trough slowly pushes in. This will bring an
increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly across
western and northern parts of the region. A chance for showers and
scattered thunderstorms will continue Monday night with a weak
shortwave sliding across the area. Very weak surface high pressure
and upper ridging will follow for Tuesday bringing a partly sunny
day on Tuesday. However, moisture lingering in the low and mid
levels will result in a continued low chance for showers and
thunderstorms, mostly over the north. Upper ridging building over on
Wednesday will bring a mostly sunny and very warm day. Inland highs
should reach the mid to upper 80s by mid-week.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions today and
tonight with possible MVFR/IFR in PQI & HUL due to patchy fog
this morning. MVFR this afternoon in rain showers.

BGR...Mainly VFR today, then IFR/LIFR tonight in patchy fog.

BHB...Conditions quickly dropping to IFR/LIFR this morning in
fog. Then improving to MVFR for the rest of today. IFR/LIFR
returns tonight in fog and low cigs.

Light SE winds becoming 5-10 kts this afternoon. Then back to
light and variable tonight.


SHORT TERM:
Friday night...VFR, except possibly briefly dropping to MVFR or IFR
in patchy fog late. Wind light and variable.

Saturday...VFR. Light S wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR south late. Light S
wind.

Sunday...MVFR or IFR south, becoming VFR. VFR north. Light S wind.

Sunday night...MVFR dropping to IFR in low clouds. Light S wind.

Monday...MVFR becoming VFR over the north late morning and VFR south
during the afternoon. Light SW wind.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions today
and tonight.


SHORT TERM:
Winds will be light and seas around 2 ft late this week and
through the weekend into early next week. Some patchy fog and
mist may limit visibilities, especially early next week as
humidity rises.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...LaFlash/Bloomer
Marine...LaFlash/Bloomer