Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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967 FXUS61 KCAR 240444 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1244 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push offshore tonight. High pressure will approach on Thursday. The high will crest along the East Coast Thursday night as a warm front lifts across the region. The warm front will stall over the north on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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12:30 AM Update... Main change was to bump cloud cover up some through 12z to account for cloud cover associated with an upper-level vort max moving into the state from Quebec. Also adjusted temps and dewpoints through 09z to account for current conditions and trends. Increased cloud cover could impact how low temps get, but have left forecast lows unchanged with this update. Orgnl Disc: Light winds and drier air moving into the region late tonight will allow some of the colder valleys across the north to have frost. A frost advisory remains up for eastern areas of the north where the growing season has begun. Thursday will be dry as high pressure crests south of the area. The day will begin mostly sunny. A weak low well to the northwest in Canada will then pull a warm front toward the region Thursday afternoon increasing clouds, mainly over the north. Thursday will be cool with lows from the mid 60s Downeast to near 60 over the north.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Thursday night, a warm front will cross the region and introduce much warmer air for Friday. When the warm front crosses, there is some risk of thunderstorms with instability aloft and a strong upper jet. However, there`s still uncertainty whether the best dynamics will be north of the state...to include the LFQ of that jet. Have added a slight chance of thunderstorms at this point. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the upper 40s to near 50F under a steep and shallow inversion that will break quickly on Friday. Friday is a tough call in terms of the highs. While in the southern half of the forecast area, temperatures will get well into the mid-upper 80s for the second time this month, the frontal positions are uncertain towards northern Aroostook where it could get well into the 80s if the front lifts north of the state. However, the issue remains in doubt and will go with upper 70s for now. Mid 80s will also extend to the coast with strong offshore winds. With a deep mixed layer, winds may gust up to 35mph on Friday...certainly for south of Aroostook County...and in Aroostook County too if temps hit the 80s. A cold front will sag southward across the state Friday afternoon through Friday night. There`s a respectable amount of CAPE and shear such that a few severe cells cannot be ruled out. Freezing levels are also low, so hail could also be a consideration in addition to wind threats. The front reaches the coast by Saturday morning, but it will be a very warm night towards Bangor and Ellsworth with lows in the lower 60s. It will be much cooler on Saturday behind the cold front with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, but some mid and high clouds are expected to linger towards Bangor and the coast as the front stalls offshore. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large ridge of high pressure in Quebec will square off again the stalled frontal boundary south of the state for Saturday night into Monday night. The high will keep skies fairly clear in northern zones, but high and mid clouds will remain further south Saturday night and spread east and north during Sunday into Monday. An onshore flow will develop for Sunday and Monday and keep temperatures in the 40s to low 50s along the coast. The cool marine layer will also spread inland on these days with highs only in the 50s and 60s for most of the area. Pops generally increase Sunday night into Monday as the high slowly moves further offshore, deep upper level southern stream moisture moves northward and an upper trough propagates eastward from the Great Lakes region. A cold frontal boundary will finally push through Monday night and bring warmer and drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds could be an issue both days with a deep mixed layer. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: A cold front will push offshore early this evening. VFR conditions are then expected across the area tonight and Thursday. SHORT TERM: Expect mostly VFR conditions until Monday when IFR and MVFR cigs will be prevalent. There will be a cold front crossing the area Friday afternoon into Friday night with thunderstorms. There will also be strong southwest wind gusts on Friday. These gusts could reach up to 35 mph...mostly south of Aroostook County airfields. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A front pushing offshore early tonight may bring some spotty showers along the coast. An isolated thunderstorm with gusty winds and small hail is possible early this evening. Otherwise, showers will end early this evening. Winds should remain below SCA tonight and Thursday. SHORT TERM: An SCA is possible Thursday night into Friday. Seas may stay up as late as Friday night. Fog risk increases Sunday night into Monday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ002-005-006. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Kredensor/VJN Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Kredensor/VJN/MCW Marine...Kredensor/VJN/MCW

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